By Will Helms
After a 6-2 week last week (including one really, really bad beat), I’m back with a few early CFB spreads I like. As I write this on Sunday afternoon, there’s already been some line movement on a few of these. For the sake of transparency, I’ll post the line I snagged these at as well as a limit at which I’d stop considering it a good bet.
Alabama -18 (@ Texas)
Texas is not back and until they prove otherwise, I will not trust the Longhorns. Especially against Alabama, I just don’t like the Longhorns’ chances. With mismatches all over the field, the Crimson Tide hold a distinct talent advantage at every position except running back. Bryce Young can apparently run now (Which is truly terrifying for opposing defenses) and Quinn Ewers didn’t exactly inspire confidence in Texas’ opener against a bad UL Monroe team.
For Texas to have any chance, Bijan Robinson has to have a Heisman-worthy game, while Will Anderson and the Alabama defense would have to struggle to get pressure on Ewers. Alabama is too stout against the run to allow Robinson to take over and I just don’t trust the Texas offensive line to hold up against Alabama’s front.
A couple of sites opened this as low as -14.5 and it was rapidly grown to its current -18. I’d expect the line to settle around -19.5 or -20 by midweek and I’d honestly still bet it there.
Prediction: Tide Roll and win this one big, 41-17
Notre Dame -18.5 (vs. Marshall) & Under 53.5 (FanDuel)
Notre Dame honestly impressed me Saturday, keeping Ohio State’s high-powered offense at bay and making CJ Stroud look quite pedestrian for nearly three and a half quarters. On the flip side, the offense struggled at times, but I saw more than enough out of quarterback Tyler Buchner to excite me.
Marshall ran all over FCS Norfolk State Saturday en route to a 55-3 drubbing. The defense allowed just 114 yards all game, including a meager 0.9 yards per carry. However, Norfolk State doesn’t have the athletes Notre Dame has. Marshall defensive back Steven Gilmore is sneakily one of the top corners in the country, but Michael Mayer and Notre Dame have too much size and athleticism.
Expect the line to creep up around 20.5. We’ve never seen Marcus Freeman coach with a big lead, so I don’t like this if it reaches -21, as the first-year head coach could choose to play the reserves with a big lead. That being said, I love this line up -20 and think there’s some great value here. As a bonus, I think this total (52.5) is too high.
Prediction: Notre Dame gets up early and cruises to victory, 34-13
Mississippi State -7.5 (@ Arizona) -DraftKings
Arizona was the one outlier in an otherwise excellent week for us last week, beating what I thought was a tough San Diego State team by 18 points. I’m not ready to declare Arizona a powerhouse yet though, and I love that Mississippi State is only favored by just over a touchdown on DraftKings. FanDuel and other sites have a much wider margin on the game, with the Bulldogs nearly a 10-point road favorite.
Arizona has not magically fixed its offense in one offseason (At least not enough to keep up with the Bulldogs) and Mississippi State’s offense is substantially better than SDSU’s (58 spots higher in SP+ offensive rating). Expect Will Rogers to light up a suspect Wildcat defense in a fun Mike Leach against the Pac-12 game.
One note here. There is always the possibility of a September Mike Leach dud. I don’t expect it to happen here, but if it does, we know where we’ve gone wrong.
Prediction: Will Rogers becomes a dark horse Heisman candidate as Mississippi State rolls, 41-24
Tennessee -4.5 (@ Pittsburgh)
Tennessee and Pittsburgh is a matchup of contrasting styles: Josh Heupel’s full speed ahead spread attack against Pat Narduzzi’s slow and steady approach.
Last week, the Panthers were thoroughly outplayed for most of the game, only making a comeback on a questionable fourth-and-1 punt and a dropped pass that led to a pick six. Outside of that, the Panthers looked to be on the ropes.
Pittsburgh’s corners struggled all night to cover West Virginia’s larger receivers. Now the Panthers line up against Bru McCoy (6’3, 220) and Cedric Tillman (6’3, 215). That doesn’t include speedster Jalin Hyatt or quarterback Hendon Hooker, who runs Tennessee’s spread to perfection.
I was simply not impressed with Pittsburgh on Thursday and now the Panthers face a much better Tennessee offense. I really like the Volunteers in this spot and as long as the Panthers don’t stay in it long enough to get the crowd going, the Volunteers could roll. Bet anything up to about 7 or 8.
Prediction: Volunteers expose Pittsburgh behind big games from Tillman and McCoy, 31-20
