By Will Helms
Each week, I break down which players are moving either up or down the college football Heisman list. In Week 3, we saw more movement than we have all season and I’m really excited to get into things. Since our shortlist is shrinking, I’m only using two players for each of the sections, but I’m adding a third “Worth Monitoring” section.
The guys in this list probably won’t take home the trophy, but they’re worth paying attention to going forward and I’m excited to sneak a few names onto that list that aren’t getting enough recognition.
Stock Up
CJ Stroud, QB- Ohio State (+200)
Here’s the thing. If you don’t have money on Stroud, now isn’t the time to change that. His price point simply isn’t great right now, given that he still isn’t the clear favorite. That being said, he will be the clear favorite if he continues to play like this.
His efficiency is through the roof right now, as he’s completing 73 percent of his passes and leads the country in passing touchdowns while he’s yet to throw a pick. Stroud’s latest performance included as many touchdowns (5) as incompletions while he threw for a season-high 367 yards.
Stroud is certainly the favorite at this point, but I’m not ready to call it yet and I don’t love his short odds at the moment. If you’re really looking to bet Stroud, go for it, but just know that the value was much better before the season.
Stetson Bennett IV, QB- Georgia (+2000)
Bennett absolutely lit up South Carolina’s fairly decent passing defense and moved from +1400 to +1200 on DraftKings. FanDuel, however, still has him at 20-to-1.
This is my official apology note to Bennett, whom I moved down in my rankings last week, simply because he didn’t throw for eight touchdowns against Samford. At this point, I don’t see how you can have him anywhere outside of the top 4 and his numbers put him closer to 1 than 4.
He’s averaging 10.8 yards an attempt with five touchdowns (Plus three on the ground) and no interceptions. He’s top 10 in just about every statistical category and the advanced numbers suggest the Bulldogs may have the most potent pass offense in the country. Unlike Stroud, Bennett is not throwing to a bunch of NFL receivers (Well, outside of Brock Bowers).
It’s time to give Bennett his due, as he’s playing as well as anybody else in the country. The difference between him and everyone else is that Georgia also looks unstoppable and given his long odds, now is the time to get in.
Stock Down
Bryce Young, QB- Alabama (+500)
Young keeps sliding back just a bit each week. After starting the season as a favorite, Young has slipped behind Stroud and Caleb Williams in the last two weeks.
He hasn’t been bad this year, but without the same dynamic receiving corps as last season, he’s struggled at times. Last week, he was picked off twice in a blowout win over Louisiana-Monroe while passing for a season-high 236 yards. For reference, Bennett and Stroud have combined for just one game under 280 yards passing.
He still could go high in the draft and he’s not playing poorly; he’s just not playing to the level required of him to win the Heisman.
If you’re all in on Young, then feel free to take advantage of the dip, but his chances of becoming a repeat winner seem slimmer than the numbers suggest.
Worth Monitoring
Caleb Williams, QB- USC (+300)
I’m still not all-in on Williams, but he’s definitely worth a look. This week will be a good test for him and his struggling offensive line against Oregon State, though it’ll be hard to find the game on TV.
I won’t consider Williams a true contender until we see him perform against a high-level defense on a real stage. It’s great if he’s playing well on Pac-12 Alternate, or whatever random streaming channel 75 percent of the country doesn’t get, but it’d be better if he were putting up can’t-miss numbers on a national stage.
Michael Penix Jr., QB- Washington (+4500)
As an avid Michael Penix Jr. fan, even I am surprised by how well he’s been playing. He was awesome for Indiana, but had three-straight season-ending injuries. He’s transferred into Washington and has the Huskies rolling.
His path to the award comes through running through a Pac 12 schedule and dominating in some high-profile end-of-season games. The schedule is very favorable and the Huskies could be undefeated going into late-season clashes with Oregon State and Oregon. With 3-straight 300-yard games, he’s lurking and just needs the team success to continue to get some recognition.
Jalon Daniels, QB- Kansas (+12000)
Really, this entire section was designed to get Daniels on it.
The junior is averaging 8.1 yards a pass and 8.8 yards a rush, the kind of dual-threat production that gets players on watch lists. He’s not winning this season, but if Kansas is legit, he’ll get some votes. College football is more fun when Kansas actually causes chaos, and if you haven’t seen Daniels play yet, what are you even doing?
