By Scott Kacsmar
The Houston Texans have spent two seasons in the NFL’s abyss after the fallout of the Deshaun Watson situation. After going through two years of one-and-done coaches and 26 starts by Davis Mills at quarterback, the Texans should finally start building an identity and put a watchable team on the field.
An exciting coaching hire and an aggressive draft class will make or break the next few years for the franchise, but things are not expected to click overnight in 2023. The sportsbooks are only giving Houston an over/under of 6.5 wins and the worst odds (+1000 at FanDuel) to win the AFC South, the weakest division in the AFC.
Basically, the Texans are projected to finish last in the conference and will battle it out with Arizona for the No. 1 pick, which is an interesting subplot for this season as Arizona owns Houston’s first-round pick after the trade to get Will Anderson. The teams will meet in Houston in Week 11 too.
We look back at 2022’s competitive but lousy season, the key offseason changes, the early judgment on draft night, and the best Texans bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Lovie’s Last Laugh
If the Texans would just be honest for a minute, they would probably admit they did not have much of a plan after Deshaun Watson decided he did not want to be the quarterback anymore. That was a story before the 2021 season and before his sexual misconduct allegations came out.
With the quarterback position in limbo, Houston has not been an attractive landing spot for coaches, especially with a roster on the decline as J.J. Watt and DeAndre Hopkins have left in recent years.
Giving 66-year-old coach David Culley the top job in 2021 always felt like a stop-gap solution in a year the team was giving up on. Promoting 64-year-old defensive coordinator Lovie Smith to head coach in 2022 felt like a team that still did not care about competing just yet.
If not for the Colts being abysmal last year, the Texans could have easily been looking at a 2-15 season, an easy path to the No. 1 pick and the quarterback of their choice in the draft. But the Texans still almost earned that pick on their own after starting 1-12-1.
However, no one will be accusing the Texans of tanking because this team did play hard throughout the season. They played the Eagles in Week 9 when Philly was rolling and undefeated, and they kept that game close and only trailed by 12 points in the fourth quarter.
In December, Houston was a 17-point underdog in Dallas and almost won that game before getting stopped on a fourth-and-goal play, and then watching Dak Prescott lead a game-winning drive. A week later, the Texans were 14.5-point underdogs against the Chiefs, but they gave the eventual Super Bowl champs all they could handle in a game decided in overtime after a badly lost fumble by a Houston offense that had 28 turnovers (30th in the NFL).
With division games to close the season, the Texans came back for a win against Tennessee, which was playing without Ryan Tannehill. In Week 18, the Texans would have secured the No. 1 pick with a loss to the Colts, but they played to win in what felt like Lovie’s last game as head coach. He decided to have the team go for a late 2-point conversion to take the lead, and it paid off as the Texans won 32-31, giving up the No. 1 seed and finishing 3-13-1. The No. 1 pick went to the Bears, who had a 3-14 record.
Consider it Lovie’s last gift to Chicago, the first team to make him an NFL coach. It is hard to say if the Texans will regret this Week 18 win because it did take away their chance to draft Bryce Young if they wanted him at No. 1. The comparison of Young and C.J. Stroud will be brought up many times in the coming years, but we will see if Houston missed out on the real deal or if they can be perfectly happy with the player they took with the No. 2 pick.
Offseason Review
We are covering Houston’s aggressive draft in the next section, but the first move of note is the hiring of DeMeco Ryans as the latest head coach. Finally, the Texans hired someone younger than 64 years old to lead them.
Ryans is only 39, and Houston fans know him well as he was the team’s Pro Bowl linebacker in 2006-11. Does that make him better suited for the job? Maybe not, but it does at least suggest a personal link to the franchise that will motivate him to do well.
There is definitely a stigma against hiring defensive coaches, especially first-time coaches, in the NFL today. Everyone wants the hot-shot offensive coach who learned from Kyle Shanahan, Andy Reid, or Sean McVay. Even if you worked for Bill Belichick, you are deadweight now as his coaching tree has been a bust.
When you look at the recent list of first-time NFL head coaches who were defensive coordinators or defensive coaches, it is not an impressive group:
- DeMeco Ryans (2023 Texans)
- Jonathan Gannon (2023 Cardinals)
- Matt Eberflus (2022 Bears)
- Brandon Staley (2021 Chargers)
- Robert Saleh (2021 Jets)
- Brian Flores (2019 Dolphins)*
- Vic Fangio (2019 Broncos)*
- Mike Vrabel (2018 Titans)
- Matt Patricia (2018 Lions)*
- Steve Wilks (2018 Cardinals)*
- Vance Joseph (2017 Broncos)*
- Sean McDermott (2017 Bills)
- Todd Bowles (2015 Jets)
- Jim Tomsula (2015 49ers)*
- Dan Quinn (2015 Falcons)
The six coaches marked with an asterisk were fired within three seasons.
So far, the most successful names on this list of 15 coaches are the only ones to win a playoff game: Sean McDermott, Dan Quinn, and Mike Vrabel. Quinn is best known for blowing a 25-point lead in the Super Bowl with the 2016 Falcons.
