By Scott Kacsmar
The Cleveland Browns had another disappointing season with a 7-10 finish that put them last in the AFC North. But with the hope that quarterback Deshaun Watson will perform much better, the Browns could start to think about a possible return to the playoffs under coach Kevin Stefanski.
The Bengals and Ravens are still favoured over Cleveland to win the division title, but crazier things have happened before. No one has won the AFC North three years in a row before, and that is what Cincinnati is trying to do.
The Browns do have an over/under of 9.5 wins at many sportsbooks, which is a very high figure for a third only pegged to be third in its division. But the Browns must also contend with a Pittsburgh team that Cleveland has not finished ahead of in any season since doing so in 1989.
We look back at the disappointment in 2022, the key offseason changes, where Watson fits among AFC quarterbacks, and the best Browns bets for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: Shaky Start to the Watson Era
The 2022 Browns left behind a difficult season to parse. When you see a 4-7 record with Jacoby Brissett at quarterback and a 3-3 record with Deshaun Watson, one might conclude that the team would have fared better with its intended starting quarterback not missing games for a suspension.
However, Brissett played significantly better than Watson, and the stats will back that up. Brissett’s 60.0 QBR ranked No. 8 in the NFL as it was the best he has ever played in his career. Watson’s 38.3 QBR would have ranked No. 27 in the league if he had enough attempts to qualify. He had a very poor season and only finished 3-3 thanks to the defence playing lights out in his wins.
The Browns had some shaky performances early on that cost them dearly for the playoff race. Cleveland blew a 13-point lead in shocking fashion against the Jets, a game they would have won had Nick Chubb not scored a late touchdown and just went down to run out the clock. Cleveland also lost 30-28 to the Chargers after missing a 53-yard field goal in the final seconds. The Browns also cost themselves in a 23-20 loss to the Ravens after a false start led to a 60-yard field goal getting blocked at the 2-minute warning.
But even in the wins Cleveland had last year, a pattern sticks out in that the team only beat quarterbacks having a rough season save for Joe Burrow, and they also caught a lot of teams with a key player out:
- Week 1 at Carolina: Baker Mayfield was later benched and cut by the team.
- Week 3 vs. Pittsburgh: Mitch Trubisky was later benched for Kenny Pickett and T.J. Watt missed this game.
- Week 8 vs. Cincinnati: Good job beating Burrow again, but it did not help that No. 1 wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was out.
- Week 12 vs. Tampa Bay: Tom Brady had the worst season of his career for a team that finished 8-9.
- Week 13 at Houston: The Browns were able to win without scoring an offensive touchdown because the Texans started backup quarterback Kyle Allen, who is even worse than Davis Mills.
- Week 15 vs. Baltimore: Another win over a playoff team, but it helps that Lamar Jackson was out, Tyler Huntley started, and the Ravens played their worst game of the season with Justin Tucker even missing a pair of field goals.
- Week 17 at Washington: The Commanders made the mistake of allowing Carson Wentz to start another game and he answered with 3 interceptions in a 24-10 loss.
It was disappointing that Cleveland could not take advantage of a schedule with so many benched, backups, and washed quarterbacks. Not to mention the below-average offensive and defensive units in a year where running back Nick Chubb had a career-high 1,525 rushing yards and Myles Garrett tied his career high with 16 sacks.
This team could be something with a legitimate quarterback. It paid for one in 2022, but that player did not deliver at all.
Offseason Review
The Browns are bringing back the core of their offence and the coaching staff for that side of the ball. Defence is where the bigger changes should take place as Joe Woods has been replaced as defensive coordinator by Jim Schwartz.
Schwartz, an old pal of Jeff Fisher, should bring more of a physical, attacking style of defence to the Browns. While Garrett was great last year, he had 16-of-34 sacks for the team, almost 50% of the output. Jadeveon Clowney was a disappointment, seeing his quarterback hits drop from 19 in 2021 to just 4 last year.
