By Scott Kacsmar
The Los Angeles Chargers improved to 10-7, made the playoffs for the first time in the Justin Herbert era, and the only team they blew a fourth-quarter lead to in the regular season was Kansas City (twice).
On the surface, the Chargers moved in the right direction last year. But after a disastrous ending to the season that saw the team blow the biggest lead in franchise history in the playoffs (27 points), it feels like we are stuck at square one with the Chargers wasting Herbert’s rookie contract window.
Herbert has already struck gold with a 5-year extension worth $262.5 million. The cap hits will not be that bad until 2025 when it goes past $37 million and escalates from there. But Herbert is worth the new deal. The question is can the Chargers make his stay worth it by giving him the team he needs to make it a real rivalry with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs, and is Brandon Staley the right coach for this task?
The Chiefs are still the favorite in the AFC, but the Chargers have favorable odds at the sportsbooks to return to the playoffs. Their over/under is 9.5 wins in a stacked AFC.
We look back at 2022’s early turning point, the key offseason changes, the reasons Herbert is not more highly regarded, and the best Chargers bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Chargering Masterpiece
The Chargers are the Atlanta Falcons of the AFC. Both franchises are known for having some great players and seasons, but they never win a Super Bowl because they find the most incredible ways to blow games they should have won. There is even a brand name for the Chargers with “Chargering” when they lose one of these games.
The Falcons had their masterpiece with “28-3” in Super Bowl 51, but the Chargers just tried their best in the playoffs in Jacksonville. However, months before that game there was a sequence that really could have led to a different outcome for the 2022 season, not just for the Chargers but for the whole league.
If you appreciate the butterfly effect, then you will enjoy this. When the history of the 2022 NFL season is written, they will ultimately talk about the Chiefs beating the Eagles in a 38-35 Super Bowl between No. 1 seeds with 14-3 records, the biggest triumph yet for Patrick Mahomes.
But you could argue the single biggest moment in the 2022 NFL season to put things on the path towards that ending happened in a Week 2 game between the Chargers and Chiefs.
The Chargers play the Chiefs better than most teams since Herbert arrived in 2020, and they were doing it again in Week 2 on a Thursday night in Kansas City. The Chargers led 10-0 early and 17-7 in the third quarter before the Chiefs started another comeback. But with the game tied 17-17 in the fourth quarter, the Chargers were driving again.
Herbert found tight end Gerald Everett on back-to-back passes for gains of 7 and 26 yards. Everett was visibly gassed at that point, and he motioned to the sideline for a substitution to catch his breath. His request was ignored, and for a third-straight play, Everett was the target of a Herbert pass, and this one was from the 3-yard line.
A heavily fatigued Everett could barely jog his route and was in no position to make a play for the ball. Herbert’s pass was wide of him and returned 99 yards for a touchdown by Jaylen Watson. The Chiefs never trailed again that night, winning 27-24. According to Next Gen Stats, Kansas City’s 54% increase in win probability on that play is the largest swing for a pick-six in the NFL in the last three seasons.
To make matters worse, Herbert suffered a rib cartilage injury during that fourth quarter. At one point he passed up an easy scramble for a 3rd-and-1 conversion because of the ribs. After a week of being questionable to play against Jacksonville, Herbert suited up and the Chargers were blown out 38-10 at home.
Just like that, Herbert’s MVP campaign was all but over in Week 3, and it may not have been that way if the Chargers just gave Everett a breather in Kansas City.
Herbert, who has never missed a start to injury, looked fine physically as the season progressed. However, the Chargers had major wide receiver injuries to deal with. Keenan Allen was injured in Week 1 after just 22 snaps, then tried to return against Seattle before leaving injured again. By the time Allen returned to the lineup for the big Week 11 rematch at home with Kansas City, No. 2 wideout Mike Williams was injured that night after 6 snaps. Williams had missed the previous two games with injury and was likely brought back too soon.
With these wide receiver injuries, Herbert was trying to adjust to a dink-and-dunk offense that had fewer receivers and a crazy overreliance on passes to running back Austin Ekeler, who averaged an absurd 10.8 targets and 8.2 catches per game in Weeks 6-12.
In a game against San Francisco’s No. 1 defense without Allen and Williams available, Herbert and the offense were held scoreless after halftime, blowing a 16-10 lead in a 22-16 loss.
But the 5-4 Chargers still had some hope with Allen and Williams coming back against the Chiefs that they could stay in this race. Despite Williams playing 6 snaps, Herbert played well and found Josh Palmer for 106 yards and 2 touchdowns on the night. The Chargers led 20-16 going into the fourth quarter, and then 27-23 with 1:46 left after Herbert led a go-ahead touchdown drive.
