By Scott Kacsmar
The Indianapolis Colts went from division favorites to comic relief during the 2022 season. After one of the rougher moments in franchise history, things may be looking up after the additions of a new head coach (Shane Steichen) and first-round pick at quarterback (Anthony Richardson).
But the record this year may not show as much improvement as one would like. The sportsbooks have the Colts with an over/under of 6.5 wins, and they are no better than third to win the AFC South, the weakest division in the AFC.
Owner Jim Irsay has had a tumultuous summer in trading barbs publicly with star running back Jonathan Taylor, and that drama could still shake things up should the Colts trade the back to another team.
We look at 2022’s tragicomedy of a season, the key offseason changes, how the Taylor drama could hurt Richardson’s development, and the best Colts bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Year’s No. 1 Dramedy
The 2022 Colts saw their season play out like a 5-act tragicomedy with each part progressively funnier and more depressing than the last.
Act I: This Is Fine (Background in Flames)
The meshing of Matt Ryan with coach Frank Reich’s offensive mind seemed destined to lift the Colts to a postseason berth a year after just missing out at 9-8 with Carson Wentz. Ryan still had something in the tank to prove, and Reich was always used to adjusting to a new quarterback every year. Just give Ryan a better running game with Jonathan Taylor and a legitimate top-15 defense, and he should have been able to take this team to the playoffs.
But it took about two weeks for that to flop. The Colts needed a fourth-quarter rally from a 20-3 deficit in Week 1 in Houston just to force overtime before ending with a 20-20 tie after Rodrigo Blankenship missed a 42-yard field goal.
If that wasn’t bad enough, the Colts lost their 8th game in a row on the road against Jacksonville. But this time it was a 24-0 final as Ryan was under siege with 5 sacks. His 45.7% pressure rate was his highest in any game since 2018 (source: Pro Football Reference).
Act II: The Gunslinger Does What He Can
No better proof of how unpredictable the NFL can be than the 0-1-1 Colts went from playing abysmal football to beating the Chiefs 20-17 in Week 3. It was the only time in their last 29 games where the Chiefs were held under 20 points. The Colts also did it without linebacker Shaquille Leonard, who only played in 3 games last season.
Ryan was able to withstand 5 sacks and led a long game-winning touchdown drive with 24 seconds left before the defense picked off Patrick Mahomes to end the game. It was reminiscent of Indy’s 19-13 win over the Chiefs in 2019. The Chiefs will probably continue taking this exchange of an embarrassing, low-scoring loss to the Colts if the season ends in a Super Bowl win.
But Ryan delivering in crunch time became the Colts’ only hope of winning in 2022. He was technically credited with a fourth-quarter comeback and game-winning drive in Denver in Week 5 in one of the most fitting (and embarrassing) games of the entire 2022 season. Nothing epitomizes the disappointment of Ryan and Russell Wilson on their new teams than a 12-9 overtime game with all field goals. Wilson’s late interception in overtime ended it for Denver. At least Ryan didn’t do that.
A week later, Ryan had his best game with 389 yards and two touchdown passes in the fourth quarter to beat Jacksonville 34-27. Even better, he threw 58 passes without taking a sack, his only game in 2022 without a sack.
Incredibly, this rough Indianapolis team was 3-2-1 with a win over the Chiefs, and they would have been 4-2 if the kicker could just make an easy field goal.
But after Ryan struggled with a pick-six in Tennessee in a 19-10 loss, he was benched. The timing seemed off as Ryan was still helping this team win games even if the turnovers were too high and he did not look comfortable behind the bad offensive line.
Act III: Frank Reich Exits Stage Left (Joe Pesci in Goodfellas Style)
The worst part of Ryan’s benching was the Colts only had Sam Ehlinger, a 2021 sixth-round pick, to start in his place. That’s not exactly a player you need to invest in for the future.
The nimbler Ehlinger did a respectable job against the Commanders, but the Colts still lost 17-16 at home after blowing a 9-point lead in the fourth quarter. But a week later in New England, Ehlinger reminded us why 32 teams did not deem him a starter-worthy prospect coming into the NFL. Bill Belichick’s defense embarrassed him in a 26-3 win. Ehlinger took 9 sacks while completing 15-of-29 passes for 103 yards and an interception.
With a 3-5-1 record and coming off that brutal loss, the Colts fired Reich halfway into his fifth season. The normal move would be to promote someone on staff as the interim coach for the rest of the year. Defensive coordinator Gus Bradley has previous coaching experience with Jacksonville, but the Colts went against the grain with one of the most outlandish hirings in NFL history.
Act IV: Well, His Name Wasn’t Jeff SUNDAY
On October 30, retired Colts center and current ESPN analyst Jeff Saturday tweeted, possibly from the comfort of his couch, that the “Raiders look horrible.” Two weeks later, he was coaching the Colts against the Raiders in a real game.
