By Ian Wharton
The NFL offseason is about to transition to the start of rookie and veteran training camps. This exciting time means we’re right around the corner from the preseason and regular season. It’s only natural to start predicting wins and losses since we know how rosters have settled and the full 2022 schedule has been released.
The playoff picture is a difficult one to project. We think we know the top Super Bowl contenders but there are several wildcards who could burst into the party with the right breaks. This type of parity is what makes the NFL such a great experience for fans.
Our win-less projections heavily weigh roster changes from free agency and the 2022 NFL draft as well as each team’s strength of schedule. Internal development, coaching changes and injury luck can also affect how the season plays out.
As always, the teams that finished in first place of their division will play similar top foes. Rebuilding teams will benefit from easier schedules.
Let’s jump into our latest projections for win-loss records for every NFL team.
Arizona Cardinals
It’s hard to consider any offseason good when a roster loses its best pass catcher (DeAndre Hopkins) to a six-game suspension. The Arizona Cardinals also lost Chandler Jones and Christian Kirk to free agency. Adding to the list of negatives, the franchise faced a near-crisis when drama was building around quarterback Kyler Murray’s contract situation in late February.
The Cardinals have made significant progress after a rough start to the offseason. Re-signing tight end Zach Ertz, receiver A.J. Green and running back James Conner ensured the offense wouldn’t lose too much with Hopkins out. Their draft-day trade for receiver Marquise Brown was a home run move that reunites the speedy playmaker with his college quarterback.
As of this week, Murray just agreed to a five-year, $230.5 million deal that locks him in place for the foreseeable future.
Arizona’s offense should again be effective with Murray surrounded by a solid set of playmakers. The roster lacks depth on both sides of the ball, though. One key injury could derail their playoff push.
Losing Jones puts more pressure on J.J. Watt to stay healthy and for veteran Markus Golden to step into a larger role. Considering Watt has missed 43 games and only played 55 over the last six years, counting on Watt to be their lynchpin is risky.
Expect Arizona to once again be an exciting team with a fun offense but one that regresses into a borderline wildcard threat. Having the second-hardest strength of schedule will push their young talent beyond what they can handle and expose the razor-thin talent along the offensive line and in the secondary.
Projection: 9-8
Atlanta Falcons
The rebuilding process can simultaneously be fun and extremely difficult to endure. The Atlanta Falcons fully embraced their overhaul after trading franchise icon Matt Ryan to the Indianapolis Colts. Marcus Mariota is a fine stopgap who may be able to rekindle what seemed like a promising start to his career, but it’s likely third-round rookie Desmond Ridder quarterback will earn starts eventually.
Atlanta has talented young playmakers to put around Mariota and Ridder. Second-year tight end Kyle Pitts is already a star. Rookie receiver Drake London and running back Tyler Allgeier will provide glimpses of an offense that can be dynamic as they develop together over the next few years.
But young players lack consistency. For every splash play will be several mistakes. And this offense can’t afford many mistakes to cover for this defense.
The headlining talent on defense is impressive. Defensive tackle Grady Jarrett, rookie edge-rusher Arnold Ebiketie and cornerbacks A.J. Terrell and Casey Hayward are great talents. Everything around them comes with a considerable number of question marks.
Atlanta will face many growing pains throughout the season. 2022 is about building a foundation. That means the wins will be few and far between.
Projection: 4-13
Baltimore Ravens
The Baltimore Ravens are this year’s most boom-or-bust team in the NFL. It’s reasonable to expect that team that went 8-9 despite leading the league in adjusted games lost to perform better when they have their full cabinet of playmakers available. Especially when the Ravens might have made the playoffs if only Lamar Jackson was healthy for all 17 games.
If the Ravens get a full season of high-caliber play from Jackson, J.K. Dobbins, Ronnie Stanley, Marcus Peters and Marlon Humphrey, they could absolutely land the AFC’s No. 1 seed. It helps the Ravens have the NFL’s 23rd-ranked schedule as well as all of that returning talent. Baltimore also added a strong draft class that will help bolster several positions of need.
There’s also a possibility their returning stars aren’t able to reach or maintain their previous high level of play. Or they suffer reinjury or a cascading injury. Torn ACLs (Dobbins and Peters) and ankle injuries (Stanley) aren’t guaranteed to bounce back at full health and never come back. And in the deep AFC North, missing a handful of games from any of their stars could cost them meaningful games.
We also need to see if Rashod Bateman and a cast of young receivers can overcome the trade of Marquise Brown to Arizona. All-Pro tight end Mark Andrews will certainly be a featured weapon once again in Brown’s absence.
Playing fourth-place teams from the AFC East and NFC South as well as the Jacksonville Jaguars and New York Giants will help counter some of their AFC North troubles. Expect Baltimore to be hyper-competitive and push to win the division or a wildcard seeding.
Projection: 10-7
Buffalo Bills
Even the team that may be the best overall roster has their fair share of concerns. The Buffalo Bills walked out of the offseason with an impressive haul of on-field additions. The loss of offensive coordinator Brian Daboll to the New York Giants could cause issues if former quarterbacks coach and passing game coordinator Ken Dorsey doesn’t prove as innovative as a playcaller.
