By Scott Kacsmar
For 30 years, the Green Bay Packers had quarterback consistency the other NFL franchises would kill for. You knew every year that Brett Favre or Aaron Rodgers was going to be their answer at quarterback, and that is why quarterback-lacking teams like the Chicago Bears and Detroit Lions have struggled so much in the NFC North.
The Packers have won 63.3% of their regular-season games since 1992, the second-best record in the NFL in that time (Patriots, 64.9%).
But we are in a new era now that Rodgers has been traded to the Jets. No one really knows what to expect from Jordan Love as he finally gets to be the starter in his fourth season, but the NFC North is up for grabs to all four teams.
We look back at the end of the Rodgers era in 2022, the key offseason changes, the expectations for Love, and what the best Packers bets are for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: End of an Era
In what would become the final season for Aaron Rodgers in Green Bay, the team made sure to lay another Week 1 egg before rallying to a 3-1 start. However, something felt different this time from the previous years when the Packers won 13 games and finished with the No. 1 seed. Rodgers was not going to last long in the MVP race without a true No. 1 wide receiver after the team traded Davante Adams to the Raiders.
But the Packers were getting by at 3-1 even if it meant relying on the defense in a 14-12 win over Tom Brady’s Buccaneers or coming back to beat the Patriots in overtime despite a rare pick-six thrown by Rodgers.
But everything changed in a Week 5 loss to the Giants in London. Rodgers broke his thumb and was unable to solve the pass rush in a 27-22 loss. This kicked off a 5-game losing streak that would have been 8 games had Rodgers not pulled off one more magical comeback against Dallas, erasing a 14-point deficit in the fourth quarter before winning in overtime.
Green Bay struggled to score as Rodgers tried to play through the injury with a cast of young receivers who also were injured multiple times. Rookie Christian Watson did eventually impress with 8 touchdowns in 4 games as the Dallas comeback was his breakout moment.
But after losing 40-33 to the Eagles in a wild game that saw Rodgers leave injured and replaced by Love, who threw a touchdown to Watson, the Packers were just 4-8. We have seen this team rally before in the Rodgers era to make the playoffs, but it would take a crazy combination of takeaways and a favorable schedule for Green Bay to win the next four games to get back to 8-8.
The Packers had 12 takeaways, half of their season output, during the 4-game winning streak. They intercepted Tua Tagovailoa and Kirk Cousins three times each in back-to-back wins over playoff teams.
Everything set up well for a Green Bay wild card spot with the last game of the season at home against Detroit on Sunday Night Football. Rodgers needed to make up for a rough 15-9 loss in Detroit earlier in the season when he threw 3 interceptions and had some bad luck with bounces.
But the Lions were game, and the Packers were down in the fourth quarter. Rodgers’ last pass as a Packer proved to be a season-ending interception as the Lions went on to run out the clock and won 20-16. The Packers finished 8-9 and missed the playoffs.
Offseason Review
In typical Green Bay fashion, the Packers did not break the bank on free agents, nor did they use a first-round pick on a skilled player as some thought they might.
Sometimes, getting your best players back healthy is more important than which players you add to the team. The Packers are hoping to have left tackle David Bakhtiari for a full season after he was in and out of the lineup last year. He has only played in 12 games since 2021, and you have to go back to 2019 to find the last time he played 16 games.
The Packers will also welcome back Rashan Gary, one of their best pass rushers after he missed the last 8 games last season. He still finished second on the team with 6.0 sacks despite time missed. Green Bay’s pass rush also could get help from first-round pick Lukas Van Ness, who should be part of the rotation this year.
While the Packers did not draft someone like tight end Dalton Kincaid in the first round, they used a second-round pick on tight end Luke Musgrave. They also used a third-round pick on tight end Tucker Kraft, getting younger and faster at the position after veterans Robert Tonyan and Marcedes Lewis both joined the Bears this offseason.
Youth is really the theme for this team at the skill positions, and we are not just talking about Love’s inexperience at quarterback. With Allen Lazard and Randall Cobb following Rodgers to the Jets, the Packers could be looking at a wide receiver corps led by three players in their first or second seasons Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, and second-round rookie Jayden Reed.
This would make the Green Bay skill players one of the youngest collective groups in quite some time. They will try to learn together under the same coach (Matt LaFleur) and offensive coordinator (Adam Stenavich) from last year.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Love Replacing a Legend in Rodgers
Replacing a legend at quarterback is never easy, and the Packers already have done it once with Rodgers taking over for Favre. But even that transition did not go smoothly in 2008 as the Packers finished 6-10 after losing too many close games. But they would be better for it in 2009 and beyond.
Here is every example of a Hall of Fame (or at least in the discussion) quarterback in the salary cap era and what his team did without him for that first season:
In 22 examples involving 19 different quarterbacks, only 3-of-22 teams made the playoffs, and that was Montana’s Chiefs and Marino’s Dolphins doing it on defense. Geno Smith had a Pro Bowl season for the Seahawks last year, who snuck in as the No. 7 seed on the final day of the season. On a more positive note, 7-of-22 teams finished with a winning record.
In Green Bay’s case, Love could be a better replacement prospect than what many of these teams had ready to go. Love was a first-round pick in 2020, he has been learning the offense for years, and he has more pass attempts than Rodgers had going into his fourth season in 2008. Remember, the only decent outing Rodgers had in three years was that 2007 game in Dallas when Favre left injured.
Things have not looked great for Love, but he did at least throw a touchdown against the Eagles last year. His lone start in Kansas City in 2021 was a tough spot, and it did not go well. But that was only one start.
The Packers have two good running backs to lean on behind what should be a solid offensive line. If Green Bay needs to become more of a team that relies on the run and good defense, then so be it. But they have the pieces for that.
This comes down to LaFleur’s coaching and getting these young skill players on the same page. LaFleur has won 71.2% of his games in Green Bay, though Rodgers is going to take a lot of the credit for that. But the Packers were a drive away from making the playoffs last year despite a 4-8 start and Rodgers having the least efficient, least productive season of his career.
This is LaFleur’s chance to make his mark as an indisputable top coach in the league if he can bring Love along in Year 1 as a starter.
Best Bets for the 2023 Packers
The Packers are no question losing a lot at quarterback as it is all but impossible for Love to ever get on Rodgers’ level as one of the best quarterbacks in NFL history. But Rodgers was not himself last year whether you choose the thumb injury, the loss of Adams, or both.
Anyone in the media claiming that Love cannot play football is simply jumping the gun. He has 86 dropbacks in his career. The Packers entering a season with an aura of mystery at the most important position is a huge change, it makes them an underdog, and they could be a valuable team to bet on this season if things go well.
It is not like the Bears, Lions, or Vikings can be trusted to win 10 games this year. They all ranked behind Green Bay on defense last year. The Lions and Vikings made marginal roster improvements, and the Bears are trying to claw back from a 3-14 finish with the worst passing offense and scoring defense in the NFL.
Going all in on Green Bay to win the division would be a stretch, but this team should win multiple division games. The Packers also get to play the NFC South, the weakest NFC division and they will play teams like the Raiders, Rams, Giants, Steelers, and Broncos.
When there are other NFC teams looking to start Sam Howell (Commanders), Brock Purdy (49ers), Desmond Ridder (Falcons), and Baker Mayfield (Buccaneers) this season, it is no stretch to think LaFluer can make something of Love and this young talent as the team moves on from the Rodgers era. That is why our best bet for the Packers is to go over 7.5 wins again.
NFL Pick: Green Bay Packers over 7.5 wins (-122 at FanDuel)
