By Matt Williamson
Welcome to the 2022 NFL season. Let’s jump into my top games of the week!
Baker Mayfield’s revenge game! Of course, Mayfield will be playing with a lot of emotion and fire in this game, but the Panthers would be wise to run their offense through Christian McCaffrey. DJ Moore has put up over 1,100 receiving yards in each of the past three seasons and now gets the best quarterback he has ever played with in Mayfield, but the Browns have a loaded defensive backfield and Moore shouldn’t have an easy time getting separation.
No team got less out of the tight end position last year than the Panthers, but that is subject to change with Mayfield in control. Mayfield against his former team is a great matchup but so is Myles Garrett against the Panthers first-round pick, Ikem Ekwonu.
Ekwonu is a tremendous prospect, but more suited to uproot defenders in the run game than excel in protection. The Panthers wisely rebuilt what was one of last year’s offensive lines, but you must wonder about continuity and communication with offensive lines with this much change early in a new season. A huge key to this game for Cleveland is pressuring Mayfield. As they know better than anyone, Carolina’s new quarterback’s production craters when he is being harassed.
The Panthers offense averaged the fewest yards per snap in the entire league but is set up much better now with Mayfield, an improved line, and a healthy McCaffrey. However, Cleveland and Carolina’s defense were second and third best in the league respectively in defensive yards allowed per play. Points might be hard to come by.
With Jacoby Brissett at the helm, Cleveland surely will try to control this game on the ground with their great stable of running backs and excellent offensive line. Carolina’s best run defender, Derek Brown, probably will not be 100% for this matchup, which is something to really watch. Cleveland will likely slow the pace of this game on the road and play it close to the vest, so there might not be an abundance of scoring with two new quarterbacks running the show. Brissett can hold the ball too long, which could lead to a big day rushing the quarterback by Brian Burns, and the Browns receiving corps overall are not particularly dangerous.
This is a heavy blitz scheme with excellent pass-rush overall for Carolina. Brissett’s performance for the Dolphins last year was very underwhelming, but he does push the ball down the field, often off play action. But outside of Amari Cooper, the remaining Browns wide receivers have a career total of just 95 receptions and Carolina’s last year’s first round pick, Jaycee Horn, could be a star in the making. Cooper should see plenty of Horn.
Cleveland is likely to feature a lot of multiple tight end groupings and could feature David Njoku more than some might expect, after signing him to a big contract this offseason. Brissett has a history of favoring the tight end position and Njoku very well could end up as the Browns second-leading receiver this year. The Panthers had a -13 turnover differential last year and only Jacksonville was worse. If the Browns win this game, it will likely be on the back of Nick Chubb and their running game, but Carolina’s running back isn’t too shabby either and the Panthers have better weapons (and quarterback play) overall.
The Bengals will have four new starting offensive linemen this year and that group should be much improved. However, left guard is the weak spot and that is likely where Cameron Heyward will spend much of his time. The Steelers have led the NFL in sacks five years in a row and of course are led by reigning Defensive MVP, TJ Watt, who will usually do battle with La’el Collins. Expect the Bengals tight ends to spend much of their time pass blocking when Cincinnati throws the ball in this game. Continuity could be a problem for this rebuilt line.
The Bengals rested all their important offensive players for the entire preseason and Joe Burrow had an emergency appendectomy. The Steelers don’t have a bad secondary, but this group of cornerbacks could have a very difficult time with Cincinnati’s wide receivers, especially Ja’Marr Chase. Chase abused Pittsburgh last year, but only on nine targets in those two matchups. Tee Higgins has faced the Steelers three times and eclipsed 100 receiving yards in two of those matchups. Burrow should see a lot of single high safety looks in this matchup and won’t be bashful about pushing the ball down the field in those situations.
255 of Joe Mixon’s 1,205 rushing yards came against the Steelers last year and Cincinnati only threw the ball 42 times total in those two games. Pittsburgh’s offensive line is their biggest position of concern, including quarterback. The Bengals generated a lot of sacks and pressures last year even without being a big blitz team and Cincinnati limited Najee Harris to just 63 total rushing yards in their two meetings last year. And this defense brings back almost all their major contributors from last year and added Dax Hill in the first round of the draft.
Hill could help against opposing tight ends, a weakness of this defense last year. The Bengals are on a three-game winning streak against the Steelers, but they have won just 12 of the 46 games between these divisional rivals that have been played in the 2000s. Amazingly, this is the first time the Bengals and Steelers have ever met in a Week 1 game.