If Dorsey can fill Daboll’s shoes as a high-end play designer and playcaller, the Bills will make a strong play for the AFC’s top seed. Led by star quarterback Josh Allen, the Bills boast the league’s most dangerous offense. Buffalo wisely beefed up the unit by acquiring Jamison Crowder, O.J. Howard, Khalil Shakir and James Cook.
Even if the Bills’ offense needs time to gel, head coach Sean McDermott has an elite defense to rely upon. By signing star edge-rusher Von Miller and drafting first-round cornerback Kaiir Elam, the Bills made a loud statement that 2022 is their time to push for a Super Bowl. It’s hard to find a major weakness with this roster.
Buffalo is tied for the 12th-hardest schedule and must keep Miami and New England at bay as young, up-and-coming teams. Because this team is so talented, their most difficult challenge may be staying focused through the grueling season and not looking forward towards the playoffs too much.
Projection: 13-4
Carolina Panthers
The Carolina Panthers significantly helped their 2022 outlook after trading for quarterback Baker Mayfield. Prior to the Mayfield trade, the Panthers had one of the two worst quarterback situations in the NFL. While Mayfield has been up-and-down throughout his career and has struggled with injuries, he’s a significant upgrade over Sam Darnold.
If the Panthers get the best out of Mayfield, this roster has the upside to be a feisty competitor. Carolina has a rebuilt offensive line, solid receiving corps and a defense that ranked second in yards allowed. Darnold and Cam Newton led an offense that ranked 31st in touchdown passes and dead last in interceptions, constantly putting the defense in disadvantageous situations.
The bar is low for Mayfield and company to improve. With any luck, Christian McCaffrey can again stay healthy and again be the bellcow for this offense. Mayfield plays his best with a strong running game.
The NFC South will be challenging. Tied for the 12th-hardest schedule, the Panthers will only be a surprise team if they can win coinflip games against Cleveland, New York Giants, Pittsburgh and Detroit. They’re a darkhorse for the surprise of the season if they get the most out of Mayfield and McCaffrey.
Projection: 7-10
Chicago Bears
There’s nothing wrong with a team looking to unearth hidden gems from a modest free agency and host of draft picks. The Chicago Bears purged their roster of expensive veterans after cleaning out their coaching staff. New head coach Matt Eberflus must focus his staff on developing a fast defense and maximizing his unheralded offensive cast around Justin Fields.
Fields is a highly talented second-year quarterback. But he has less talent around him than any quarterback in the NFL. There is immense pressure on David Montgomery, Cole Kmet and Darnell Mooney to elevate an otherwise unimpressive list of names at receiver.
The offensive line must also overachieve compared to expectations. Chicago opted against adding to the unit until the fifth round of the 2022 draft despite being unable to protect Fields last year. Development must come from within.
The Bears’ defense should be more capable considering the talent added to the unit in the draft and who was already there. Robert Quinn, Roquan Smith and Eddie Jackson are difference-making presences. Rookies Kyler Gordon and Jaquan Brisker have the opportunity to prove themselves early as well.
Chicago has the 24th-most difficult schedule but their NFC North foes are difficult. This will be a season with many lumps as the Bears work towards finding more foundational pieces on both sides of the ball.
Projection: 4-13
Cincinnati Bengals
The breakout team of 2021 now has to face a much more difficult path to repeating their Super Bowl journey. Cincinnati will face the third-hardest schedule this season but they have prepared for it. The Bengals aggressively addressed their offensive line woes by adding La’El Collins, Alex Cappa and Ted Karras.
Of course an offense featuring Joe Burrow, Ja’Marr Chase, Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins and a host of talented blockers will reach great heights. The Bengals’ defense is the key to the team, though. En route to the Super Bowl, defensive coordinator Lou Anarumo helped this unit ascend to an elite level.
If the Bengals’ defense can be as stifling against the pass despite lacking a true star cornerback, the AFC North crown could again land in Cincinnati. A post Week 10 bye week stretch featuring showdowns against Tennessee, Kansas City, Tampa Bay and Buffalo will truly test this team’s mettle. If they survive that gauntlet, the Bengals will be a feared playoff foe.
Projection: 11-6
Cleveland Browns
No team has more uncertainty about what to expect this season than the Cleveland Browns due to the legal situation surrounding Deshaun Watson. With the NFL’s investigation and looming punishment for his alledged violations of the Personal Conduct Policy still not determined, the Browns’ range of outcomes varies. Cleveland could land as a sub-.500 team if Watson were to be suspended for the season or be a Super Bowl contender if he plays the majority of games.
With that in mind, if Mike Florio of ProFootballTalk is correct that Watson’s suspension is expected to be between 2-8 games, the Browns’ outlook is more promising. Cleveland has an elite roster from top to bottom with excellent depth at almost every position. If Watson plays at the same level as he showed in Houston, the Browns could be the most balanced offense in the NFL.
The strength of the AFC North means the margin for error is tiny for Cleveland as Watson misses more games. Backup quarterback Jacoby Brissett is a fine stopgap for a few games but there’s also a reason he’s not an established starter. Early season matchups against Carolina, Pittsburgh and the Los Angeles Chargers could swing the fate of the Browns’ season one direction or another.
