By Scott Kacsmar
The Dallas Cowboys saw a promising 2022 season end much like the year before it: 12 wins and eliminated in the playoffs by the 49ers. Furthermore, it continued the streak of seasons without appearing in the NFC Championship Game, which Dallas has not done since the 1995 season.
The Cowboys still enter 2023 with high expectations as the sportsbook have pegged Dallas as the 3rd-best team in the conference, still in the shadows of the 49ers and division rival Eagles.
Along with Buffalo, Dallas was the only other team to finish 2022 ranked in the top 5 in scoring on offense and defense. This has the makings of an elite team in a weakened conference, but they must find a way to stop shooting themselves in the foot and get over the hump.
We look back at Dallas’ missed opportunities in 2022, the offseason changes including a big coordinator switch, their chances of surpassing the Eagles and 49ers, and what the best bets are to place on the Cowboys for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Forwards and Back Again
If opening night was any indication, the 2022 Cowboys were going to have a terrible season. Quarterback Dak Prescott looked awful in a 19-3 loss to Tampa Bay, and he left the game with a thumb injury. Fortunately, the Cowboys still had a run game and pass rush to rely on, and backup Cooper Rush was able to lead a pair of game-winning drives in close, low-scoring games to keep Dallas afloat at 4-1.
Unfortunately, Prescott was not able to return in time for the Week 6 clash with the Eagles on Sunday Night Football, and Rush was exposed by a better team as the Cowboys fell 26-17.
But Prescott returned in Week 7 against Detroit and the Cowboys would soon embark on one of the best scoring runs in team history. Dallas scored at least 27 points in 9 consecutive games, a new franchise record. The streak included a 40-3 thrashing of the Vikings in Minnesota, a 54-19 explosion against the Colts where Dallas scored 33 unanswered in the fourth quarter, and Prescott converted a third-and-30 pass in the fourth quarter on the way to a 40-34 win over the Eagles on Christmas Eve.
Part of the offensive success was Dallas finally unleashing Tony Pollard at running back instead of featuring veteran Ezekiel Elliott. Pollard added a new layer of explosiveness in rushing for 1,000 yards for the first time, and he averaged 9.5 yards per reception with 3 scores through the air.
Combine this high-scoring offense with a great pass rush led by All-Pro Micah Parsons (13.5 sacks), and the Cowboys looked like an elite team. The defense also did the unthinkable and led the league in takeaways (33) for the second year in a row under defensive coordinator Dan Quinn.
But not everything was a success. The Cowboys blew a 14-point lead in the fourth quarter in Green Bay against longtime nemesis Aaron Rodgers. The Cowboys also blew a 17-point second-half lead in Jacksonville with a deflected interception getting returned for a touchdown in overtime. The failed game management brought back bad memories of the inability of Mike McCarthy to win close games and of Dan Quinn’s defenses to close out games.
Interceptions, deflected or otherwise, became a huge problem for Dak, who threw 13 of his NFL-high 15 interceptions in the final 9 games of 2022. His interception rate (3.8%) was by far the highest of his career as his only other season where he was above 1.8% was 2017 (2.7%).
Also, the Cowboys played horribly in Week 18 against a weak Washington team, losing 26-6 in a game that looked far too like the bad performance in Week 1 against Tampa Bay. This limp into the playoffs had a lot of people afraid the Cowboys would blow a wild card game in Tampa Bay against an 8-9 team, but fortunately, Prescott played an incredible game and the defense forced Tom Brady into mistakes in the final game of his career. Dallas won 31-14, its first playoff win since the 2018 season.
This set up a rematch with the 49ers, who won in Dallas in the wild-card round the previous season. That game infamously ended with Prescott’s ill-advised quarterback draw without a timeout as the clock expired on Dallas. This time, it was another suspect play in the game’s final minute with Elliott lining up at center and getting blown up on the play.
But the disappointing 19-12 loss, which featured another pair of interceptions from Prescott, was actually a step back from the previous year where Dallas fought harder against the 49ers. This one wasted a solid job by the defense, which held Brock Purdy without a touchdown and limited Christian McCaffrey to 57 yards on 16 touches. But George Kittle (95 yards) exploded for some big catches over the middle, and the Cowboys never found the end zone after early in the second quarter. Pollard also left injured and was ineffective with 33 total yards.
The Cowboys must deliver more in 2023 to get over this hump of coming up short before the NFC Championship Game.
Offseason Review
The headline may be that the Cowboys released Ezekiel Elliott in March after 7 seasons with the team, but you cannot rule out the possibility of him returning at some point. Either way, the Cowboys should be in good hands with Pollard assuming that RB1 role in the offense.
The real headline is that Brian Schottenheimer replaces Kellen Moore as offensive coordinator, the first such change for Prescott and the offense since 2019. Schottenheimer was already a consultant for the team last season. His last coordinator job was with Seattle in 2018-20, a stretch that started with the Seahawks ranking No. 2 and No. 3 in rushing attempts.
The son of the late great Marty Schottenheimer, Brian definitely has a reputation for being about ball-control offense and running the football. But this is not necessarily a bad thing for Prescott, especially if it makes Pollard even more useful in the running game.
