By Will Helms
We’re reaching the conclusion of Week 9 and there’s money to be made on Monday Night Football in a very interesting matchup between the Saints and the Ravens.
Both teams have a few injuries at the skill positions but have schemes that make one-for-one swaps likely, even if our salaries do not reflect that.
We’ve got you covered on both FanDuel and DraftKings Monday night.
FanDuel
MVP Options
While it may seem obvious that Lamar Jackson is the guy to make your MVP, there are other options. Jackson ($17,000) should be on your roster, but if you’d rather make Alvin Kamara ($15,500) your MVP, that’s certainly a viable option. Kamara has put up 14 or more points in four straight weeks, capped by a 3-touchdown performance last week against the Raiders.
Now fully-healthy, Kamara is averaging 26 intended touches a game and nearly six yards per intended touch. The volume and production have been there all season, but the touchdowns eluded him until last week. Now that he’s found the end zone, I expect him to continue to score moving forward. As I type this out, I’m convincing myself to make Kamara MVP on at least a few of my teams.
Value Plays
I’m rolling with Isaiah Likely ($7500) in almost every lineup tonight. In terms of fantasy production, the Saints defense looks stout against tight ends, but let’s dig into the numbers.
Opposing tight ends simply aren’t seeing volume against the Saints. Over the last six games, the Saints have given up under 60 yards to tight ends each week, but aside from Foster Moreau, no tight end has seen more than five targets. Quarterbacks are completing around 70 percent of their passes to tight ends against the Saints, but with no touchdowns, the fantasy points are deflated.
Likely is averaging over seven yards a target this season and was targeted seven times last week. With Mark Andrews out, I’d expect him to be targeted 8-to-10 times against the Saints. That’s some great volume for a player priced similarly to players like Justice Hill ($7000) and under the kickers and defenses.
DraftKings
Captain Options
Here, I gave even more consideration to captaining Kamara ($17,100 as a captain). Captaining Kamara and rostering Jackson saves $500 versus the opposite and we benefit from a full PPR and yardage bonus structure here, something that has given Kamara an extra four points per game on DraftKings.
We still have plenty of money to play Jackson as well, so I’m mainly rolling with Kamara here, given the difference in salary.
Value Plays
I took a slightly different approach than normal for Monday’s game. Instead of paying way down for one or two players, I took more players in the middle tiers and faded our four medium-high salaries (Andy Dalton, Chris Olave, Kenyan Drake and Devin Duvernay). Accordingly, my pay downs include Justin Tucker ($4200) and Wil Lutz ($4000). Lutz is actually my cheapest option, a week after unsuccessfully playing a player at $1200.
Both teams have strong red zone defenses and give up a decent amount of yardage. Combined with the game being in the Superdome and both kickers having bionic legs, I really like playing them. We should get a combined 12-to-18 points from these two, perhaps more if the defenses force field goals.
I also gave some consideration to James Proche ($3800) and Tre’Quan Smith ($3400), though the latter is trending downwards with just one target last week.
Notes
On both sites, I put Kamara and Jackson in every lineup. If you’re making multiple lineups and want to do a weird one that leaves one of those two out, go for it. However, we’re not trying to gain an advantage with those two, we’re simply trying to keep pace.
I faded Andy Dalton in most lineups. After throwing two pick sixes against the Cardinals, he’s been more on the efficient than high-scoring. You can get similar value (Especially on DK) by starting the cheaper Olave instead.
I like where Kenyan Drake is positioned on FanDuel more than DraftKings, so I started him as a cheaper option there. In almost every lineup, I started Taysom Hill ($6400 on DK, $10,500 on FD) over the similarly-priced Duvernay ($6800 on DK, $11,000 on FD) not only to save money, but also because I think Hill is the better play.