We’ll predict a winning season for Cleveland with the limited information we have right now. Brissett has played at a similar level as what Baker Mayfield did in 2021 and the Browns still won eight games last year. Getting half a season of Watson should push Cleveland over the .500 mark and possibly well beyond if they make the postseason.
Projection: 10-7
Dallas Cowboys
There may not be a better example of how fast a Super Bowl window can open and close than the 2021-2022 Dallas Cowboys. Dallas had the top-scoring offense last year and benefitted from variety of breakout seasons from defensive stars Micah Parsons, Trevon Diggs and Randy Gregory. Yet they couldn’t win a single playoff game.
This offseason, the Cowboys lost a blend of stars and valuable depth pieces. Gregory bolted for Denver, Amari Cooper was traded to Cleveland and Cedrick Wilson Jr. left for Miami. Dallas retained Michael Gallup but he may miss multiple games as he recovers from a torn ACL.
Dallas still has the talent to win the NFC East but the margin for error is much smaller. Losing top-end talent lowers their ceiling and their peers were able to get better. Both Philadelphia and Washington are real threats to unseat the Cowboys.
Their early schedule is incredibly difficult with matchups against the Los Angeles Rams, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Green Bay Packers, Cincinnati Bengals and Tennessee Titans. They’re good enough to emerge with a winning record and fight for a wild card berth but their ceiling is well short of other top NFC contenders.
Projection: 9-8
Denver Broncos
After searching for a replacement for Peyton Manning for the last six seasons, the Denver Broncos finally landed another franchise star in Russell Wilson. The Broncos managed a 7-10 season in 2021 despite uneven play from Teddy Bridgewater and Drew Lock. While Wilson struggled due to finger surgery last year, he finished the year at his normal efficiency once healed.
Wilson has never been surrounded by such a deep array of explosive playmakers. Denver’s young quartet of Courtland Sutton, Jerry Jeudy, Tim Patrick and K.J. Hamler will benefit just as much from Wilson as he will from them. New head coach Nathaniel Hackett has limitless possibilities with their unique skill sets.
Denver’s defense will be the catalyst for their ultimate destiny. The Broncos defense allowed the third-fewest points and eighth-fewest yards. They also added veteran edge-rusher Randy Gregory, run-stuffing tackle D.J. Jones and slot cornerback K’Waun Williams.
The AFC West is a historically strong this year, so there will be an increased microscope on young foundational defensive blocks Patrick Surtain II and Bradley Chubb to be stars. If they deliver, the Broncos could win the division and progress deep into the playoffs.
Look for Denver to feast on the Jacksonville Jaguars, Carolina Panthers, New York Jets, Seattle Seahawks and Houston Texans
Projection: 10-7
Detroit Lions
The Detroit Lions quickly transformed from a nosediving mess to an inspiring late-season bloomer in 2021. The first season of their rebuild after trading Matthew Stafford led to plenty of lumps. Eventually, a good process led to better results.
In an effort to produce young stars, the Lions revamped their roster through shrewd free agency signings and a few explosive rookies. General manager Brad Holmes and head coach Dan Campbell did well not to splurge on free agents who didn’t fit the timeline of this team. But they did aggressively trade up in the draft to land a potential star in wide receiver Jameson Williams.
Look for Jared Goff and the offense to be more consistent thanks to the additions of D.J. Chark and Williams. Their offensive line is one of the better in the league. Running backs D’Andre Swift and Jamaal Williams are a solid tandem.
Rookies Aidan Hutchinson, Williams, Josh Paschal, and Kerby Joseph will work to prove they’re each foundational blocks for the Lions in 2022. This young roster has plenty to strive for, and the storylines at each positional group run deep. However, the pathway to being more than decent will be difficult due to the defense’s lack of back-seven talent.
This season will be another one of growth for the Lions but their lack of experience and defensive stars will lead to close losses against better teams.
Projection: 7-9
Green Bay Packers
Even after losing All-Pro wide receiver Davante Adams, the Green Bay Packers aren’t quite in danger of giving up their ironclad grip on the NFC North. The Packers still have Aaron Rodgers, a great running game and an elite defense.
Those things still go a long way in 2022.
The Packers’ ceiling has lowered with Adams departing and no proven veteran star added in return. Young receivers Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs will need time to develop into their roles, if they can earn one. Veterans Randall Cobb, Sammy Watkins and Allen Lazard are fine placeholders but aren’t good enough to be difference-makers against top-tier NFC foes.
Green Bay invested its two 2022 first-round picks in linebacker Quay Walker and defensive tackle Devonte Wyatt. They’ll strengthen a run defense that allowed the third-most yards per rush attempt (4.7) in 2021.
Rodgers won’t need to throw for 4,100-plus yards and 37 or more touchdowns because Green Bay’s defense will stifle most of its opponents. The Packers will win the North but still need to prove themselves in the playoffs.
Projection: 11-6
Houston Texans
The Houston Texans are entering the season with a new head coach for the second consecutive year. After firing David Culley following his first season, the Texans decided to promote defensive coordinator Lovie Smith to the lead role. This is a questionable move at best considering Culley’s offense at least showed progress despite working with little talent on that side of the ball.
