By Will Helms
Last week, we got a great reminder that in the short-term, a great closing line value doesn’t always guarantee a profit. My early CFB spreads all moved between 2 and 4.5 points in my favor throughout the week (Meaning if you jumped on these early, you got a better line for yourself). However, I still only went 2-2 (3-2 if you count my bonus Marshall-Notre Dame Under) with Notre Dame and Alabama both falling well short of a cover (Like the rest of the top 10).
In the long run though, consistently getting closing line value will earn you money and I’m here to prove that this week with four more early lines I think are great value plays this week. These are listed at the number at first writing, so if they’ve moved more consider twice before blindly betting them.
Assuming you weren’t one of the people lucky enough to find Oklahoma -4.5 against Nebraska in the minutes before Scott Frost was fired, here are four early lines to jump on.
Cincinnati (-20) vs. Miami (OH)
This one actually moved a bit from the time I saw it to the time I started writing this. Cincinnati easily dispatched FCS Kennesaw State Saturday a week after falling just short against a great Arkansas team. I loved betting against the Bearcats in Week 1 but I love them in this spot, in a home matchup against a mid-tier MAC team.
Miami has been decent this season, losing to No. 9 Kentucky and then defeating Robert Morris. However, the Redhawks are inexperienced and haven’t shown much ability to play up to stiffer competition. The Redhawks fell apart once Kentucky had its first big play, despite keeping up with the Wildcats in the first half. In that game, they lost their star quarterback, Brett Gabbert.
Here, they’ll likely go with Aveon Smith, who played well enough, but does not provide the upside or big-play ability as Gabbert.
On the flip side, Ben Bryant is settling in nicely and though the Bearcats don’t have any superstars at the skill positions, there are far too many weapons for the Redhawks to defend against.
Prediction: Cincinnati pulls away in the second half, 38-10
Syracuse (+2.5) vs. Purdue
You’ll have to get this one on DraftKings, because FanDuel has already started to move towards Syracuse. Frankly, the wrong team is favored. Syracuse’s defense is vastly improved and the offense—led by former Virginia offensive coordinator Robert Anae—looks incredibly impressive.
Garrett Schrader looks like Brenna Armstrong did last season and he’s stressing defenses with both his legs and his arm, scoring eight touchdowns with no turnovers this year. The Boilermakers haven’t really faced elite quarterback play this season and haven’t been challenged by a dual-threat at the position.
Oh, and Syracuse still has Sean Tucker.
Purdue’s offense disappeared for an entire quarter when it mattered at the end of the Penn State game and I don’t think Purdue has figured out all of the issues.
Prediction: Schrader throws for two and runs for another. Syracuse and Tucker close the door late, 34-24
Mississippi State (-2.5) @ LSU
Run to get this line. It already moved substantially before I got to it and I took it immediately anyway. LSU Is not great and is playing one of our favorite teams to bet so far this season. For the third straight week, Vegas has undervalued Mike Leach’s team in his third year at the helm.
Historically, Leach’s teams have taken 3-4 years to really reach their potential and this seems to be the year for the Bulldogs. Will Rogers looks every bit like the air raid aficionado that Leach has told us for three years that he would be. The difference for this team is that the defense is largely improved. The run defense and defensive backs have both been excellent and the Bulldogs face another transfer quarterback this week in LSU’s Jayden Daniels.
Don’t let a blowout win fool you, the Tigers simply aren’t very good. The issues that we all saw on national television against Florida State didn’t suddenly go away because the team beat FCS Southern.
Prediction: Mississippi State moves to 3-0 behind a big game from Rogers, 35-21
Georgia State (-19.5) vs. Charlotte
Ignore the records here. Georgia State has been impressive in its ability to run the ball in the last two weeks against Power Five competition and faces a Charlotte defense that has just been gashed by its first two opponents.
Charlotte’s offense simply hasn’t been the same without senior quarterback Chris Reynolds and the 49ers look demoralized. Grant Dubose has been a bright spot, but he’ll face a stiff challenge in Georgia State corner Qua White. The Panthers have given up 35 points a game, but that’s entirely misleading, with two scores by the South Carolina special teams unit. North Carolina, as we’ve seen, can score on anyone and I’m not concerned with the Panther defense at all.
If quarterback Darren Grainger can show the tiniest bit of consistency, the Panther offense will be in full swing. Georgia State wants to get in the win column before heading into conference play, so expect the Panthers to try to get out some frustration against the 49ers.
Prediction: Georgia State puts up nearly 300 yards on the ground and rolls to an easy 42-14 victory.