But there are reasons to like this hiring of Ryans. First, they are giving him a potential franchise quarterback in the draft in C.J. Stroud, so it is not like Ryans will be trying to win with an Andy Dalton or Ryan Fitzpatrick type of journeyman in Houston.
Second, Ryans did learn from Kyle Shanahan as he was in San Francisco with him since 2017. He has done everything from quality control to coaching up the linebackers to being the defensive coordinator of the top-ranked defense over the last two seasons. He is not just a one-year wonder, which is closer to being accurate for Robert Saleh, who was the 49ers’ coordinator who got the job with the Jets in 2021.
Thanks to his San Francisco connections, Ryans was able to bring Bobby Slowik with him to be his offensive coordinator in Houston. Slowik goes back many years with the Shanahan family, including a stint in Washington in 2011-13. He has been a passing game specialist/coordinator for the last two years, so he has helped multiple quarterbacks succeed there, including rookie Brock Purdy at the end of last year.
Slowik may not be Shanahan, but he knows how that offense operates, and he should bring some of the concepts with him to Houston as this team looks to finally establish some identity in the post-Watson era.
The cupboard is not full, of course. The Texans have a decent backfield with Devin Singletary (Bills) joining Dameon Pierce, who had a nice rookie year. Dalton Schultz comes over from Dallas to give the Texans a notable tight end for what feels like the first time in a long time.
Wide receiver is trickier with a top trio of veteran Robert Woods, 2022 second-round pick John Metchie (making his debut after a leukemia diagnosis last year), and Nico Collins (finished fourth on the team in 2022 with 481 yards). Brandin Cooks has gone to Dallas, so it is not a strong group, but it could be worse.
As for the defense, Ryans is obviously seeing a huge drop in talent as the 49ers may have the most talented defense in the NFL. But the Texans have some pieces to work with here. Corner Derek Stingley is only going into his second season, Denzel Perryman is a veteran linebacker, Ryans will have safety Jimmie Ward from the 49ers, and Sheldon Rankins is a good defensive tackle.
The Texans have way too many holes to fix in one offseason, but this was a good start.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Will Houston Regret This Draft Class?
Fair or not, the success of the Ryans tenure is likely going to depend on how well this 2023 draft class performs. Specifically, the Texans need quarterback C.J. Stroud and edge rusher Will Anderson to be studs after taking them with the No. 2 and No. 3 picks in the draft.
We know Houston was going quarterback at No. 2, and there is little reason to knock taking Stroud with Bryce Young off the board. Anthony Richardson is a better runner, but Stroud should be the better pro passer, especially early on. Stroud does not use mobility as well as Young and Richardson, but he will not be a stiff pocket passer in the NFL. Just do not expect him to be Cam Newton or Justin Fields. Oddly enough, Deshaun Watson would be a better comparison than those two, but let’s hope that only extends to the field. Ideally, Stroud would be a confident passer who can put the team on his back, though he is going to have less receiving talent in the NFL than he did at Ohio State (for now).
But the trade-up with Arizona to take Anderson with the No. 3 pick raised many eyebrows. To move up from No. 12, Houston sent Arizona the No. 12 pick, the No. 33 pick, their 2024 first-round pick, and a 2024 third-round pick.
That is quite the king’s ransom, so they better hope Anderson is an elite pass rusher, which he was at Alabama. But this is the NFL and these things do not always work out. Houston knows this very well as Jadeveon Clowney was one of the most hyped No. 1 picks in 2014 for the Texans, and he is on his fifth team and only has 43 career sacks.
Even Mario Williams, the No. 1 pick by Houston in the 2006 draft, was not a sure-fire Hall of Fame type of pass rusher. Some of his best years ended up coming with the Bills.
For Anderson to be a hit that justifies this trade, he would basically have to be the second coming of J.J. Watt, which is just not realistic. However, a player between the caliber of Mario Williams and Watt would be very useful to Ryans and the Texans, especially if it means consistent sack and pressure numbers for a number of years and a face on the defense to build around.
Most draft picks should not be criticized if the player is a hit, but it just seems like the overpay angle is going to come up frequently with Anderson if he is not an annual candidate for Defensive Player of the Year.
But if the Texans indeed have their quarterback and pass rusher for the next decade, then this draft class will be the turning point of their turnaround from the bottom depths of the NFL.
Best Bets for the 2023 Texans
The Jaguars and Titans are certainly in better shape than the Texans right now. The Colts are in a similar boat with a rookie coach and quarterback, though the Texans already went 1-0-1 against them last year.
The teams with rookie quarterbacks will play each other this year as Carolina faces Houston in Week 8. By the time Arizona comes to Houston in Week 11, Kyler Murray could be back, but it would not be surprising if the Cardinals are on a path to those top draft picks.
While the schedule is not overly daunting, the Texans are just too undermanned and inexperienced to seriously compete this year. They should be more watchable than the last two years, but there will be a lot of growing pains first. Take the under 6.5 wins, but even a 6-11 finish for Ryans and Stroud would be respectable in Year 1.
NFL Pick: Houston Texans Under 6.5 wins (-142 at FanDuel)
