By Andrew Doherty
It’s the NFL’s Week 6 and I’m going to try something different. This week I’ll be introducing a “Play of the Week”, which will feature whichever betting line I believe will move the most by kickoff. Or in this week’s case, a line I believe to be flat-out wrong. So without further ado, here are the early lines I’m on for Week 6:
NFL Play of the Week: Patriots +3 @ Browns
Full disclosure: I’m not totally convinced this line will even move given the uncertainty at quarterback for New England. As the betting market awaits updates on the Week Six status for QB Mac Jones, I’m here to tell you that this is a smash spot for the Patriots either way. In fact, let’s operate under the assumption that Mac Jones is already ruled out for this matchup.
The Patriots and Browns are very similar on offense as long as Bailey Zappe and Jacoby Brissett are under center. Both teams feature a solid but unspectacular group of pass catchers, limited in their passing attack by being forced to rely on backup quarterbacks. Each team has leaned heavily on their stout offensive lines and the power run game to be the focal point of their offensive attacks. The dynamic running back tandems on either team are the engine that drives each one of these offenses. Cleveland’s 1-2 punch featuring Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt lead the league with 192.4 rushing yards per game, while New England’s duo of Damien Harris and Rhamondre Stevenson average 138 yards per game, good for ninth in the league.
The key to this game will be on defense, or more specifically, how each of these run-first squads defends the run. At first glance, both teams appear to be relatively evenly matched with New England allowing 128.8 yards per game on the ground compared to 138.2 for Cleveland. However, two details stand out: the Patriots allow a half yard less than Cleveland on a per carry basis (4.8 YPC vs 5.3 YPC) and the fact that New England’s rushing yards allowed per game average is skewed by the fact they were gashed for 107 yards on the ground by Lamar Jackson back in Week Three, while Cleveland is yet to face Jackson. Cleveland’s 5.3 yards allowed per carry ranks 28th in the league and the Patriots rushing attack will be the most potent they’ve faced thus far in 2022.
The Patriots matchup against the Lions last week put on full display their ability to suppress the power run game and this week against Cleveland isn’t likely to yield a different result. The Patriots defense has seemingly hit its stride over the past two weeks, and they’re allowing 19.6 points per game on the year compared to 25.0 for Cleveland. New England’s defense also has the advantage in touchdowns allowed per game at 2.2, while the Browns defense averages over half touchdown more at 2.8 on a per game basis. When it comes to creating turnovers the Patriots are tied for eighth in the league at 1.6 per game, while the only two teams in the league average less than the 0.8 takeaways per game the Browns are currently averaging.
A non-statistical factor to consider: Patriots head coach Bill Belichick drafted and developed Browns quarterback Jacoby Brissett in New England. Belichick has spent countless hours with him both on the practice field and in the film room. Coach Belichick has rare insight into Brissett’s strengths, weaknesses, thought process and how he sees the field. Having inside information on the opposing quarterback is a massive advantage for one of the most brilliant game planners in league history. I think New England doesn’t just cover the spread, I have them winning this one outright.
Other NFL Week 6 plays:
Bengals -1 @ Saints
This line is likely to move quickly. The Saints are worse than their 2-3 record would suggest and despite having the same 2-3 record, the Bengals are better than theirs would suggest. I’d expect this line to move to -2 by mid-week and close at either -2.5 or -3 by game time, assuming we don’t have any surprises on this week’s injury reports. Getting ahead of the line movement early will be key in this one.
Buccaneers -8 @ Steelers
In all likelihood, this line closes at -9.5 or -10, especially after injury reports come out. Steelers quarterback Kenny Pickett will be making just his second career start behind one of the worst offensive lines in the league against the Buccaneers relentless front seven. With no run game to speak of and under constant duress from the Buccaneers pass rush, keeping this game from being over by halftime is a big ask from the rookie quarterback.