Under Schottenheimer in Seattle, Russell Wilson threw 106 touchdowns to 25 interceptions in 2018-20, and he still averaged 245.2 passing yards per game with a strong 107.2 passer rating in those seasons. Wilson put up the best numbers of his career with Schottenheimer.
As for the supporting cast, it is possible Prescott has a better group this season despite losing 2-of-3 top receivers from 2022. Michael Gallup looked slow after a major leg injury in 2021, so another offseason should have him back closer to the player he was before. But the Cowboys also acquired Brandin Cooks, a deep threat who should be thrilled to get back to a better offense (and quarterback) after wasting away in Houston.
Tight end is the one area the Cowboys may downgrade after losing Dalton Schultz to Houston. They will go with Jake Ferguson and rookie Luke Schoonmaker, a 2nd-round pick. But Schultz was never an irreplaceable target, and the Cowboys should be fine here as the youth gets experience.
The defense still has a chance to be one of the top units after the Cowboys traded for veteran corner Stephon Gilmore, who will start opposite ball magnet, Trevon Diggs. Parsons and DeMarcus Lawrence are getting some help up front with 1st-round nose tackle Mazi Smith, who should be a Week 1 starter.
The Cowboys also retained Quinn as coordinator, keeping the consistency there. But one last notable change that may be a welcome one in Dallas is at kicker. Brett Maher is gone after one of the most confounding seasons ever at kicker. He was excellent with a 29-of-32 success rate on field goals, including 9-of-11 from 50-plus yards. But Maher missed 4 straight extra points in the playoff game against Tampa Bay, then had a 5th extra point blocked against the 49ers the following week. It is the only time in NFL history that a kicker missed 4 straight extra points in one game.
Since kicker is such a mental position where one awful moment can give a player the yips and ruin his career, Dallas fans should probably be happy that Maher is not returning. But do not expect the new kicker, Brandon Aubrey from the USFL, to be as great as Maher was last regular season.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Overcoming Philly and San Francisco
The Cowboys have too many veteran coaches and talented players on both sides of the ball to completely fall off in 2023. This should still be one of the top teams, and the sportsbooks have consistently ranked Dallas third in the NFC behind only the Eagles and 49ers.
With the state of the NFC being what it is, and no more Tom Brady or Aaron Rodgers, you have to conclude that Dak Prescott is one of the top quarterbacks in the conference. It would hardly be unheard of for a player to have his career season in Year 8, which is right around the point where many greats were at their peak of their careers, including Peyton Manning and Tom Brady.
Given Prescott’s career interception rate and the way interceptions can wildly fluctuate year to year, you have to think he’ll have better turnover luck in 2023 after so many tipped balls last year. Alas, his defense also should finally regress with turnovers after leading the league in back-to-back years, but that defense is still great enough to be one of the top 10 units in the league in a variety of categories.
The Cowboys should again be balanced, both for the run and pass and on offense and defense. The question is can they leapfrog the Eagles in the division and maybe only have to beat one of Philadelphia or San Francisco in the playoffs instead of both?
Unfortunately, we never saw a Jalen Hurts vs. Dak Prescott game last year as the teams split the series with the wins coming against each other’s backup quarterback. Hopefully, we will get to see this matchup multiple times this season, because it could very well decide the NFC East, which has not had a repeat winner since 2004 (longest drought in NFL).
The Cowboys have to play in San Francisco in Week 5 on Sunday Night Football, so that will be another big opportunity to show they can beat this team. This also will give the Cowboys game tape to study and improve from for a potential playoff rematch, something the team did not have the luxury of in 2021 or 2022 as the only times they met were in the playoffs.
Dallas again has to play in Philly first before hosting the Eagles in prime time in Week 14, but if the team is peaking at the right time later in the year, then they could get a big win there to set themselves up for a deeper playoff run.
Best Bets for the 2023 Cowboys
If the Cowboys had not blown leads of 14 and 17 points last year, they could have been 14-3 just like the Eagles. But even if you still have trust issues with McCarthy and his staff, you have to like the talent to get over 9.5 wins in such an unimpressive conference.
Prescott has been dominant in his career against the Giants (10-2 with 10 straight wins) and Commanders (9-2). He gets the Jets in Aaron Rodgers’ first road start (Week 2). After a winnable road game in Carolina on November 19, the Cowboys will not have to play another road game until December 17 in Buffalo, nearly a full month without travel.
That is why our favorite bets for the Cowboys are going over 9.5 wins and making the playoffs, quite possibly as the top wild-card team again.
As for a third bet you should strongly consider, why not Dallas to represent the NFC in the Super Bowl? End the streak of not getting there since 1995. It is so hard to repeat in the NFC as only the 2013-14 Seahawks have gone to back-to-back Super Bowls in the NFC in the last 25 years. The 49ers also have an odd quarterback situation with Brock Purdy coming off a serious injury and major questions of whether he or Trey Lance (unproven) are the real deal or not.
The NFC absolutely loves a “that one year everything clicked” kind of team, and after seeing the Eagles (2022) and 49ers (2019-22) blow some chances at recent Super Bowl rings, maybe this is finally the year Dallas gets another crack at a Lombardi Trophy.
NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys over 9.5 wins (-154 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys to make playoffs (-225 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Dallas Cowboys to win NFC (+650 at DraftKings)
