Early College Football Lines to Jump on: Week 5

By Will Helms

The last week of college football was an okay week for us. Two of our early favorites were covered easily (The timing really didn’t matter on either, while two struggled (Apparently North Carolina’s defense really is that bad). This weekend was absolutely crazy for me, personally, so I was only able to snag a few quick early lines. For transparency’s sake, I still have four lines, but they aren’t quite as “early” as we’d typically hope for.

Still, trust the process. We should see moderate movement from both of these and with a 12-9-1 record this year, we’re up about 2 units on the year. By continuing to look for favorable lines, that number should continue to creep up.

Michigan -10.5 (@ Iowa)

Kudos to you if you found this ridiculously dumb line when it opened at -4.5. It’s moved six points and I still love it. Iowa just flat out cannot score and with the total hovering around 42, it’s implied that the Hawkeyes will reach the end zone twice.

Not happening.

Michigan’s defense struggled a bit against Maryland’s platoon of future NFL skill players, but still only gave up 5.4 yards a play and forced two turnovers. That was against Taulia Tagovailoa and a really good offense.

Iowa’s defense is the only thing that has been keeping it in games, all of which have come against offenses far worse than Michigan’s. Blake Corum has been on a tear and I expect that to continue.

Prediction: Michigan moves the ball on Iowa, Iowa doesn’t on Michigan. Wolverines win, 28-6.

Maryland -7 (vs. Michigan State)

A second Big Ten game that has my attention includes Michigan’s opponent from last week, the Maryland Terrapins.

Maryland was on its way to winning last week before Tagovailoa got hurt and Maryland dropped a potential first down catch on the same play. The momentum changed and the Wolverines pulled out the victory.

This week, the Terrapins get Michigan State and it’s still-really-bad secondary. The Spartans won a few games before Washington completely exposed last year’s biggest deficiency and proved that the position group still is not fixed.

Expect the Maryland receivers to run free most of the afternoon. Michigan State doesn’t have the offensive firepower to keep up.

Prediction: Maryland scores early and often in a 38-27 win.

Duke -2.5 (vs. Virginia)

Virginia can’t score. Duke has played exceptionally well, even in a loss to a very good Kansas team last week.

Duke quarterback Riley Leonard has played exceptionally well this season but faces a vastly improved Virginia defensive front. I still expect the Blue Devils to move the ball through the air and on the ground as their 7.2 yards per play are good for 10th in the country.

Virginia’s offense stinks under first-year head coach Tony Elliott, averaging a putrid 4.7 yards per play this season. The Cavaliers didn’t figure it out against a below-average Syracuse defense and shouldn’t magically turn it around this week. It might be a close game, but getting the Blue Devils by less than a field goal is a wonderful value.

Prediction: The Blue Devils prove they’re legitimately good in a statement win, 27-20.

Georgia -28 (@ Missouri)

Outside of Ohio State, big favorites have not been kind to me this year. However, Missouri stinks. South Carolina isn’t great either (sigh) but the Bulldogs still easily dispatched the Gamecocks by 38.

That was even before the Stetson Bennett Heisman hype.

Missouri is coming off of an emotional, weird and wholly unimpressive “win” over Auburn and comes into this game a little banged up. Georgia should jump out to a huge lead (As it has against every team not named Kent State) but instead of coasting to victory, I expect the starters to stay in a bit longer in this one.

Georgia goes from Missouri to Auburn and Vanderbilt at home and shouldn’t really need to take it easy here. Expect the Bulldogs to continue throwing when up big and expect the Tigers to struggle to score.

Prediction: Another SEC road blowout for Georgia, 56-10.

P.S.: I cannot write about it because the line moved so substantially, but I hope the rest of you got LSU +1.5 as well.