By Andrew Doherty
Things move quickly in the NFL, and betting lines are no exception. Getting the best number that books offer is absolutely crucial to long-term betting success. Typically the best way to accomplish this is to anticipate line movement and bet early in the week by targeting lines that we think will move before they actually do. Looking at the opening lines for Week Three there are three spreads, in particular, that stand out:
Kansas City -6 @ Indianapolis
Something just isn’t right in Indianapolis and to say that the Colts have been disappointing to start the season would be an understatement. A Week Three date with Kansas City isn’t going to help improve their fortunes, and locking this line in at under a touchdown is a no-brainer.
Last week against the Jaguars, the Colts showed they’re unable to move the ball through the air without Michael Pittman Jr, who missed last week’s game and is questionable to play this week with a quad injury. While Pittman Jr could suit up this week, it’s very likely he won’t be playing at anywhere close to 100%. Regardless of Pittman Jr’s health, Chiefs head coach Andy Reid is a brilliant strategist who will prioritize containing Pittman Jr and will dare Indianapolis to either beat him by throwing to their complimentary pass-catching pieces or on the ground.
Beating teams on the ground is what you do when you have Jonathan Taylor and a great offensive line, right? Not exactly. The Colts were only able to gain a pedestrian 54 total rushing yards last week against the lowly Jaguars defense. This low total had nothing to do with game script or emphasis on the passing game, as Indianapolis was only able to muster 164 total yards through the air.
It looks like things are starting to come unglued in Indianapolis, and I’m taking this line with confidence all the way to -7.
Cleveland -4 vs Pittsburgh
I expect this line to move in Cleveland’s favor very quickly; we could see it hit -5 or -5.5 by the time this article is published. There’s still plenty of value at -5 and -5.5, so don’t fret if you’re unable to get it at -4.
Despite a defensive meltdown against the Jets aerial attack last week, Cleveland is well positioned to stifle Pittsburgh’s passing game. It’s pretty simple: the Browns lost in Week Two because they let up 309 yards through the air to Joe Flacco. This week, however, Cleveland gets Mitch Trubisky and a Steelers offense that ranks dead last in yard per drive. Behind one of the weakest offensive lines in the league, Trubisky won’t have the time in the pocket to allow things to develop downfield and shred the Browns in the deep passing game the way the Jets did.
The game plan for Cleveland is simple: control the clock and slow the game down. Cleveland’s got one of the deepest running back rooms in the league, highlighted by their lethal 1-2 punch of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt. The Browns racked up 184 yards on the ground last week, and should have no issues running the ball against a Steelers defense that is missing TJ Watt and just allowed 124 yards rushing to the struggling Patriots offense.
This line won’t be available on Thursday, so lock it in now and wake up Friday morning 1-0 on the week.
Philadelphia -3.5 @ Washington
This line will move in a hurry after the Eagles dismantled the Vikings on Monday Night Football, in a game that was much more lopsided than the final score would suggest. I locked it in at -3.5 just before that game kicked off, but I’d be comfortable betting this all the way up to -6.5 if it moves that far.
Carson Wentz has been much more competent through two games than many expected. The pass-catching trio of Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, and rookie Jahan Dotson has looked pretty good. The Commanders running game, on the other hand, has not. Washington has failed to eclipse 90 yards on the ground in either game this season, posting 88 yards against the Lions and 85 against the Jaguars. In Week Three they face the Eagles stout defensive front that just limited the Vikings to 62 total yards rushing, impressively holding star running back Dalvin Cook to a subpar 17 yards rushing on 6 attempts. The Commanders are in a spot where they’ll need to rely on turnover-prone Carson Wentz to air it out often and win this one with his arm – and that’s a bad position to be in with the ball-hawking Darius Slay roaming the secondary.
The outlook doesn’t look much better for Washington on the other side of the ball; it’s a tall task to defend AJ Brown, Devonta Smith and Dallas Goedert – all while containing Jalen Hurts and not allowing him to escape the pocket. Eagles running back Miles Sanders has played well through two games this year, adding another element to their explosive offense. It looks like things are really starting to click for the Philadelphia offense, and there’s no reason to believe the Commanders defense is going to be the ones to show them down.
Getting the Eagles at such a low number this week won’t last, so get this one locked in before the oddmakers smarten up and move the line.
