By Scott Kacsmar
The Jacksonville Jaguars have quickly gone from an afterthought with a 2-6 record to the team favored to win back-to-back AFC South titles while having the best coach and quarterback duo in the division.
The success came so quickly and in such dramatic fashion that you almost want to immediately predict regression in 2023. However, the Colts and Texans are rebuilding with rookie coaches and quarterbacks, and the Titans seem to have plateaued. Meanwhile, Trevor Lawrence is getting some MVP buzz and has a new weapon.
This is Jacksonville’s division to lose this year. The sportsbooks have given the team an over/under of 9.5 wins and some of the highest odds in the league to win a division title in 2023.
We look at 2022’s reversal of fortune, the key offseason changes, how Calvin Ridley might affect the offense, and the best Jaguars bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Comeback Cats
Expectations were not very high for Jacksonville going into 2022, but anything would have been better than the mess coach Urban Meyer left behind in 2021. Adding a Super Bowl-winning coach in Doug Pederson to a team with a No. 1 overall pick at quarterback in Trevor Lawrence, who already took his rookie lumps, sounded like a great formula for doubling the win total.
Maybe the Jaguars were even poised for greater things after shutting out the Colts 24-0 and destroying the Chargers 38-10 in Los Angeles. Sure, it helped that Jusitn Herbert played through a rib injury, but the offense dropped a season-high 38 points and also had 25 first downs in that game.
A week later, the Jaguars took a 14-0 lead in Philadelphia after a couple of deflected passes went their way early. The team was looking strong, but that was the peak of the first half of the season. The Jaguars wound up turning it over 5 times with Lawrence losing 4 fumbles in the rain that day, and the Eagles came back to beat their former coach 29-21.
Losing to Philadelphia was one thing but losing 13-6 to the Texans was a low point. The losses continued rolling in and they were happening in typical Jacksonville fashion:
- Couldn’t come back in the fourth quarter to beat the Colts in a 34-27 shootout.
- Couldn’t finish the game-winning drive against the Giants, coming up 1 yard short as time expired in a 23-17 loss.
- Couldn’t hold the lead against Denver before Lawrence threw a game-ending interception in a 21-17 loss.
For years, you just had to score at least 21 points to beat the Jaguars. Lawrence started his career 1-20 when the Jaguars allowed more than 11 points.
So, when the 2-6 Jaguars were down 17-0 to the Raiders, it sure looked like the team was on its way to another loss. However, the 2022 Raiders were making history their own way after already blowing leads of 20-0 and 17-0 to the Cardinals and Chiefs in this young season. By blowing a third lead of 17-plus points, they tied a single-season NFL record.
The defense for Jacksonville came through this time too, not allowing the Raiders a point after halftime and keeping them under that 21-point threshold. The Jaguars actually took the lead on the first play of the fourth quarter with a Travis Etienne touchdown run, and later added a field goal in the 27-20 win. This was Etienne’s third-straight 100-yard rushing game as he helped the offense after the team moved James Robinson and let their 2021 first-round pick take on a bigger role.
The Jaguars had one comeback win of more than 15 points in their first 455 games in franchise history. This was their second, but it would not be the last of 2022.
The Vegas win was short-lived success as the Jaguars lost 27-17 to the Chiefs the next week despite being up 3-0 in turnovers that day. After a bye week, the 3-7 Jaguars hosted Baltimore, a team that managed to hold a double-digit lead in each of their first 10 games of the season (elite company).
The Ravens never led by 10 points that day, but they were up 19-10 in the fourth quarter. Jacksonville had not made a comeback win when trailing by at least 9 points in the fourth quarter since 2019 against the Raiders.
But like the Raiders, the 2022 Ravens were really bad at holding big leads. The Jaguars scored a touchdown, then used a quick Gus Edwards fumble on defense to set up a go-ahead field goal. Lamar Jackson answered with a touchdown drive for Baltimore, putting Lawrence in a familiar situation with the ball and a 27-20 deficit.