Reports out of New England this summer, as well as the Patriots preseason action, have not painted a pretty picture of where this offense is at right now and it is still unclear how the coordinating responsibilities will be handled on this side of the ball. The Patriots are also making a lot of schematic changes on the offensive side of the ball.
It might take some time for Bill Belichick to get this thing on the right track, but the Patriots really don’t have an overly talented roster. Plus, they will be dealing with the heat in Miami, a place they have notoriously struggled even in the Patriots best of seasons. The Dolphins have a new head coach but kept the defensive structure in place which means a lot of blitzing, a lot of dime defense, and a lot of man coverage.
Even with Byron Jones out of this lineup for the Dolphins, New England’s weapons should really struggle with this approach which could lead Mac Jones to hold the football a beat longer than he should. Two stars-in-the-making to watch on this defense are Jevon Holland and Jaelen Phillips, both of whom could really assert themselves in their second NFL season. Only three offenses in the league last year averaged fewer yards per play than the Dolphins while New England’s defense was third best in the league.
The Patriots are usually a very man coverage-heavy defense but are rumored to be moving towards more zone concepts. Playing man coverage against Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle doesn’t seem wise. Miami will have more of a commitment to the deep passing game this year as well as setting their receivers up to excel after the catch, but their rebuilt offensive line very well could be the key to the Dolphins season. Two young Patriots defenders that are on the cusp of stardom and might be the two best players on this team before long are Christian Barmore and Kyle Dugger.
This should be a low-paced game with the Patriots best chance of success coming from controlling both lines of scrimmage. The head coaching edge of course goes to the Patriots, but the unrest with the offense is concerning and Miami has a strong home-field advantage as well as a better roster.
There should be a lot of points scored and high-paced action in this game. Arizona’s defense is very light on talent and while the Chiefs put a lot of offseason resources into their defense, expect some growing pains. Only the Ravens defense was worse in yards per play allowed in 2021 than Kansas City.
On a yards-per-play basis, no offense in the league was better than Kansas City last year and the Chiefs punted on the lowest percentage of their drives in the league while converting on the highest percentage of their third down conversions. They get to third downs at the lowest percentage in football, often converting on first or second down.
Blitzing Mahomes is a terrible idea, but can Arizona get consistent pressure on him by only sending four defenders against this excellent Chiefs line? Mahomes should have a lot of time to throw in this matchup and it doesn’t take much expert scouting to realize that is a huge problem for any defense, even with Tyreek Hill no longer in the picture. Kansas City sees a ton of zone coverage as well as two high safety shells.
Expect the Chiefs offensive line to open holes with regularity for Clyde Edwards-Helaire and company, especially against lighter boxes. This is a Cardinals offense that plays more snaps with four wide receivers on the field than any other in the league. Arizona could be without Zach Ertz and DeAndre Hopkins is suspended, but Kyler Murray still has plenty of firepower around him and Trey McBride could be a suitable replacement for Ertz.
If Ertz plays, they could make a dynamic tight end pairing, giving Arizona’s offense a new wrinkle. The fact that Rondale Moore played zero preseason snaps indicates that Kliff Kingsbury looks at the second-year receiver as a foundational weapon early in the season. But will the Cardinals throw Moore the ball well past the line of scrimmage? The Chiefs brought in a lot of new faces on the defensive side of the ball, including numerous promising rookies, but it will be interesting to see how that side of the ball gels early in the year.
Kansas City’s defense really played poorly to open the 2021 season, something they are trying to avoid this year. Only three teams had a better turnover differential last season than Arizona. Kansas City has won seven straight season openers. Giving Andy Reid extra time to prepare very often leads to a Chiefs victory.
Hopefully, these rivals will take up right where they left off last year in a fantastic football game that sent Las Vegas to the playoffs and the Chargers season to an end. It is unlikely that the Chargers will have their free agent prize, JC Jackson, available for this game.
With Davante Adams coming to town, having Jackson would obviously go a long way to figuring out a way to slow down who might be the best receiver in all of football. However, Darren Waller also isn’t at 100%, but it looks like he should play. With the Raiders lack of wide receiver depth after Adams and Hunter Renfrow, they could institute a lot of double tight end sets-something Josh McDaniels is very familiar with from his time in New England and Foster Moreau is a fine second tight end.
This also should help one of the worst offensive lines in the league and in this case, against an elite edge pairing of Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack. This Chargers defense was just awful against the run last year though. McDaniels surely will employ some heavy sets and try to run the ball early and often. To finish out the 2021 season with a playoff spot on the line, Josh Jacobs gashed the Chargers to the tune of 132 yards as Los Angeles nearly gave up more yards on the ground than through the air in that contest.