Smith still needs to prove his ability to develop young talent. Houston has little notable talent on defense outside of rookie cornerback Derek Stingley Jr., safety Jalen Pitre and veteran pass-rusher Jonathan Greenard.
The offense will have tremendous pressure to produce points since the Texans didn’t add significant talent to a unit that finished 27th in points and 31st in yards allowed last year.
Second-year quarterback Davis Mills earned a shot to become the franchise quarterback after he threw for 2,664 yards, 16 touchdowns and 10 interceptions last season.
Mills has a reliable wideout in Brandin Cooks, who’s racked up at least 1,037 receiving yards in six out of eight seasons. Assuming rookie second-rounder John Metchie III fully recovers from a torn ACL, the Texans should have a solid pair of wideouts.
Unfortunately, Mills may not have much help from the running game. Marlon Mack, rookie fourth-rounder Dameon Pierce and 31-year-old Rex Burkhead will battle for touches in the backfield. Mack has played sparingly over the past two years—in part because of a torn Achilles. If Pierce emerges, he can breathe some life into the rushing attack.
There are just too many question marks on the Texans to be confident their staff can elevate an uninspiring roster. That includes whether Smith is the right head coach for a rebuilding roster or if he’s been given a competitive enough team.
Projection: 4-13
Indianapolis Colts
Having the right quarterback can make all the difference for an entire organization. The Indianapolis Colts made the wrong decision to go all-in around Carson Wentz last offseason and paid for their mistake. Wentz fell apart down the stretch of the season and his poor play contributed to why the team missed the playoffs.
Adding Matt Ryan will bring stability and consistency to the unit. Ryan, 37 years old, is much more accurate as a pocket passer and thrives in structure. Wentz has average at best in both of those categories throughout his career. The Colts tried to rely on Jonathan Taylor but even his 2021 rushing crown couldn’t overcome Wentz’s limitations.
Ryan will maximize budding star receiver Michael Pittman Jr. and rookie Alec Pierce. The duo gives Ryan a big-bodied pair who thrive at the catch point. Combined with Taylor, the Colts have the chance to be one of the most efficient offenses in the NFL.
The Colts’ defense can also be quite special. There’s star power on every level, including newcomers in edge-rusher Yannick Ngakoue and cornerback Stephon Gilmore. Adding both to a unit with DeForest Buckner, Darius Leonard and Kenny Moore raise their upside even higher.
Indianapolis has the 26th-ranked strength of schedule and will thrive playing against Jacksonville, Houston and a weakened Tennessee team. It would not be shocking to see the Colts steal the top overall AFC seed because of their relatively easy path, high-level of coaching and improved roster.
Projection: 12-5
Jacksonville Jaguars
We’re about to see the difference a change at head coach can make for a young roster. Without question, the Jacksonville Jaguars should not have hired Urban Meyer last year. They rectified their mistake by bringing in Doug Pederson, a highly respected coach who has a history of producing effective offenses.
The Jaguars also spent furiously in free agency on upgrades across their roster. Value aside, the Jaguars were able to get better on both sides of the ball. There’s no reason this team should look nearly as discombobulated as they did under Meyer.
Jacksonville is closer to being solid now but don’t have a lot of exceptional starpower to push them over the .500-mark. But we’ll see improvement from Trevor Lawrence and a much higher standard of play across the board.
The Jaguars will more than double their win total from 2021.
Projection: 7-10
Kansas City Chiefs
The Kansas City Chiefs traded their most explosive playmaker in wideout Tyreek Hill to the Miami Dolphins, which will change the complexion of the aerial attack.
Though quarterback Patrick Mahomes will continue to play at a high level, he won’t have as many big plays over the top with Travis Kelce, JuJu Smith-Schuster, Mecole Hardman and Marquez Valdes-Scantling, who’s a big-play threat but has a 49.8 percent catch rate. Rookie second-rounder Skyy Moore will likely have to battle the veterans for targets before he becomes a consistent contributor.
Last season, the Chiefs offense struggled through the first half of the season, and the defense came to the rescue. In four games between Weeks 8 and 13, they scored 22 points or fewer but allowed 17 points or fewer and won all of those contests.
Kansas City drafted George Karlaftis in the first round. While he may help the team’s perimeter pass rush, the Chiefs didn’t add a notable veteran run-stopper to plug holes on the interior. They gave up the second-most yards per rush attempt (4.8) in 2021.
Furthermore, the Chiefs lost cornerback Charvarius Ward in free agency. Opposing quarterbacks will target rookie first-rounder Trent McDuffie on the boundary. They also replaced versatile safety Tyrann Mathieu with Justin Reid, who’s missed at least 14.3 percent of his tackles in each of the last two years.
The Chiefs defense could be a major liability and unable to smooth over rough patches if the offense sorely misses Hill.
It’s hard to doubt head coach Andy Reid, Mahomes and Kelce considering their combined success over the last five years. It won’t be pretty, but the Chiefs will find a way to win 10 games in a much tougher AFC West division and five 2021 first-place teams on the schedule.
Projection: 10-7
Las Vegas Raiders
The lone playoff team to make a change at general manager and head coach after the season was the Las Vegas Raiders. Now led by general manager Dave Ziegler and head coach Josh McDaniels, the Raiders are one of the more fascinating teams in the league. Their aggressive offseason spending should keep them competitive in the AFC West.