Lawrence delivered the best drive of his career to that point, leading a 75-yard touchdown drive with 14 seconds left. Instead of going for the extra point and overtime, Pederson had the team go for the lead. Lawrence completed the 2-point conversion pass to Zay Jones and Jacksonville won 28-27.
Not only was it the best comeback win in years for the Jaguars, but it finally ended the long streak of losing high-scoring games. The Jaguars had lost 41 games in a row when allowing at least 21 points. Starting with the Baltimore game, the Jaguars finished the season 4-2 when allowing 21-plus points. From 0-41 to 4-2 is quite the change.
But there were still hiccups, like a 40-14 loss in Detroit where it looked like Lawrene suffered a serious leg injury. But he finished the game. He played great in a key win over the Titans, who were 7-3 and had a full 4-game lead on Jacksonville for the division. But the Titans kept losing as the season went on while the Jaguars got on a winning streak for a change.
The Jaguars pulled off another 17-point comeback against Dallas this time. Dak Prescott had a pass deflected and intercepted for a game-winning touchdown in overtime in a 40-34 win. But in the final games of the season, the defense took over against lesser competition, holding the Jets, Texans, and Titans to a combined 22 points.
It was a Saturday night game at home in Week 18 where the AFC South was decided. The Titans had to start Josh Dobbs at quarterback with Ryan Tannehill injured. The Jaguars caught that break, but Lawrence and the offense was not playing well. The running game was held to a season-low 19 yards.
But with around 3:00 left and the Titans leading 16-13, Dobbs was sacked, fumbled, and the ball was returned for a go-ahead touchdown. The defense held again, and the Jaguars were division champs.
Between the Baltimore win and the sweep over Tennessee, the Jaguars are on a 3-0 streak in games where they do not rush for more than 65 yards. The Jaguars were 3-42 in such low-rushing games from 2002-22.
Of course, if Tennessee had simply won another game down the stretch instead of ending with a 7-game losing streak, then the Jaguars are not division champs. But they hung in there and got the sweep to win the AFC South.
In the wild card round, they had a favorable matchup with the Chargers, the team they beat 38-10 in Week 3. However, this time Lawrence threw four interceptions before halftime and the Jaguars were down 27-0 before getting on the board.
Fortunately, the Chargers are capable of blowing any lead in any fashion. The Jaguars continued to chip away, and Lawrence soon enough threw four touchdowns and led a game-winning drive for a field goal with no time left in the 31-30 comeback win. It is the third-largest comeback win in playoff history.
In the divisional round in Kansas City, the Jaguars were considerable underdogs, but they made Patrick Mahomes bring his A-game on an opening touchdown drive. Mahomes’ mobility looked fantastic, but then on the next drive, he suffered a high-ankle sprain. Just when it looked like the Jaguars might catch another huge break, they forgot to play defense on a 98-yard touchdown drive led by backup veteran Chad Henne.
Mahomes came back for the second half and did enough to gut out another touchdown throw, and the Jaguars had a couple of costly turnovers in the fourth quarter. They lost 27-20, but the game only felt that close because of the Mahomes injury.
Still, it was an excellent job of rebounding and developing for the Jaguars, who finally got their first taste of the playoffs since the 2017 season.
But can the Jaguars make the playoffs in back-to-back years? They have not done so since a 4-year run in 1996-99. In fact, the Jaguars have not had a winning record in consecutive seasons since 2004-05.
Offseason Review
The Jaguars join the Bengals, Seahawks, Steelers, Bears, Lions, and Giants as the only seven teams in the NFL this year to return the same head coach, offensive coordinator, defensive coordinator, and starting quarterback.
Jacksonville’s biggest move for this season already happened last November when the team traded for wide receiver Calvin Ridley from Atlanta. We look at his impact in the next section.
Otherwise, the Jaguars did not make many notable additions to the roster this year. All the projected starters on defense were already on the team last year. The big name to watch there is Travon Walker, the No. 1 overall pick in the 2022 draft, to see if he makes a big leap forward in his second season.
In the draft, the Jaguars used their first-round pick on new right tackle Anton Harrison from Oklahoma. The team also used a third-round pick to get running back Tank Bigsby to back up Etienne.