The Chargers offensive line looks to be in really good shape after two offseasons of bringing in high-quality players up front, but right tackle remains a question and the pairing of Maxx Crosby and Chandler Jones could wreak havoc. However, the Raiders secondary is suspect, and we know that Los Angeles has a great group of receivers for Justin Herbert to throw to. Austin Ekeler and Gerald Everett could also cause big problems for the Raiders linebacking corps in the passing game.
There could be a lot of plays run in this game and both teams likely will play fast. Last year, the Chargers scored the fifth most points per game while Las Vegas’ defense allowed the sixth most points per contest. Games involving the Chargers averaged 54.9 points per game in 2021, the most of any team in the league. The Raiders red zone defense was awful, and no team got to the red zone at a higher rate per drive than Los Angeles’s offense last year. The Raiders -9 turnover differential last year was only better than five teams.
Kirk Cousins has a long history of having a tough time performing well against a big pass rush and Green Bay’s defense is just littered now with early draft picks and has tons of talent. Rashan Gary is poised to take the next step as an elite pass-rusher, but the Packers defense just has talent everywhere you look and might just be the NFL’s best defense in 2022.
Jaire Alexander is a huge key to this game. Green Bay likely will not travel Alexander to face Justin Jefferson, but he is one of the few cornerbacks in the league that could go toe-to-toe with the Vikings outstanding third-year receiver. And when Alexander isn’t aligned over Jefferson, expect the Packers to give him very little help and lean coverage in Jefferson’s direction. Both of these teams were excellent at valuing and protecting the football.
Only two teams had a better turnover differential than Green Bay last year and only four were better than the Vikings. This sets up as a low-scoring game as the Packers feature a potentially elite defense and are obviously working through some things at the wide receiver position to start the year. If the preseason is any indication though, Romeo Doubs should see plenty of action to begin his career. Amazingly, Green Bay has won their last seven straight without Davante Adams in their starting lineup and averaged 31.6 points in those games.
Minnesota’s run defense was a real problem in 2021 and who is to say there aren’t growing pains with the Vikings defense with Mike Zimmer now out of the picture. Plus, the Minnesota cornerback situation is very sketchy. It looks as though Green Bay will have David Bakhtiari back for this game and the Vikings get Danielle Hunter back from injury to team with newly signed Za’Darius Smith.
This series has been pretty even of late with the Vikings winning two of the last three with a three-game winning streak in Minnesota. One last thing to keep an eye on here: The Packers were just abysmal on special teams last year.
Have they fixed that issue? That could be the difference in a low-scoring game.
Dallas scored the most points per game last year. Tampa Bay was second. The Cowboys ran the second most plays per game. The Buccaneers were third. We could see fireworks in this one.
During Tyron Smith’s great career in Dallas, the Cowboys offense has been night and day when he is on the field vs. when he misses time. And Smith is out for this game. It looks as though Dallas might throw Jason Peters right into the mix at left tackle. While Peters is a rare talent and a future Hall of Famer, he wasn’t very impressive the last we saw him, and you must wonder about his conditioning to play an entire game right now. If it isn’t Peters at left tackle, it is very raw first-round pick Tyler Smith, who has been exclusively playing guard to start his career.
The Cowboys left tackle will see a lot of Shaq Barrett, a top 10 type edge pass-rusher. Also, Todd Bowles is a notorious blitzer and will surely challenge this rebuilt offensive line in this respect. Running room should also be very sparse for the Cowboys, putting added pressure on Dak Prescott with a group of pass catchers that is a little suspect outside of CeeDee Lamb.
It also looks as though Jalen Tolbert will be mostly handling slot duties in his first NFL game. These teams met in Week 1 last year and the Cowboys threw the ball 58 times in a losing effort. That was a trend against the Buccaneers last year as their collective opponents ran the ball at a league-low rate of just 33.7%.
Meanwhile, Tampa Bay was the pass-heaviest offense in the league in 2021. Dallas has a good pass-rush, and we should see plenty of Micah Parsons coming off the edge. But Tom Brady is of course, a master at diagnosing defenses and gets the ball out of his hand at an obscenely quick rate while not sacrificing the ability to stretch the field. He rarely gets hit anymore. Tampa Bay’s weapons look a little different this year, but it certainly isn’t a bad group, especially if the Bucs can get something out of Julio Jones early in the year while he is still fresh.
Tampa Bay’s rebuilt interior offensive line will have a lot to prove in this game and early in the season. Both offenses play a fast-paced style which could lead to a lot of points. Dallas’ +14 turnover differential led the NFL last year, but the Buccaneers were not far behind at +10.
