NCAA Final Four Preview and Betting Picks – #9 Florida Atlantic University vs #5 San Diego State University

It’s called March Madness for a reason, but this season has been madder than ever. A tournament that has featured shocking upsets, questionable calls, and incredible shooting performances has found three of the four teams left have made their first Final Four in their program’s history. Also, for the first time in tournament history, all four #1 seeds were knocked out by the Elite Eight and there will be no #1, #2, or #3 seed competing in the Final Four. Despite the tournament favorites being booted early, the 2023 March Madness tournament has lived up to the hype and will conclude with two amazing matchups to see who will compete for the National Championship on Monday Night. There is some great value available this weekend, so be sure to check out our betting picks and game predictions for the Final Four below! (Odds via Bet365)

Game Info

Date: Saturday, April 1st, 2023

Time: 5:09 pm Local Time (CST)

Location: NRG Stadium — Houston, Texas

TV: CBS

Betting Info

Spread: SDSU -2

Over/Under: 131.5

The first matchup of the night will feature the Conference USA and East Regional Champion Florida Atlantic Owls against the Mountain West Conference and South Regional Champion San Diego State Aztecs for a chance to play in the National Championship. A matchup featuring two contrasting styles of play, FAU’s scorching hot offense will try to outlast the suffocating SDSU defense in a battle of strength on strength. 

San Diego State Aztecs Preview

The San Diego State Aztecs are a veteran and deep team filled with incredible athletes that smother their opponents scoring chances. With a versatile lineup that runs 9 players deep, the Azetcs rode their defense all the way through their current 8 game win streak, bringing them their seventh Mountain West Conference Championship and first Final Four appearance in program history. After being underrated by the selection committee as a #5 seed, the Aztecs throttled their first two opponents of Charleston and Furman on their way to their third Sweet 16 appearance ever. But the Aztecs were not satisfied heading into their matchup against the #1 ranked team in the tournament and the favorite to win the National Title, the Alabama Crimson Tide, led by upcoming NBA lottery pick Brandon Miller. The Aztecs rose to the occasion, coming back from a 9-point deficit with 11:49 remaining and shutting down Miller completely, holding him to just 9 points on 3-19 shooting. Also, the Aztecs forced 14 turnovers, blocked 8 shots, and held Alabama to just 11% shooting from 3 and 32% shooting from the field. In their next matchup in the South Regional Final vs Creighton, their defense came to play once again, holding the Blue Jays to 56 points and just two made 3-pointers. San Diego State was able to top Creighton despite shooting just 38% (25-66) from the field, and 23% (3-13) from behind the arc, due to their stellar defensive play. 

Their offense is methodical and their shooting sometimes runs cold, but they can rely on their athleticism and playmaking to force turnovers and get buckets in transition. Their leading scorer Matt Bradley has struggled to score in the tournament, but other players have stepped up on the offensive end, especially their guard combo of Darrion Tremmell and Lamont Butler. Tremmel led the way in SDSU’s win over Alabama, scoring 21 points, and led the Aztecs’ comeback by making big shots down the stretch. Butler took control in their win over Creighton, scoring 18 points on an efficient 73% shooting. Coming off two incredible defensive performances in the Sweet 16 and Elite 8, the Aztecs will continue to rely on their defense to shut down an FAU team with plenty of scoring, but with shot-making at a premium at this stage in the tournament, someone will have to step on the offensive end and make big buckets down the stretch once again. 

Florida Atlantic Owls Preview 

The Florida Atlantic Owls have been the winningest team in Division I this season with a record of 35-3 but are only in their second NCAA tournament in program history. They had never won an NCAA Tournament game before ripping off four straight this year, all by single digits, to become the first No. 9 seed to reach the Final Four since Wichita State in 2013. Although they are the lowest seed to make the Final Four this year, FAU doesn’t feel like much of a Cinderella story, more so as a team that has been overlooked all year for playing in a weaker conference. FAU landing as a #9 seed in this year’s tournament is likely more a reflection of the selection committee discounting Conference USA and questioning the team’s quality wins — though the Owls have made that seeding look silly during this Final Four push. 

The Owls are filled with shooters with 5 players in their rotation shooting 34% or better from the 3-point range that surround their 7-foot Russian big-man, Vlad Goldin. Johnell Davis has been the star for FAU, racking up 17.3 points per game, 7.8 rebounds per game and 3.3 assists per game in the tournament, but in their Elite Eight win over Kansas State, it was his fellow shot-makers that made the difference for the Owls. Alijah Martin and Bryan Greenlee got hot from deep, knocking down 7 combined threes on 54% shooting and making big shots down the stretch. With the game on the line, it was their Senior guard Michael Forrest knocking down 4 clutch free throws to secure the win for the Owls, topping off a complete performance and highlighting the Owls’ depth.

 “All the things people say just fuels us to go out there and play even harder,” said Bryan Greenlee who scored 16 points before fouling out. “They can say whatever they want, say we’re a Cinderella team, say we don’t belong, but we’ve constantly proven people wrong all season.”