Almost like something out of Ted Lasso, it was a strange move to hire a football coach with no previous experience coaching college or professional football. The move was absolutely panned by NFL media members, including Hall of Fame coach Bill Cowher.
But just as beating the Chiefs came out of nowhere, the Colts found a way to rally for another win over an AFC West team in the Raiders, who loved blowing leads last year. Saturday was smart enough to see going back to Ryan was his only hope, so he made that move and was rewarded with his veteran leading the 47th (and perhaps final) game-winning drive of his career.
For about 15 quarters, this Saturday’s experiment was not going that badly. The Colts almost beat the 8-1 Eagles before blowing another fourth-quarter lead and losing 17-16 after Ryan could not set up a field goal at the end.
Still, it presents one of the funniest stats of the year: Colts were the only team to hold Patrick Mahomes and Jalen Hurts under 20 points in 2022.
The Colts blew another fourth-quarter lead at home to the Steelers, then were hanging tough in Dallas in a 21-19 game going into the fourth quarter. But that was when the Saturday experiment would get out of hand. The Cowboys took advantage of the Colts’ bad habit of turning the ball over, and they outscored them 33-0 in the fourth quarter – something that had not been done in the NFL since 1925.
After a bye, the Colts came back for a Saturday game in Minnesota, and they were able to take a stunning 33-0 lead at halftime. How does a team go from getting outscored 33-0 in a quarter to outscoring a playoff team 33-0 on the road? But it never felt legit as the Colts used some lucky bounces and two return touchdowns to build that lead. Meanwhile, the Vikings were making their own history last year as they tied the NFL record with 8 fourth-quarter comebacks in a season.
But 33-0 would have been a record comeback, replacing the 32-point comeback by the Bills, quarterbacked by Frank Reich, against the Houston Oilers in the 1992 AFC Wild Card game. Almost as if the Ghost of Frank Reich entered the building, the Colts started to collapse. The Colts had a chance to end the game with a quarterback sneak on a 4th-and-1, but Ryan was stopped cold for no gain. The Vikings immediately responded with a game-tying touchdown and 2-point conversion and then won 39-36 in overtime to complete the biggest comeback (or collapse) in NFL history.
On a Saturday afternoon, Saturday just painted his masterpiece, and the coaching fraternity, people like Cowher, probably couldn’t have been happier about this embarrassing loss.
Ryan fell on the sword for the loss and was benched for the rest of the season. Not currently on a team in 2023, his final NFL game could be a blown 33-0 lead to go along with his blown 28-3 lead in a Super Bowl with Atlanta. Unfathomable stuff for a quarterback who was very good for most of his career.
But at 4-9-1, the drama of the season was over.
Act V: Playing Out the String
Since you cannot top-blowing a 33-0 lead, the Colts’ final act in their 2022 tragicomedy was merely a forgettable epilogue. Nick Foles got a couple of starts before the Colts realized he could not move either behind this line, and he took 8 sacks on 50 passes while the Colts were outscored 58-13 against the Chargers and Giants.
Ehlinger started the season finale against Houston, and incredibly the Colts were unable to get a win against a team that could have easily had the No. 1 pick in the draft. But after Houston coach Lovie Smith decided to go for a 2-point conversion to win 32-31, the No. 1 pick ended up going to Chicago instead.
Chicago eventually traded that pick to Carolina, or else Houston may have ended up drafting Bryce Young with the No. 1 pick. Instead, Reich can thank the Colts for helping him to end up in Carolina with Young as his quarterback of the future.
In the end, Reich gets a happy ending while the Colts look at an uncertain future. At least they did not hire Saturday as the full-time coach.
Offseason Review
The Colts needed some big changes after that mess last year. They started with a good move to hire Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen as their new head coach. Steichen worked with Justin Herbert as a rookie in Los Angeles, then he helped Jalen Hurts develop in Philadelphia the last two seasons, including a runner-up finish for the MVP award and Super Bowl.
Obviously, Steichen is not going to have the likes of A.J. Brown, DeVonta Smith, and an elite offensive line at his fingertips this season. It remains to be seen if the Colts will have running back Jonathan Taylor, but we will discuss that in the next section.
Steichen’s history with young quarterbacks is what you want when you have a young quarterback to develop. Tired of immobile veterans on their last legs, the Colts had to make a move with the No. 4 pick. Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud were gone, and some thought Will Levis from Kentucky would be the pick for Indy.
However, the Colts are going with Anthony Richardson from Florida. The scouting report plays a familiar tune of a raw passer with great mobility, but he needs reps and lacks the polish of a Herbert or even Hurts coming out of college. This is going to be a struggle for Steichen in 2023, but the hiring of Steichen and the selection of Richardson are both logical, defendable moves by the Colts for future success. Do not judge them on the rookie results. Even Peyton Manning started out on a 3-13 team.
