By Will Helms
There are several ways of formulating baseball bets, especially parlays. While sometimes it pays to bet on good teams, there are days when a bunch of good teams have tricky matchups. With several contenders sending out fourth and fifth starters, I have my eye on a few of the team’s worst teams. Here, I’ve decided to bet against three teams that are a combined 70 games under .500, in a parlay currently listed at +440 on FanDuel.
Nationals ML (-130)
No, the Nationals have not hit lefties well in recent games, but they’ll get a reprieve against the struggling Mike Minor and the Cincinnati Reds on Friday night.
Minor’s numbers haven’t been great, but the underlying stats may be worse. In his sixth season in the majors, Minor has posted his worst-ever ERA and a WHIP nearly 50 percent higher than his career average in the majors.
Adding to that, Minor’s walk rate is at a career-high and his strikeout rate is at a career low while he’s also allowing a lot of loud contact. Opponents are barreling the ball against Minor, especially in recent weeks.
On the flip side, the Nationals will send out one of their top prospects in right-hander Cade Cavalli for his Major League debut. Historically, high-profile starters have fared well in low-leverage debuts. Debuts don’t get much simpler than Cavalli’s. There’s always some pressure when making your debut, but Cavalli will get to ease into the league against a struggling lineup.
Cavalli will get the attention. The righty will immediately become one of the hardest throwers in the league, with a fastball that can touch 102. He brings a plus changeup and curveball that will likely be hard to pick up the first time through the order. He doesn’t have to be brilliant, just good enough and the Nationals should win.
Get on this one quickly, because there’s been some sharp movement driving the odds in Washington’s favor.
Brewers ML (-158)
The Brewers have been a tricky team to figure out this season with a plus bullpen and several elite starters, but a knack for somehow losing some games they should win. I’m not as worried about that with Freddy Peralta on the hill against the lowly Cubs. Peralta is giving up a ridiculously low 3.3 percent barrel rate and he’s been on a recent hot streak that should continue Friday.
Peralta’s only downfall this season has been some uncharacteristic wildness. The Cubs, however, have one of the highest whiff rates in baseball and are swinging far more than the average team. I don’t see a world where Chicago works the count and gets Peralta into long innings like some other teams have done. Peralta played well in his last outing, also against the Cubs, a game in which Devon Williams was uncharacteristically wild.
Williams is well-rested and should this game come down to his arm in the ninth, it’s highly unlikely he’ll face the same fate as his last outing against the Cubs.
Padres -1.5 (-115)
Joe Musgrove and the up-and-down Padres go on the road to face the 51-75 Royals. The Royals are 25th in the league in OPS and traded away Andrew Benintendi, who bolstered that number before moving to the Yankees.
This is the perfect matchup for Musgrove, who doesn’t walk many hitters and rarely gives up hard contact. Kansas City will struggle to get men on base and will struggle to hit for power against Musgrove, who has pitched a quality start in nine of his 11 road starts this season.
This does hinge on the Padres offense finding its mojo again after a surprising slump. Juan Soto was scratched from Wednesday’s game, but if he finds himself in the lineup Friday, expect the line to move.
The Padres have made some loud contact without much to show for it in recent days, so I think this is the game that could break them out of the slump. Expect the bats to come alive and the Padres to play more confident baseball.
As a bonus here, I like Musgrove under 6.5 strikeouts. The Royals typically like to work the count and make a lot of weak contact. I don’t expect a lot of high-leverage situations, so Musgrove may try to pitch to contact to expend his outing. Either way, expect a low-scoring 5-3 type of game.