The Raiders are star-laden on both sides of the ball after adding All-Pro talents in receiver Davante Adams and pass-rusher Chandler Jones. Few offenses can match the Raiders’ top trio of pass catchers (Adams, tight end Darren Waller and receiver Hunter Renfrow) or their pass-rush duo of Jones and Maxx Crosby.
The question is whether this top-heavy approach can overcome a lack of depth along the offensive line and defensive secondary.
McDaniels has experience working with less-heralded trench talent from his tenure in New England so he could make a difference there. New defensive coordinator Patrick Graham has also been highly successful in previous stints, though his predecessor Gus Bradley did an excellent job with this unit.
Vegas will be exciting and dangerous for every foe to face despite their weaknesses. They’re tied for the seventh-toughest schedule, though, making it improbable they’ll sneak ahead of their peers with less roster depth.
Projection: 9-8
Los Angeles Chargers
The Los Angeles Chargers watched their 2021 season come to an end due to a defense that faltered down the most important stretch of their playoff push. Head coach Brandon Staley’s defense allowed point totals of 34, 41 and 35 in three of their final four games. This spurred a huge spending spree this offseason.
With veteran edge-rusher Khalil Mack and cornerback J.C. Jackson entering the fold, the Chargers have a more balanced distribution of talent on their defense than last season. Staley won’t need to solely rely on superstars Joey Bosa or Derwin James to create turnovers or big plays. The upside of this unit is now as good as any team in the league.
Quarterback Justin Herbert will be under the microscope as he enters his third season. One of the most physically gifted passers in the league, Herbert must maximize a surrounding cast that is headlined with impressive athletes. The trio of running back Austin Ekeler and receivers Keenan Allen and Mike Williams returns as one of the most productive in the NFL.
The other AFC West teams will push the Chargers, but we’re predicting this is the year the Bolts emerge as the kings of the toughest division in football. They have the right mixture of ascending youth and veterans in prime years for it all to come together.
Projection: 11-6
Los Angeles Rams
The defending Super Bowl champs had an expensive offseason but they did what it took to retain as much of their core as they could. Re-signing quarterback Matthew Stafford and defensive tackle Aaron Donald cost the Rams $255 million in extension dollars. Head coach Sean McVay landed a new contract for an undisclosed amount per-year after Amazon planned to meet with him about an analyst role.
This was simply the cost for winning for the Rams. Every Super Bowl winner goes through this type of spending spree after they earn a ring. The only negative for the Rams is they watched star pass-rusher Von Miller defect to the Bills on a massive six-year contract.
Instead of trying to fill Miller’s shoes with an expensive replacement, the Rams opted to bolster the middle of their defense with Bobby Wagner. The former Seahawks star will be a huge upgrade thanks to his versatility and high IQ. But there’s no question the Rams’ pass-rush will suffer from the trade-off.
The Rams’ offense should also benefit from the addition of receiver Allen Robinson. For as well as Robert Woods and Odell Beckham played, each were coming off major injuries that cast doubt on their ability to reach their peak again. Robinson struggled in 2021 but should flourish with Stafford thanks to a skill set that allows him to dominate on jump ball opportunities.
The Rams have the hardest schedule in the league and the NFC West is loaded. Expect the Rams to win the division and remain a top NFC contender, but their regular season record will not be among the best in the conference.
Projection: 11-6
Miami Dolphins
As if predicting win-loss records for teams bringing back the exact same roster wasn’t hard enough, trying to consider all of the new faces on a team like the Miami Dolphins is a fascinatnig exercise. Miami not only fired defensive-minded head coach Brian Flores for offensive guru Mike McDaniel, but also splurged heavily on playmakers for him.
The Dolphins will look quite different schematically and personnel-wise on offense. That should be a major positive after Miami’s offense limped to the 22nd-ranked scoring unit in 2021. Adding star receiver Tyreek Hill and left tackle Terron Armstead headlined a strong free agency that bolstered two critical positions of need.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa certainly has the playmaking he needs around him to succeed with Hill, Jaylen Waddle and Cedrick Wilson Jr. at receiver. Tight end Mike Gesicki was retained on the franchise tag and Miami also overhauled the running back room. Expect the trifecta of Chase Edmonds, Sony Michel and Raheem Mostert to be productive in McDaniel’s scheme if they can stay healthy.
The offensive line is still the major question mark on the roster even with Armstead and Connor Williams added. If Tagovailoa has time to throw, Miami will be very good. If he doesn’t, the Dolphins will again rely on a very good defense for close games.
Miami’s defense is well set as defensive coordinator Josh Boyer is back in the same role. Retaining edge-rusher Emmanuel Ogbah was huge for the unit. We should also see Year 2 progression from Jaelan Phillips and Jevon Holland as emerging stars.
We’re optimistic Miami’s changes were for the better. Considering their upgrades and their 21st-ranked schedule, there’s a pathway for Miami to be the surprise playoff team of 2022. They can sneak into the final wildcard spot if they hit 10 wins.
Projection: 10-7
Minnesota Vikings
Sometimes the best offseasons are ones that don’t feature drastic measures to overhaul a quality roster. The Minnesota Vikings are hoping their approach of bringing back their veteran-laden roster will pay off under new head coach Kevin O’Connell. The alternative was to trade off veterans and rebuild around recent draft picks.