It was on the defense to stop Mahomes one last time, and they were not up to the task. Travis Kelce scored a touchdown with 31 seconds left to take a 30-27 lead. Herbert had timeouts, but a sack on first down did not help, and then he threw a game-ending interception on a desperation pass. For the second time in the 2022 season, a national audience watched Herbert throw a crucial interception in the fourth quarter against the rival Chiefs after the defense blew the lead. This is how narratives are created.
It was only going into Thanksgiving week, but the AFC West race was essentially over that night after the Chargers blew another lead to the Chiefs. By the season’s end, the Chiefs were 14-3 and the Chargers were 10-7. But if the Chargers could just hold onto these late leads against the Chiefs, both teams could have been 12-5 with the Chargers winning the division on a head-to-head tiebreaker. That is how thin the margin was last year between a division title and Super Bowl for the Chiefs vs. the Chargers having the No. 3 seed and possibly opening the playoffs at home against a Baltimore team without Lamar Jackson.
To the Chargers’ credit, they did not pack things in at 6-6. In fact, they had their best month of defense under Staley during a 4-game winning streak where they allowed 11 points per game. The schedule absolutely helped that streak with the Chargers drawing a Tennessee team with an injured Ryan Tannehill staying in the game, an embarrassing Colts team with Nick Foles at quarterback, and the Rams did not have Matthew Stafford or Cooper Kupp. But that streak started with a 23-17 win over Miami, the only time all season the Chargers beat a team that did not lose 10-plus games.
Before we credit Staley too much, he messed up again in Week 18, losing a game in Denver that the Chargers did not need as they already knew they were going to Jacksonville for the wild card round. You could argue playing starters at all in such a game, but why would you risk injury-prone players like Allen and Williams after the seasons they just had?
Williams was injured in Week 18, and it caused him to miss the playoff game in Jacksonville, a terrible outcome that should go on the coaching staff. Worse, Herbert was still playing into the final minute of the third quarter of this meaningless game even after the Williams injury. Worst of all, Staley had Allen in the game to catch a touchdown with just over 6:00 left to play. The Chargers still lost 31-28.
Despite the Williams situation, the 38-10 loss to Jacksonville in Week 3, and the Chargers going down to Florida, they were still a 2.5-point favorite in this wild-card rematch. After watching the Chargers build a 27-0 lead and intercept four passes from Trevor Lawrence, maybe Herbert’s playoff fortune would be a bright one with the team suddenly playing well above expectations.
Of course, the second half only led to the biggest blown lead in team history and the third-largest blown lead in playoff history. Lawrence rebounded and threw 4 touchdown passes, his fourth coming after the Chargers missed a 40-yard field goal. You know, for the brand.
Up 30-28, Herbert had a chance to end the game on his terms, but a first-down sack led to a quick three-and-out. The Jaguars drove for a game-winning field goal with no time left and the 31-30 comeback win was secure.
Herbert was neither great nor terrible in his playoff debut. Lawrence was both, but he was mostly great after falling behind 27-0, and the Chargers were unable to finish the job again.
Like Gerald Everett in Week 2, the Chargers ran out of gas.
Offseason Review
Going into his third season as head coach, Brandon Staley has changed his coordinators for the first time. Derrick Ansley replaces Renaldo Hill at defensive coordinator, though it is just an in-house promotion as Ansley coached the defensive backs the last two years. Do not expect much change there as it is still Staley’s scheme, which infamously puts little emphasis on stopping the run.
The interesting change is at offensive coordinator where Kellen Moore comes from Dallas to replace Joe Lombardi, who did little to use Herbert’s full arm talent last year even despite the wide receiver injuries. In 2-of-4 seasons as the OC in Dallas, Moore’s offense led the NFL in offensive yards. Moore will keep the pace fast, and give Herbert more freedom, and the running game could see a boost after Ekeler’s efficiency decreased last year.
Ekeler’s rushing success rate dropped from 55.8% to 48% despite having almost the exact same number of carries, yards, and touchdowns as in 2021. His receiving value also diminished through overuse with a career-low 5.7 yards per target and 6.2 yards per catch. With both starting guards going into their second season after playing a lot as rookies, the offensive line has more experience and should be improved.
But aside from getting Herbert to stretch the field more this year, this is an offense that just wants to see better health from the wide receivers. Last year, Keenan Allen missed more games (7) than he did in 2017-21 combined (3). Mike Williams even missed more games in 2022 (5) than he did in 2018-21 combined (3). Despite their reputations, they are usually healthier than they were last year. Herbert not having a rib injury would help too.