But we’ll talk about the offense more in the next section. The defense is going to have to be much improved under coordinator Gus Bradley, who retained his job, if this team is going to compete this year for anything.
The Colts will need some of these recent draft picks to step up, whether it is 2021 first-round pick Kwity Paye, safety Rodney Thomas, or even second-round rookie corner JuJu Brents.
The defensive line still has DeForest Buckner, but Yannick Ngakoue is gone after another one-and-done year for him where he led the Colts with 9.5 sacks.
A healthy year from Leonard would help. In 2021, he intercepted 4 passes and forced 8 fumbles (led NFL). The Colts were mediocre at creating takeaways in his absence last year, but getting an offense that cuts down the turnovers (league-high 34) is the first priority in Indy. Too often the Colts were put in poor positions after a turnover last year.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Are the Colts Sabotaging Richardson’s Rookie Year?
In a perfect world, the Colts would help their rookie quarterback with a strong running game led by Jonathan Taylor while still making sure Richardson gets designed runs and scramble opportunities. Steichen can also bring the dominant quarterback sneak upgrade from Philadelphia (the teammate push) to the Colts.
They would also make good use of play-action passing and utilize the size advantages they have with wide receivers Michael Pittman Jr. and Alec Pierce. They would get tight end Jelani Woods more involved as he is no longer a rookie and flashed some skills last year.
In a perfect world, the Colts would be better on defense, giving Richardson more winnable games where he does not need to score 30 points to get the win. The Colts could be a ball-control, run-based offense with a defense that just wants to keep things close. Hell, they already seem to have a better way to deal with Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs than most teams. (Consider that a joke about an amusing 2-game sample).
It would be the antithesis of what the Peyton Manning and Andrew Luck eras were like, but the Colts do not have the passing precision or talent around to be that kind of team anymore. This is what makes sense for them now, and while we may see some of that in 2023, we are not sure if Taylor will be part of the picture.
We’ll spare you the back-and-forth with owner Jim Irsay and Taylor this summer, but let’s just say Taylor is not happy about his contract and the Colts have granted him the right to seek a trade.
The Colts are seeking a first-round pick or equivalent in return for Taylor’s services. Taylor will be an unrestricted free agent in 2024, so he is understandably looking for a big extension that the Colts have not put in front of him yet. Taylor is also coming off an injury-plagued season where he missed 6 games, and he is currently not practicing after having ankle surgery in January.
It is a messy situation that may not have a good outcome for the Colts. It is hard to imagine any team offering that much in a trade for a running back who may not be healthy. The best-case scenario may be if Taylor returns and begrudgingly plays on the final year of his rookie contract and hopes to be financially rewarded in the offseason.
But the prospects of a happy Taylor dominating on a contract extension in Indy this year are slim to none. That is sad news for Richardson because we have solid evidence that mobile quarterbacks help their running games perform even better. Think Michael Vick in Atlanta, Vince Young in Tennessee, Cam Newton in Carolina, and Lamar Jackson in Baltimore. Even Justin Fields in Chicago last year is a good example, but the Bears could not throw the ball well.
The Colts could be an interesting offense in Year 1 with Richardson and Taylor both being threats in the offense, but it may end up being Zack Moss or the other backups who ultimately get the carries. This is a fluid situation.
The fact is we have not seen much of Richardson in the preseason either despite being named the starter for Week 1. He did not play in the first game, and he threw 12 passes in the second game against Buffalo.
Fellow rookies Bryce Young and C.J. Stroud have not played much more in the preseason for their teams, but they also come in with far more college experience than Richardson, who threw 393 passes at Florida where he completed 54.7% of his passes. Stroud was a 69.3% passer on 830 passes at Ohio State. Young was a 65.8% passer on 949 attempts.
Richardson could very well have a Jackson or Fields type of impact as a runner himself in this league if the Colts allow him that much free reign. But as a passer, it is hard to imagine he won’t be a rough watch in 2023. How much handing off he does, and who he does it to, remains to be seen, but Steichen has to find ways to make things easier on Richardson.
Best Bets for the 2023 Colts
Playing in the AFC South should help in division games, but we would have said that last year when the Colts were 0-1-1 against the Texans, who were 2-13 otherwise.
Moving up from 4-12-1 sounds reasonable when you get a new coach (who actually has NFL coaching experience) and your best defender back. But when you look at the Colts’ roster, you do not see a lot of elite talents. One of them is Taylor, but that playing status is up in the air.
The Colts should win enough to stay out of the No. 1 pick race, but it is hard to see this team winning over 6.5 games in Year 1 of the new regime. There are going to be growing pains, and after last year, nothing is certain to work out in this league. Ryan seemed like a good fit for Reich, and neither made it to the end of the season.
At least we can feel confident that Steichen and Richardson will be back in 2024. But this team is going to need time.
NFL Pick: Indianapolis Colts Under 6.5 wins (-104 at FanDuel)
