By Andrew Doherty
Death, Taxes, and NFL Week 1 overreactions.
It happens every year. Admittedly, it did seem like more teams than usual were sleepwalking to start the year on Sunday. However, we can’t let this cloud our judgment for Week Two.
Things move quickly in the NFL, and betting lines are no exception. Getting the best number that books offer is absolutely crucial to long-term betting success. Typically the best way to accomplish this is to anticipate line movement and bet early in the week by targeting lines that we think will move before they actually do. Looking at the opening lines for Week Two, there are three spreads, in particular, that stand out:
I’m anticipating this line moving to an even 3-point spread fairly early in the week. To me, the market is overvaluing the Chiefs from beating up on a weak, overrated Cardinals team in Week One. As I highlighted prior to Week One in my NFC West betting preview, Arizona’s defense was primed for significant regression after living off turnovers in 2021. Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City offense proceeded to completely dismantle the Cardinals vulnerable defense, but it’s likely to be a different story against the Chargers who have a far superior defense to Arizona’s.
The Chargers also pose far more of a threat on offense than the Cardinals. They’re better in the trenches, have a much better group of pass catchers, and their running backs are superior playmakers. The Chargers are coming off a tough divisional showdown win against the Raiders that wasn’t nearly as flashy as the Chiefs decisive victory against Arizona, which leads to the discrepancy in the value we’re seeing in the betting markets.
Divisional games on Thursday nights tend to be close, especially when both teams are considered favorites to make the playoffs. Lock in the Chargers at +3.5 before this line moves.
Saints +3 vs Buccaneers
Tom Brady’s struggles against the Saints since joining the Buccaneers are well documented. While some of that can be attributed to former Head Coach Sean Payton and his game plans, the Saints defense doesn’t get enough credit for being the elite unit that it is. New Orleans defense has matched up particularly well against the Tampa Bay offense over the past two seasons, and with Tampa’s offense depleted due to retirements and injuries in 2022 that matchup is likely to skew even further in the Saints favor. New Orleans has a significantly better defense than Dallas, who Brady and the Bucs struggled against at times last Sunday.
Despite featuring former Buccaneers QB Jameis Winston under center, the Saints offense will be a much more difficult matchup for Tampa Bay than Dallas was. New Orleans is better than Dallas at each position group on offense, with the exception of quarterback. They also feature a pair of dynamic playmakers in Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas that can single handily wreck a game plan any given week.
Recent history tells us that Brady and the Bucs struggle against New Orleans, and this week should be no exception. You won’t find this line available on Sunday morning, so don’t wait.
There’s no sugarcoating it: both offenses looked downright awful at times in Week One. Cincinnati was able to figure out a way to put some points on the board in the second half, while Dallas struggled all game long. Both teams will be looking for a bounce-back performance in Week Two. Unfortunately for the Cowboys, there isn’t much reason for optimism on Sunday.
It goes without saying but I’ll say it anyways: The Cowboys are in trouble without quarterback Dak Prescott for the foreseeable future. To be fair, the Cowboys looked like they may have been in trouble even with Prescott. Their offensive struggles are only going to be magnified with backup QB Cooper Rush.
Joe Burrow and the Bengals certainly had their share of miscues in Week One but after missing a portion of training camp due to surgery to remove his appendix, it’s understandable that Burrow needed to shake off a bit of rust. Despite star wideout Tee Higgins availability for Sunday in doubt, Cincinnati has no shortage of weapons to match up against an overrated Dallas defense that created an unsustainable amount of turnovers in 2021.
A backup QB for an average team going up against the reigning AFC champs? Don’t overthink this one and lock it in while it’s still under a touchdown.
