By Will Helms
We’ve nearly made it, as the first games of the official week one of college football kicks off Thursday night, with games every day between then and Monday. And while many Top 25 teams open with greatly inferior competition, there are still some favorites I have on upset alert this weekend.
Here, I’ll break down a few of the games. If you feel bold, feel free to sprinkle a few of these moneyline underdogs into your weekly betting. Or, if you want to be safe, take the points and profit.
Virginia Tech (@ Old Dominion)
When I saw the matchups, I circled this one as an immediate betting advantage. There was simply no way Vegas would put the line small enough for me to avoid it. I was actually impressed when the Hokies opened as only 10-point favorites, a line that quickly shrunk to 7 and then bounced back to 7.5.
It seems like a weird spot, Old Dominion hosting one of its biggest games ever against a team it was upset recently. However, Virginia Tech has not fared well in openers away from Blacksburg. In their last three away openers, Virginia Tech is 1-2, only beating a bad Duke team for the lone win. Old Dominion has upset the Hokies before, but the start to the Brent Pry era has not been inspiring.
Virginia Tech has questions at quarterback, running back and receiver and the back seven on the defense is a concern. Old Dominion is 20th in SP+ returning production and finished last season on a 5-1 stretch, despite some bad turnover luck.
Virginia Tech has a lot of question marks. Sure, the Hokies could come out and surprise, but my money is on the upset.
No. 13 NC State (@ East Carolina)
My wife, an NC State alum, is upset at me for including the Wolfpack in this, but it’s a perfect scenario for those looking for an upset. I love the Wolfpack in the ACC, but East Carolina does not play in the ACC.
In a really strange schedule, NC State goes from ECU to FCS Charleston Southern then Connecticut and Texas Tech before opening the conference season at Clemson. The Wolfpack are all in for an ACC Championship this year, a campaign that will not start until October. Until then, the Wolfpack should be on upset alert nearly every week.
The expectations are as high as they’ve ever been in Raleigh and it’s not hard to find a scenario in which the team faces a letdown. Devin Leary is one of the top quarterbacks in football, but the Pack will replace first-round left tackle Ikem Ekwonu (Not Leary’s blindside) and some top receivers.
NC State is the more talented team, but Dowdy-Ficklen may be the toughest place in all of the Group of Five to play. The Pirates have never had issues getting up for big games and have high expectations themselves.
It would be very NC State of NC State to lose this game, so I have ECU as one of the top plays among double-digit dogs.
Boston College (vs. Rutgers)
Rutgers is a 7-point road underdog to a mysterious Boston College team. The Golden Eagles have the advantage at quarterback and receiver, but Greg Schiano’s crew has overachieved early in the last few seasons.
This year, the Scarlet Knights have higher expectations than they’ve had in years. Most sportsbooks have Rutgers at 4 or 4.5 wins on the season and week one is a great opportunity to get off on the right foot.
Boston College’s run defense was poor last season and Rutgers will try to exploit that Saturday. I’m not fully sold on Boston College quarterback Phil Jurkovec being anything more than slightly above average this season and the Golden Eagles don’t have much of a rushing attack.
I expect Rutgers to play possession football and keep this a low-scoring game, pulling out some sort of 24-21 victory.
FCS over FBS Upsets
To bring this upset special full circle, I’ve identified two FBS teams that should be on upset alert against FCS teams, and one may surprise you.
South Dakota State goes on the road to play Iowa. You won’t find a line on this one (Because books don’t like trying to make FCS-FBS lines) but it really wouldn’t be that large. The Jackrabbits are one of the top FCS teams and have a good deal of depth. Usually, we think of FBS schools having the size and strength advantage in these matchups, but the Jackrabbits have plenty of both. If I could bet this one, I’m probably taking South Dakota State straight up.
I’m officially putting No. 7 Texas A&M on the upset watch against Sam Houston State. In their final year at the FCS level, the Bearkats are ineligible for an FCS championship, so this is a bowl game of sorts. Both the offense and defense were elite last year, even with some of the worst turnover luck you’ll see (15 forced fumbles led to three recoveries).
A&M has temporarily settled its quarterback battle, but if Haynes King doesn’t light it up in the first half, Max Johnson could see action. It’ll be closer than people think and there’s at least a chance Sam Houston State pulls off an improbable upset.