Holding off on a rebuild was the right decision for this Vikings roster. O’Connell has a strong offensive core to work with thanks to superstar talents in Dalvin Cook and Justin Jefferson. Quarterback Kirk Cousins has everything around him needed to thrive in an offense that O’Connell hopes will be “more multiple” this season.
The Vikings have to be more dynamic than their run-heavy approach over the last few seasons. Cousins’ efficiency went up when he was asked to do less but the Vikings’ ceiling was more limited. O’Connell must find the right balance.
The front seven of the Vikings’ defense remains a strong point of the team as well. Adding pass-rusher Za’Darius Smith and linebacker Jordan Hicks will solidify a group that finished 24th in points allowed and 30th in yards allowed. Minnesota would also benefit greatly from a full season from star pass-rusher Danielle Hunter.
The Vikings have a favorable schedule that will allow them to regroup after playing their toughest foes. This is a now-or-never moment for this core of Vikings’ playmakers, so we’ll predict they respond with a playoff berth.
Projection: 10-7
New England Patriots
Despite starting the 2021 season with a 1-3 record, the New England Patriots quickly recovered as they finished 10-7 with a postseason appearance. The Patriots were scrappy and well-coached as expected but few expected them to land sixth in points scored and second in points allowed. They made the most of a good roster that lacked high-end playmakers at most positions.
Not much changed positively this offseason. Star cornerback J.C. Jackson left in free agency but the Patriots relied on the draft to fill his role. Head coach Bill Belichick will enter this season without a clear star at corner.
Quarterback Mac Jones will be challenged to progress after losing offensive coordinator Josh McDaniels to the Raiders’ head coaching job. New England is has terrific depth at receiver and running back but their starpower is lacking. Incoming wide receivers DeVante Parker and Tyquan Thornton will be relied upon to create big plays.
Betting against the Patriots is difficult because Belichick will get the most out of his roster. But this team doesn’t have the difference-making talents that Buffalo and Miami has. New England will drop in the AFC East despite being a difficult team to deal with because they’re so well-coached.
Projection: 8-9
New Orleans Saints
There may not be a bigger x-factor in the NFL than quarterback Jameis Winston is in 2022. The New Orleans Saints dipped their toes into the Deshaun Watson trade market before re-signing the veteran passer. Winston is recovering from a torn ACL but played extremely well in the seven games he started in 2021.
The Saints beefed up their offense around Winston in order to get the most out of their unit upon his return. First-round receiver Chris Olave and left tackle Trevor Penning figure to be impact starters on Day 1. New Orleans is also optimistic star receiver Michael Thomas will be cleared to play soon as he returns from ankle surgery.
It’s critical for Winston and Thomas to be healthy early on since Alvin Kamara is expected to be suspended for at least six weeks. If Winston can continue to avoid turnovers at a career-low rate when he’s asked to throw more than 23 times a game, the Saints might be a sleeping powerhouse in the NFC.
New head coach Dennis Allen will need to produce another elite defense. Allen’s defensive unit finished fourth in points and seventh in yards allowed, notably being dominant at stopping the run. This is the identity of the Saints and must continue to be their backbone.
Their journey won’t be easy thanks to the seventh-toughest strength of schedule but they know their identity and have a ton of talent all over the roster. The Saints will be back in the playoffs in 2022.
Projection: 10-6
New York Giants
There would normally be more optimism surrounding a team that had the offseason the New York Giants enjoyed. The Giants hired head coach Brian Daboll after he not only developed star quarterback Josh Allen in Buffalo but also built a creative system that maximized a deep array of playmakers around him. New York doesn’t have their version of Allen yet but they do have a loaded receiver room.
Daboll and new general manager Joe Schoen did well to rebuild this offensive line by adding first-round tackle Evan Neal and veteran interior blockers Mark Glowinski and Jon Feliciano. Giving Daniel Jones every opportunity to grow as a passer is key. Keeping him healthy and getting close to a full season from his playmakers is a large part of that.
Injuries have been a difficult battle for the Giants’ offense.
Since 2019, Saquon Barkley has missed 21 games, Sterling Shepard has been sidelined for 20 and Kenny Golladay sat out 14 dating back to his time with the Detroit Lions. Kadarius Toney didn’t play in seven games last year. Even Jones missed six games in 2021.
The Giants defense should continue to be a competitive unit under former Baltimore Ravens coordinator Wink Martindale. Their front seven is impressive thanks to Leonard Williams, Dexter Lawrence, Kayvon Thibodeaux and Azeez Ojulari highlighting their young core. Martindale will need to get creative to cover for an inexperienced group of corners after the release of James Bradberry, though.
Like the rest of the NFC East, the Giants have one of the most favorable schedules in the NFL. If they stay healthy, this will be a problematic team that fights hard and will pull upsets thanks to their emerging talent. They just don’t have the consistency or depth to put together a winning season yet.
Projection: 7-10
New York Jets
It’s hard to argue with the job New York Jets general manager Joe Douglas has done this offseason. The Jets landed an incredible haul in the 2022 NFL draft and solidified several other positions in free agency. Every move was made with the goal of solidifying the surrounding cast around quarterback Zach Wilson and creating a high-end defense.