Even though they committed 22 turnovers in the game, something they will have to clean up in their next matchup against the athletic and defensive-minded Aztecs, the Owls played a complete game on both ends of the floor and showed that they belong on the National Stage. Even if it’s not pretty, FAU has continued to find ways to win unexpectedly and although they may be outmanned by SDSU, their ability to overcome the odds and defy expectations may continue in a tournament that has been filled with unpredictable outcomes and shock upsets.

Matchup Preview

Both teams are tough and athletic, but their contrasting styles of play should make this an incredibly entertaining matchup. Both teams are exceptional at what they do and their strengths will be put to the test against the best competition available. With San Diego State so good at defending the 3-point line, the ability to take advantage of the mid-range area, and the spot on the floor the SDSU is okay with giving up open looks, will decide the game for FAU. Although the Owls trio of Davis, Martin, and Greenlee are a bit undersized compared to San Diego State’s athletic wings, they are great scorers off the dribble. They generally rely on the 3-pointer and their rolling big man to score, but they will have to adapt their game and find space in the middle of the defense to find points against an exceptional Aztecs defense. 

Also, FAU must clean up their turnovers if they want any chance of winning. They were able to escape their last matchup against Kansas State with a win despite giving up 22 turnovers, but that will not bode well against this Aztecs team who thrive at forcing turnovers and scoring easy baskets in transition. On the other end of the floor, the Aztecs have several scorers that can bully their way to the hoop and draw fouls against the smaller guards of FAU, so keeping control of the ball and limiting transition buckets will be crucial for their chances. Although SDSU doesn’t shoot particularly efficiently from the outside, their size might be too much for the Owls defense to deal with, especially if they don’t take care of the ball. 

One more note worth mentioning is the experience factor. The Aztecs have a veteran lineup that knows what it takes to win in high-pressure, high-stakes situations. Their leadership and composure under pressure will be invaluable as they navigate the twists and turns of this intense matchup under the bright lights in Houston. FAU has been able to defy expectations to this point, but to continue their historic run they must be able to deal with the pressure of playing in a packed football stadium with an appearance in the National Championship on the line. 

Betting Picks and Game Predictions

Parlay – Spread and Total – San Diego State -2 and Under 131.5

Florida Atlantic has shocked a lot of people thus far and it wouldn’t be a surprise if this is another close game. However, San Diego State’s defense is as elite as it gets and will be tough for the undersized guards of FAU to break down. A big reason why Florida Atlantic got by Creighton was by shooting 39.1% from the three-point line. Now, the Owls face the Aztecs, who’ve only given up an average of 3.7 three-pointers on 15.7% shooting over the last three games. They’ve also been averaging 42 rebounds and 11 forced turnovers over that stretch, indicating that FAU will be under pressure all night long.

If San Diego State will win, parlaying the under to increase the value of the bet is a smart move considering the Aztecs rely so much on their defense to win games. On their 8-game winning streak, the under has hit every time and the last time they gave up over 65 points was on February 26th. The Aztecs are allowing just 57.3 PPG through 4 games in the tournament and are scoring only 66.5 PPG themselves. While not as frequent, Florida Atlantic has also experienced the under in five of its last seven games and only scored 62 points against the defensive-minded Tennessee Volunteers in the Sweet 16. It’s safe to say that another low-scoring and competitive affair is on the way.

Prop – FAU’s Vlad Goldin over 6.5 rebounds

Goldin averages 8.3 rebounds a game and is coming off a 13-rebound performance in their last game, making his over for rebounds an intriguing prop bet. With SDSU being a defensive-minded team, their offense sometimes struggles, leaving plenty of opportunities for the Owls’ 7-footer to snag rebounds over his shorter opponents. As mentioned earlier, SDSU was able to win their last game shooting just 25-66 from the field, leaving 41 opportunities for defensive rebounds in their last game. FAU surrounds Goldin with smaller guards, so he would most likely have the best chance to snag defensive rebounds if SDSU shoots poorly once again. 

Also, with SDSU always committed to taking away the 3-point shot and relying on their athleticism to defend 1 on 1 in the paint, there should be plenty of opportunities for Goldin to use his size to get offensive rebounds off of misses. As a team that runs a lot of pick and rolls to free up space for their shooters, Goldin’s ability to find space in the defense has been impressive all tournament and he should be able to capitalize on the offensive glass once again, especially considering FAU relies so much on their outside shooting. Goldin excels at utilizing his length to get putbacks and tip-ins at the rim which also could add to his rebound total. 

Prop – SDSU’s Matt Bradley Under 12.5 points

Bradley has struggled offensively as of late, shooting just 6-27 in his last 3 games and averaging just 6 points in that span. With their season on the line, SDSU has looked to their other playmakers to step up on the offensive end and won’t rely on Bradley to score as much as they used to. With such a deep lineup, if Bradley runs cold to start the game he could be quickly replaced by forward Jaedon Ledee who has had an outstanding tournament off the bench for the Aztecs. Playing with a short leash, it is unlikely that Bradley scores more than 12 unless he starts the game hot.