But every season for the Chargers just seems like a guessing game in which key players get seriously injured. The defense had its share of health problems last year. Top pass rusher Joey Bosa missed 12 full games and was limited in snaps in any appearance he made after Week 2. The Chargers paid big money for free agent corner J.C. Jones, hoping he would continue picking off passes like he did for the Patriots. But thanks to injury, he was limited to 5 games and played poorly when he was active.
The Chargers added linebacker Eric Kendricks from the Vikings, but this defense needs more than just a guy who will tackle Travis Kelce past the first-down marker. Bosa needs to stay healthy, and Khalil Mack needs to stay engaged beyond the first quarter of the season. Mack had 5 of his 8 sacks in Weeks 1-4 last year.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Can the Chargers Give Justin Herbert the Support He Needs?
Without question, Patrick Mahomes is the best player in the NFL. But when it comes to naming the top quarterbacks behind Mahomes, most people include Joe Burrow, Josh Allen, and Jalen Hurts before they say Justin Herbert. Even Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 pick in the 2021 draft, is starting to get a bump into the elite class after his playoff win over Herbert’s Chargers.
But did people not see how Mahomes (on a high-ankle sprain) and the Chiefs eliminated Lawrence, Burrow, and Hurts in the playoffs last year on the way to winning a Super Bowl? The Chiefs eliminated Allen and the Bills in the playoffs in 2020 and 2021 too.
Let’s give that quartet of quarterbacks (Burrow, Lawrence, Allen, Hurts) a nickname. We will use their initials to call them BLAH for short.
Unlike BLAH, Herbert was great as a rookie, winning Offensive Rookie of the Year and setting a record with 31 touchdown passes. He was even better in his second season when he passed for 5,014 yards, 38 touchdowns, ranked No. 3 in QBR (70.9), and led the Chargers to a 9-8 record with 5 game-winning drives. You could argue Herbert had a better second season than all of BLAH with only Burrow having an argument in 2021.
But saying Burrow was better than Herbert in 2021 because the Bengals were in the Super Bowl is shortsighted and misses so much of the context that explains the difference in perception between Herbert and BLAH.
There is a trio of factors working against Herbert that limits his greatness through no fault of his own.
First, every quarterback is playing in the shadow of Mahomes right now, but Herbert is the only one with potential greatness who has to share a division with him. That puts the Chargers behind the eight-ball every season when the Chiefs have not lost the AFC West since 2015 and are favored again in 2023.
Someone like Lawrence only made the playoffs last year because the Jaguars played in the AFC South where the Titans imploded with a 7-game losing streak to end the year. That includes a Week 18 loss where Joshua Dobbs fumbled a game-deciding touchdown to help Lawrence make the playoffs in the first place. When Herbert finished 9-8 in 2021, he missed the playoffs. A 9-8 record gave Lawrence a division title last year and it was enough for Hurts’ Eagles to make the playoffs in the weaker NFC in 2021.
There is a notion that Herbert is not clutch due to the lack of a playoff win, which BLAH all have on their resume, and the interceptions thrown late in prime-time games against teams like the Chiefs and 49ers last year.
But the data says otherwise.
Career record at comeback opportunities in the fourth quarter or overtime (down 1-8 points with possession):
- Patrick Mahomes: 16-15 (.516)
- Justin Herbert: 10-14 (.417)
- Josh Allen: 11-17 (.393)
- Jalen Hurts: 3-6 (.333)
- Trevor Lawrence: 5-11 (.313)
- Joe Burrow: 5-13 (.278)
Herbert has a better record at making fourth-quarter comebacks than BLAH, and he would be No. 1 among active quarterbacks if the Chargers were great at stopping Mahomes in crunch time like the Bengals usually have been. Even the Bills intercepted Mahomes with the game on the line in Week 6 last year.
In 5 career meetings between Mahomes and Herbert, the Chargers have led in the fourth quarter every time. Herbert led at least one go-ahead drive in every game but the injured ribs game, and he has thrown 3 go-ahead touchdowns against the Chiefs after the 2:30 mark.
Yet, Herbert’s record is 1-4 in those games as Mahomes kept finding ways to get the best of his defense at the end.
Defense is the No. 2 factor working against Herbert compared to BLAH. He has yet to have a good one with the Chargers. Last year, the Chargers finished 21st in points and 20th in yards allowed while allowing the highest rushing yards per carry (5.4) of any defense since 1960.
That also happened to be Herbert’s best defense yet thanks to that 4-game winning streak late in the year against mostly weaker competition. Without that run, it would have been hard to say the Chargers showed any real improvement over 2021’s lousy defense that Staley is supposed to fix but has not achieved yet.
