By Matt Williamson
Welcome to Week 6 of the 2022 NFL season. We have a loaded slate of action, so let’s dive into my top games of the week.
Best NFL Week 6 Games
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
This could be the regular season matchup of the year and of course, it is a rematch of an epic playoff battle that no one will soon forget. It also very well could determine in which building these teams meet again before advancing to the Superbowl. Obviously, the quarterbacks are the main attraction.
Josh Allen and Patrick Mahomes are one and two in EPA per play amongst quarterbacks and while the Chiefs offense has a wide lead over the rest of the league, Buffalo’s offense is second in EPA per play. Buffalo’s 4.4 yards per play allowed is better than every defense with the exception of the 49ers. And the Bills 6.7 yards per play on offense is the best in the NFL.
Of the four units, the Chiefs defense is clearly the weakest. The Bills have outscored their opponents by 91 points (by far the best in the league) compared to +34 by Kansas City. Buffalo is also averaging 141.4 more passing yards per game than their opponents this year. Not only is that most in the league, but Tampa Bay is a distant second at 78.2. Allen has been remarkable when under pressure this year, an area of his game that he improved upon from last year.
As we saw last week, having a healthy Gabe Davis is a real difference-maker to Buffalo’s offense. When he is healthy, Allen throws much more deep downfield, which has a great ripple effect for the entire offense. The Chiefs opponents are only running the ball 32% of the time against them, but Buffalo really has no intentions of running the ball. As for the Chiefs offense, they are more well-rounded with Tyreek Hill no longer in the picture.
But Kansas City has one of the NFL’s best offensive lines and Travis Kelce is actually playing better than ever. Buffalo is one of the least blitz-happy defenses in the league and does a tremendous job of getting home with just four rushers. Plus, Mahomes annihilates the blitz. This one could be epic.
Dallas Cowboys at Philadelphia Eagles
After losing in Week 1, Dallas has won four straight sitting one game behind the Eagles in the NFC East. They have more than withstood the loss of Dak Prescott. And actually, they are thriving. And they are playing with house money at this point. Now the Cowboys have a great opportunity to go to Philadelphia and knock off the undefeated Eagles while staking a claim as the top team in the NFC East.
Both of these defenses are surrendering just 4.7 yards per play. Only the Bills and 49ers are better. And both defenses are in the top six in EPA per play. The Eagles have outscored their opponents by 47 points compared to +21 by Dallas. The Eagles +9 turnover differential is four better than the second-best team in the NFL, but Dallas is that second-place team at +5. Really, in just about any metric you study, Philadelphia is at the top of the league. The way the Eagles are now constructed, they can play any type of game thrown at them. And they are fantastic on both lines of scrimmage.
A key to both these teams success thus far was been great efficiency on first downs, especially throwing the ball. However, these two defenses rank second and third in yards allowed per pass attempt and the Cowboys pass rush is ferociously led by Micah Parsons. Dallas just isn’t scoring enough touchdowns though, something that could really bite them against such a strong opponent. And you must wonder if the league is getting a book on Cooper Rush. And Philadelphia will be a brutal environment for Rush.
No matter the result, Dallas is in a great position now to get into the playoffs, something few saw coming when Prescott went down.
Minnesota Vikings at Miami Dolphins
The Vikings travel South to take on a Skylar Thompson-led team. The Dolphins are on a two-game losing streak but are undefeated this year at home. Meanwhile, Minnesota is riding a three-game winning streak. Despite being 4-1, the Vikings have only outscored their opponents by 13 points. Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson are playing at extremely high levels right now and the Vikings have a very solid offensive line.
This has been a very steady methodical attack by Minnesota, but it lacks in the big play category. Miami’s defense gives up 6.1 yards per play. Only three are worse and only three defenses are worse in EPA per play as well. But the Dolphins run defense hasn’t been the problem. Slowing down the Vikings on first down and putting Kirk Cousins behind the chains will be hugely important, something Minnesota’s opponents have found very difficult to do this year.
Miami is one of just six offenses generating six yards per play or more. But can that keep up with Thomson behind center and with Tyreek Hill battling injury? A very high percentage of Thompson’s throws last week was close to the line of scrimmage. Raheem Mostert has taken over Miami’s backfield as Chase Edmonds snaps have dropped in every game this season.
The Dolphins might have to really rely on their running game in this one, but like Minnesota, they too are much more of a pass-happy offense.
Cincinnati Bengals at New Orleans Saints
2022 hasn’t gone as planned for the Super Bowl runners-up and the Saints, who went all in to win now, have also had a rocky road. Both these teams could really use a Week 6 win. Amazingly, the Bengals average the second-fewest yards per play in the entire league.
The Saints have been tremendous vs. the run and Cincinnati has no ground game to speak of. Along those lines, the Bengals have been the worst offense in the league on first downs and are constantly playing from behind the chains. Joe Burrow has bailed his team out on third downs, but that might not be a sustainable situation. This offense really hasn’t gotten on track, and it could be without Tee Higgins this year, making it much easier to double Ja’Marr Chase, an approach Cincinnati’s opponents are taking heavily even with Higgins on the field.
The Saints have endured a lot of offensive injuries this year, but it has been their defense that most let them down, allowing the 25th most points per game in the NFL. Taysom Hill has accounted for six of the Saints 13 touchdowns this year. That is probably an unsustainable formula, and this offense needs to go through Alvin Kamara. Kamara is coming off his best game of the season, racking up 194 total yards. New Orleans has the NFL’s worst turnover differential and really needs to clean up that aspect of their game. The Saints are scoring touchdowns when they get in the red zone though, but Cincinnati gives up a touchdown on just 8.8% of their drives-the best in the league.
The Bengals have been playing in low-scoring games and could be in for another in New Orleans.
New England Patriots at Cleveland Browns
The Browns have dropped two in a row. But don’t blame their offense. It might shock many that Jacoby Brissett is currently eighth in EPA per play amongst quarterbacks. Brissett and the offense as a whole by no means are the reason for Cleveland’s struggles of late or during the 2022 season. That being said, Bill Belichick is extremely familiar with Brissett, who he drafted in the third round back in 2016.
This is the best rushing team in the NFL and Nick Chubb is the league’s best pure ball carrier.
Chubb is averaging a career-high 6.1 yards per carry as well as a career-high 19.6 carries per game even though Kareem Hunt has been healthy and affective as well. Cleveland has an amazing 11 rushes of at least 20 yards. No other team in the league has more than seven. The passing game is all about Amari Cooper and David Njoku.
New England is generating much more explosive pass plays than the Browns, but Bailey Zappe is a very limited passer. And now the Browns have tape to go off of Zappe. Only the Lions and Seahawks are worse than Cleveland’s defense in EPA per play. The Browns run defense that has been just atrocious, something New England surely will try to exploit on the road with Rhamondre Stevenson as their clear lead back now.
Both teams will be very run-heavy, but New England has the better defense. Getting an early lead will be very important, something that Cleveland does well, and the Patriots have not. A big play on special teams or a crucial mistake could decide the winner here.
