By Will Helms
It seems like we keep getting Denver in big spots this year, but here we are again. I’m here to help with a DFS helper for both DraftKings and FanDuel tonight and once again, I am heavily against the Broncos.
FanDuel
MVP Options
Our two biggest differences between our two DFS providers are pricing for captains/MVPs and the way receptions are scored. On FanDuel, we usually want to make our best player our MVP since there’s no uptick in price for doing so. Accordingly, I’m captaining Justin Herbert ($17,000) or Austin Ekeler ($15,500) in every lineup.
I just have no faith in anyone on the Denver offense to do anything substantial and until I’m proved wrong I’m fading most Bronco skill players. I’m not expecting a crazy 4 or 5-touchdown game from Herbert, but he will certainly outperform Russell Wilson.
Ekeler has been immaculate in the last two weeks, averaging nearly 32 fantasy points a game in that span. Interestingly, enough, his touches aren’t up.
Outside of his game against the Jaguars in which he was banged up, Ekeler has between 18 and 24 intended touches in every game, with two of the lower totals occuring in his last two games (20 in each game). However, he’s averaging 7.5 yards per intended touch in those games with five touchdowns.
I’ll leave it up to you which to start, but I’m heavier on Herbert in this one. I simply don’t think Ekeler’s production appropriately matches up with his volume the last two weeks (Leading to inflated numbers). I’m rostering him, but I prefer Herbert here, all things being equal.
Value Plays
The goal here is to afford both Herbert and Ekeler. To do that, we’ll have to save money elsewhere. I’m looking at a few guys to accomplish that goal.
I’m first looking at Latavius Murray ($8000) who was brought in to back up Melvin Gordon. The versatile back has succeeded for years with the Saints and could really bolster a Broncos rotation that has struggled. The Chargers give up a ton of points to backs and allow a lot of receptions. We’ll monitor his status before the game, but if he’s not really expected to play (he should be) we’ll go with Mike Boone ($7500) for the same reasons.
I’m starting one of the two in almost every lineup. Unfortunately, we’re not quite sure which should have a great game, only that one of them should play well.
I love the idea of playing a kicker here and Brandon McManus ($9000) is our guy. Dustin Hopkins ($9500) is coming off an injury and we’re not sure how healthy he actually is, so getting McManus for less is a great value.
Stacking two of those guys allows you to pay for both Ekeler and Herbert and have a decent amount left over.
Draft Kings
Captain Options
There are two thoughts here. DK gives us a half-point more per reception than FanDuel, meaning Ekeler ($17,100 as a captain) is averaging four extra points a game over his last two on the green site.
However, we also have to pay up for captain status and playing Herbert ($16,500 as captain) as king and simply rostering Ekeler ($11,400 as a standard starter) saves $200 over the other. I’m leaning into the PPR side of things and captaining Ekeler in most lineups, but there are certain lineup combinations only possible with Herbert ($11,000 as a standard starter) as captain.
Value Plays
DK loves to drop the price of certain players far below our average. If we captain Ekeler and play Herbert, we have an average of $5475 a player to use on the rest of our lineup (The opposite gives us $5525 a player) so we’ll need to save significantly to afford any of the nine rosterable players above that average.
Mike Boone ($4800) isn’t nearly the value here as he is on FanDuel, so I’m not playing him. Murray ($1600) is definitely playable and I’m starting him in a few lineups.
My favorite play here might be DeAndre Carter ($2600). Patrick Surtain is one of the few corners that shadows players and has given up just 9 catches in the last three weeks to Deebo Samuel, Davante Adams and Michael Pittman and hasn’t given up a touchdown all season.
That’s not great news for Mike Williams ($10,600) and should lead to opportunities for other receivers. Josh Palmer ($5800) could find some room but I prefer Carter at his miniscule price point here.
Playing these two, gives us flexibility to play our top two guys and still afford guys like Russell Wilson ($10,000) and Jerry Jeudy ($7000). Of course, our kicker play is still an option here as McManus is just $3800.