Including the playoffs, Herbert is only 25-25 as a starter, but what would things look like if he had a better defense? Herbert is 19-4 (.826) when the Chargers allow fewer than 27 points, a better record than Allen (51-16, .761), Burrow (27-10-1, .724), and Lawrence (10-9, .526).
The problem is the Chargers have allowed at least 27 points in 54% of Herbert’s starts. Compare that rate to the other active quarterbacks mentioned:
- Herbert: 27+ points in 27/50 starts (54.0%)
- Lawrence: 27+ points in 17/36 starts (47.2%)
- Mahomes: 27+ points in 36/94 starts (38.3%)
- Hurts: 27+ points in 13/38 starts (34.2%)
- Burrow: 27+ points in 11/49 starts (22.4%)
- Allen: 27+ points in 17/84 starts (20.2%)
Lawrence’s rate is inflated by a brutal rookie season under Urban Meyer, but Herbert is the only one above 50%. Even Derek Carr, who had the worst defensive support with the Raiders among active quarterbacks, has a career rate of his team allowing 27-plus points in 45.5% of his starts.
Finally, the third bit of context working against Herbert is that the Chargers have not gone out of their way to give him a big weapon to transform the offense:
- Think about how Allen was before and after Buffalo acquired Stefon Diggs in 2020.
- Burrow was not very good in his rookie year, but the Bengals drafted college teammate Ja’Marr Chase in 2021, and the two instantly clicked with many saying the Bengals have the best wide receiver trio in the NFL.
- Hurts exploded last season with the addition of A.J. Brown, who was already a young stud receiver in Tennessee, a passing offense that fell apart without him.
- The Jaguars made smaller moves last year with the additions of Christian Kirk, Evan Engram, and Zay Jones, but they also put in a trade for Calvin Ridley that should pay off this year for Lawrence.
Since Herbert was already so good as a rookie, we have not seen that big statistical bump come his way thanks to adding a great weapon. This is not to say Herbert is without weapons, but Keenan Allen has always been more of a possession receiver with 11.7 yards per reception and never scored more than 8 touchdowns in a season. He is also 31 years old now.
Mike Williams is another big receiver (6’4”) that the Chargers loved with Philip Rivers, but he only has two 1,000-yard seasons since 2017. It would be nice to see the Chargers have a real speedster for a change, or someone who is great with YAC.
This year, the Chargers used a first-round pick on TCU wideout Quentin Johnston. He should be the No. 3 wide receiver and is great injury insurance for Allen and Williams, but he also may be the weakest prospect of the four wideouts drafted with picks 20-to-23 this year. At nearly 6’4”, he is another receiver in the mold of what the Chargers have specialized in for years, but time will tell if the team regrets passing on Zay Flowers (Ravens) or Jordan Addison (Vikings) for something different.
Frankly, it was a missed opportunity that the Chargers did not fire Staley after the playoff loss and hire Sean Payton before Denver did. Payton would have been a perfect fit for Herbert because there is a Drew Brees vibe to his career right now where he could be one of the most gifted passers the game has ever seen, but he will always be in the shadows of other players for things largely not in his control.
But it would be nice to see a jump in his efficiency stats under Kellen Moore this year if everyone can stay healthy and the defense can achieve mediocrity.
Best Bets for the 2023 Chargers
We loaded a lot of stats into this preview, but one that stands out right now is that the Chargers only beat one team that did not lose 10-plus games last year, and that was 9-8 Miami.
You know the Chargers are going to play in a lot of close games again. They were 9-8 in 2021 and 10-7 in 2022, so they have stayed close to that 9.5 win total under Staley. This year may not be any different, but when you look at the schedule, there are a lot of challenges coming this team’s way. Short of Herbert going MVP mode on the league, this team is going to struggle to get back to 10 wins.
The Chargers not only have tough division games but the Broncos and Raiders should be improved after combining to blow 11 fourth-quarter leads in 2022 (most in the NFL by any two teams). The Broncos acquired Payton to fix Russell Wilson, and Jimmy Garoppolo could be an improvement over Derek Carr for Josh McDaniels.
Outside of the division, the Chargers also have to play the Jets, Ravens, Cowboys, and Bills. They go to New England, which has always been a disaster against Bill Belichick. They also play the NFC North, which may not produce a great team this year, but all four teams could be competitive and give the Chargers some problems.
Even the first game of the season, hosting Miami, could be a huge one for wild card berths again.
Hiring Moore as the new offensive coordinator was a good move, and Herbert to Johnston can become a strong connection for years to come. But as someone who does not believe in Staley or trust this defense to stay healthy, it is too hard to go with the over for this team against this schedule. Take the under for your best NFL bets.
NFL Pick: Los Angeles Chargers under 9.5 wins (+104 at FanDuel)