The Jets were able to land arguably the draft’s top cornerback (Ahmad Gardner), wide receiver (Garrett Wilson) and running back (Breece Hall). They also traded up into the first round for edge-rusher Jermaine Johnson II, who broke out with 17.5 tackles for loss and 11.5 sacks at Florida State last year. While expectations for rookies should be reasonable, this is an immense injection of talent.
Free agency brought Pro Bowl guard Laken Tomlinson, safety Jordan Whitehead, and tight ends C.J. Uzomah and Tyler Conklin. New York now has more versatility at each position than they did entering the offseason. Their floor is much higher since there’s more proven talent.
The most critical single factor in New York’s 2022 outlook is Wilson. The second-year passer started to show signs of progress as the season came to a close but he must capitalize on his momentum. He can’t be the same quarterback who completed only 55.6% of his passes for nine touchdowns and 11 interceptions.
The Jets still have a young roster even if Wilson buds into a star. The AFC East is highly competitive and the Jets will suffer record-wise. But their eyes should continue to be on 2023 and beyond when more of their core is into their prime years.
Projection: 6-11
Philadelphia Eagles
What’s not to like about the Philadelphia Eagles in 2022?
The Eagles finished last season with wins in six of their last eight regular season games and snuck into the playoffs. Then, they added a significant number of impact talents in the offseason. This is a team that knows their identity and will accentuate their strengths starting Week 1.
That’s a big advantage for head coach Nick Sirianni compared to last year. He hadn’t found the right offensive balance until Week 8 in his first season. The Eagles quickly became a different team when they ran the ball more consistently.
Factor in the impact of star receiver A.J. Brown on the passing game and the continued development of Jalen Hurts and the Eagles have a high ceiling. Brown, DeVonta Smith and Dallas Goedert provide Hurts with an explosive set of playmakers who are also sure-handed and reliable. Opposing defenses will have their hands full against this offense.
The Eagles’ defense is even more special than their offense. Expect a big improvement from a unit that now has edge-rusher Haason Reddick, linebacker Nakobe Dean, defensive tackle Jordan Davis and cornerback James Bradberry. There’s not a weakness on this unit.
The Eagles will win the NFC East and be a major force in the playoffs. If Hurts takes a major leap, they could win the conference outright and challenge for a Super Bowl.
Projection: 11-6
Pittsburgh Steelers
After 15 years of avoiding a losing season, this will be the year when the Pittsburgh Steelers will finish with a record below .500 under head coach Mike Tomlin. The Steelers are transitioning from Ben Roethlisberger to the combination of Mitch Trubisky and Kenny Pickett, giving them clearly the fourth-best quarterback room in the AFC North. It’s hard to compete with Super Bowl contenders with such uncertainty at the position.
Nevertheless, Pittsburgh will be competitive in the meantime. 2022 Defensive Player of the Year T.J. Watt and All-Pro safety Minkah Fitzpatrick will ensure the defense doesn’t fall off too far even with uncertainty at cornerback. Losing stalwart Stephon Tuitt to retirement stings but the Steelers were already without him last season due to injury.
The offensive playmaking is young and impressive if their eventual starting quarterback can get them the ball. Receivers Diontae Johnson, Chase Claypool, George Pickens and Calvin Austin represent a skilled set of athletes who can cause havoc on a defense. Tight end Pat Freiermuth and running back Najee Harris are also above-average starters at their positions.
It’s hard to trust Trubisky or Pickett in crunch time, though. Overlooking the lack of proven talent at cornerback would also be a mistake since so many teams are pass-heavy.
The Steelers have a way of figuring things out better than most but a step backward is the most logical outcome for this season.
Projection: 6-11
San Francisco 49ers
Any transition from a proven veteran quarterback to an inexperienced young signal-caller can be a rough one. The San Francisco 49ers appear ready to embrace the Trey Lance-era after seeing their Super Bowl hopes dashed once again last year. Incumbent starter Jimmy Garoppolo simply couldn’t push the offense over the hump when they needed him the most, and he’s been on the trade block since the end of last season.
Regardless of whether Garoppolo is traded or on the bench as an insurance policy for Lance, the 49ers’ offense will be significantly different in 2022. Head coach Kyle Shanahan can utlize Lance’s immense rushing ability and strong deep passing potential to build a more dynamic scheme. Lance is an incredible athlete but also a raw passer so it’ll take time for consistency to come.
After a trade request earlier in the offense, there seems to be momentum towards star receiver Deebo Samuel returning to the Bay Area. Samuel’s trainer claimed “he’s about to get paid” earlier this week. A long-term deal would ensure the dynamic talent remains a foundational piece in Shanahan’s offense moving forward.
Even as Lance is eased into his role, the 49ers’ defense should remain the identity of the team. The ninth-ranked scoring defense allowed the third-fewest yards of any team last year. They got even better this offseason after adding cornerback Charvarius Ward in free agency.
The NFC West is a difficult one to navigate because of the competition but this staff and defense have earned the benefit of the doubt. We can expect to see the 49ers right back in the playoffs this season.