But the Jaguars tried loading up on late-round picks with a pair of picks in the fifth round, then three picks each in Round 6 and Round 7. Not all these picks are guaranteed to make the final roster this year.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Calvin Ridley’s Fit and Impact
We spent more time than usual doing the season recap for the Jaguars in part because it was an interesting season that broke a lot of bad trends for the team. But it also is due to the team having one of the least interesting off-seasons among the 32 teams.
By and large, the Jaguars are putting their 2023 fortune on their young players getting better and adding Calvin Ridley, who served a full-season suspension for gambling on games while he was with the Falcons. Ridley also played just 5 games in 2021 for health reasons, so he has not played in an NFL game since October 24, 2021.
This is a long time to be away, and Ridley will turn 29 in December. But when he last played a full season in 2020, he had 90 catches for 1,374 yards and 9 touchdowns with his arrow pointing up.
This makes for an interesting addition to a Jacksonville receiving corps that really surprised people last year. We laughed at the idea that Lawrence was going to flourish because the team added Christian Kirk, Zay Jones, and tight end Evan Engram.
But the Jaguars made us eat crow, because those players were effective, they all went over 750 yards, and Lawrence did in fact improve with them. He especially liked Kirk, who had 1,108 yards and 8 touchdowns to lead the team.
Kirk’s chemistry with Lawrence is why he may even remain the No. 1 in Jacksonville this year. Ridley will start, but we will continue seeing Kirk in the slot where he can get more advantageous matchups. According to Pro Football Focus, Kirk’s 823 yards from the slot ranked second only to Dallas’ CeeDee Lamb (867).
Kirk and Ridley have a chance to make each other better in this offense. Kirk’s 1.74 slot yards per route run only ranks No. 8 out of the 10 receivers with the most slot yards last year according to PFF, so there is room for more efficiency here.
But we will see how Lawrence approaches this new look. The fact that he did as well with his new trio last year bodes well for the Ridley move, but do not expect some Terrell Owens (2004 Eagles) or Randy Moss (2007 Patriots) type of impact here. He is not that kind of receiver.
Best Bets for the 2023 Jaguars
There is understandable excitement for the Jaguars to do even better this year after already winning a division title and playoff game in Pederson’s first season. When he was in Philadelphia, he won the Super Bowl in his second season (2017).
It does not feel like the Jaguars are ready for that type of leap, especially when adding Ridley and a rookie right tackle are their biggest roster moves. It’s not like the team loaded up to go for it all this year. We also will see them tested greatly on the schedule with games against the Chiefs, Bills, 49ers, Bengals, and Ravens. By playoff time, we will have a good idea of where Jacksonville matches up with the elite teams.
If not for the state of the AFC South, the Jaguars would be a risky pick to make for a big playoff season this year. They needed so much to go right last year after starting 2-6, and even then, they still trailed by 17-plus points in 5 games after Week 9, tied with Seattle for the most in the league. This team had three comebacks of 17-plus points in a 10-game stretch after having one such game in the franchise’s first 455 games. They won two games on a defensive return touchdown, including one deflected pass and one strip-sack of a third-string quarterback.
Even in the triumphant playoff win, it was the Chargers, a team known for choking like that. So, you should be lukewarm about the Jaguars having the type of season where Pederson is Coach of the Year, Lawrence is MVP, or the Jaguars are going to the Super Bowl.
But when it comes to the AFC South, they should win the division and win double-digit games. Going 4-0 against the Texans and Colts is very realistic, and they also host Carolina for another game against a rookie quarterback (Bryce Young).
No head coach has ever won a Super Bowl with multiple teams. Pederson, Sean Payton, and Mike McCarthy are all battling to become the first. If Pederson did pull it off with this team, you could start carving his Hall of Fame bust. Remember, Carson Wentz got him fired in Philadelphia.
But it is nice to have a season where we are considering the Jaguars as a contender instead of an afterthought the NFL always ships to London and schedules to play the Titans on a Thursday night in December when people are out Christmas shopping.
NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars over 9.5 wins (-144 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars to win AFC South (-155 at FanDuel)