Projection: 10-7
Seattle Seahawks
The Seattle Seahawks may have had a brief window to avoid a full reset this offseason had they acquired a veteran quarterback like Baker Mayfield or Carson Wentz, but their intentions for 2022 became clear after trading Russell Wilson to the Denver Broncos and cutting linebacker Bobby Wagner. The Seahawks are prepared to lose with the NFL’s worst quarterback room.
It’s hard to blame the Seahawks. Giving fourth-year quarterback Drew Lock the chance to prove himself is a low-risk move. The worst case is Seattle lands a top-five pick and has the opportunity to draft a desirable quarterback prospect.
Instead of stripping the roster to its studs, they still have talented receivers in DK Metcalf and Tyler Lockett to build the offense around. 2022 second-round pick Ken Walker III could prove to be a valuable foundational piece for the next franchise quarterback.
The Seahawks’ defense has a mixed bag of talent. Jamal Adams, Quandre Diggs and Jordyn Brooks are set in place as bonafide starters. The rest of the unit has stopgaps must find long-term starters.
This season is about finding impactful building blocks from their recent draft picks. The hope is for rookie pass-rusher Boye Mafe and cornerbacks Coby Bryant and Tariq Woolen to become dependable presences for years to come.
Considering their weak roster, issues at quarterback and having the 11th-most difficult schedule, the Seahawks are destined to finish with a top-five pick in the 2023 NFL Draft.
Projection: 4-13
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
As soon as quarterback Tom Brady announced his decision to postpone retirement for at least another year, the Tampa Bay Buccaneers Super Bowl window flew open once again.
New head coach Todd Bowles stepped into the chair that Bruce Arians vacated as he entered a front-office role, providing a level of continuity for the franchise. Bowles was able to retain offensive coordinator Byron Leftwich for Brady’s possible swan song.
The Buccaneers are transitioning at several key positions. Tight end Rob Gronkowski is retired for now, leaving a sizable downgrade to Cameron Brate and rookie Cade Otton. The franchise is hopeful for a Week 1 return for Chris Godwin but it would not be surprising if he is eased back into action.
Leftwich and Brady have enough firepower to still produce a quality offense with Mike Evans, Russell Gage, Brate, Leonard Fournette and Rachaad White.
The Buccaneers’ defense will be relied upon to be an elite unit as they were in 2021. Veterans Ndamukong Suh and Jason Pierre-Paul are still free agents, so we may see rookie Logan Hall and second-year pass-rusher Joe Tryon-Shoyinka step into large roles early.
There’s a ton of talent on both of the ball for Tampa Bay but they’ll need to be sharp since they have the fourth most difficult schedule. There’s no way Brady will miss the playoffs with this collection of talent, though.
Projection: 12-5
Tennessee Titans
All of the Tennessee Titans’ hopes to return to the playoffs in 2022 rely on their backfield. If star running back Derrick Henry doesn’t stay healthy or if quarterback Ryan Tannehill doesn’t return to his 2020 level, the Titans have no chance at making waves in the postseason.
The Titans may have no shot anyways after this past offseason.
Trading star receiver A.J. Brown to the Philadelphia Eagles for two draft picks hurt this team’s offensive upside considerably. Rookie wideout Treylon Burks is a great replacement for Brown’s role but is a more limited athlete when it comes to route-running. They also acquired receiver Robert Woods but he’s coming off a torn ACL.
Offensive coordinator Todd Downing will need to maximize his new playmakers and get Tannehill back on track. He’ll also need to develop two new starters along the offensive line after both Rodger Saffold and David Quessenberry walked in free agency.
The Titans’ defense faces similar depth question marks in their back seven. Bud Dupree must prove to be the impactful pass-rusher he was pre-ACL injury. Cornerback Caleb Farley is another wildcard considering his injury history and the Titans lack a reliable replacement if he’s not ready to be a star talent.
No one will want to face Tennessee with Henry on the field but they’re getting less scary as they continue to strip down their roster around him over time. They’re a wildcard contender at-best this season.
Projection: 9-8
Washington Commanders
There’s a two-fold dynamic that Washington will experience with new quarterback Carson Wentz. He’s undoubtedly the best talent they’ve had at quarterback after three years of Case Keenum, Alex Smith and Taylor Heinicke. However, he’s also an average presence, meaning he’s vulnerable to the dreadful stretches like the one that came at the of 2021 and caused the Colts to miss the playoffs.
At his best, Wentz can be moderately efficient and create big plays downfield with his ability to extend outside of structure. That bodes well for a talented receiving crew of Terry McLaurin, Jahan Dotson, Logan Thomas and Curtis Samuel. Running backs Antonio Gibson and J.D. McKissic should also benefit from seeing fewer defenders in the box with Wentz under center.
The Commanders will have a better offense this season if everyone stays healthy. Wentz, Thomas and Samuel have dealt with significant injuries throughout their careers. It’s a respectable unit that will go hot and cold because of Wentz’s lack of consistency in structure.
More focus will be on the Commanders’ defense. Led by a dynamic front four featuring Chase Young and Daron Payne, this unit started to play much better over the second half of the 2021 season. They simply cannot afford to finish 25th in points allowed like they did last year.
Projection: 8-9
All schedule information is courtesy of FantasyData.com.