The Browns traded with Minnesota for edge rusher Za’Darius Smith, who had 10 sacks in a Pro Bowl season last year. Smith has had double-digit sacks in his last three non-injury seasons. This should be a welcome addition to the pass rush and give Garrett his best sidekick yet in Cleveland. Cleveland also may have found a run stopper in defensive tackle Dalvin Tomlinson. The secondary will continue relying on recent draft picks, and the Browns added former Kansas City safety Juan Thornhill, who has big-game experience against the likes of the Bengals, Bills, and Ravens.
The offence is breaking up the backfield duo of Nick Chubb and Kareem Hunt as the latter is a free agent. But Hunt only had 678 yards from scrimmage last year. He will be replaceable, and Chubb remains one of the best backs in the NFL.
The receiving corps was largely just a trio of players producing for the offence. No. 1 receiver Amari Cooper was solid in his first year with the Browns with 1,160 yards and 9 touchdowns. Donovan Peoples-Jones did a good job with more opportunities and had a career-high 839 yards. Tight end David Njoku had arguably his best season with 44.9 yards per game, his first season averaging over 40.0 yards.
The Browns could be better with their receiving weapons this year. That leading trio returns and the team traded for Elijah Moore from the Jets. He never put it all together there, but Moore has 984 yards and 6 touchdowns since 2021. The Browns also drafted Tennessee wide receiver Cedric Tillman with the No. 74 pick in the third round, their highest pick in the 2023 draft. Tillman brings size (6’3”) to the table, and he may have been a higher draft pick if not for injury in 2022.
A better defensive front coached by a veteran of the game. A deeper receiver room. A quarterback who hopefully put in the work this offseason and can get back to past success. This is how Cleveland plans to improve in 2023, and the logic checks out.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Where Does Deshaun Watson Stack Up in 2023 AFC Quarterback Field?
Let’s go back to January 12, 2020. Deshaun Watson, fresh off his first playoff win for Houston over Josh Allen’s Bills, went into Kansas City in the divisional round. The Texans jumped out to a shocking 24-0 lead. With Andrew Luck retired in Indianapolis, Watson was looking like the new king in the AFC South and the worthy rival to Patrick Mahomes for years to come.
But after a 51-point avalanche, Watson’s Texans ended up getting smoked by 20 points. Everything has been downhill ever since for Watson, who would finish 4-12 as a starter in 2020 despite some gaudy statistics. Watson already was quoted as wanting out of Houston, and this was before any headlines with allegations of sexual misconduct.
After more than two dozen women came forward to expose a pattern of predatory behaviour during massages, Watson never played in the 2021 season. He was traded to Cleveland in March 2022 and given a record-setting contract to the tune of $230 million, fully guaranteed, over five years.
This happened despite the NFL suspending Watson for 11 games to start the 2022 season. By the time Watson made his return to the field, in a game against Houston of all teams, a lot has changed at the position since 2020, especially in the AFC.
- Mahomes has continued his ascension to being the best player in the league and is possibly on track to be the best to ever play quarterback.
- Josh Allen had a breakout season in Buffalo in 2020, and he has turned into an elite, dual-threat quarterback who is in the MVP race on a team that is still one of the favourites for the Super Bowl.
- Joe Burrow has been a worthy No. 1 pick by the Bengals in 2020, and he has already been to a Super Bowl and back-to-back AFC Championship Games.
- Justin Herbert has been a prolific quarterback for the Chargers since being drafted in 2020. He is the first quarterback in NFL history to throw 30 touchdown passes in each of his first two seasons.
- Tua Tagovailoa was also part of that 2020 quarterback class, and he had a breakout year in Miami last season thanks to Mike McDaniel’s offence and the addition of Tyreek Hill providing the team with the fastest wideout duo in the league.
- Trevor Lawrence, the No. 1 overall pick in 2021, maybe the new king of the AFC South after having a breakout year and winning his first playoff game last year. If Lawrence falters, then C.J. Stroud (Texans) and Anthony Richardson (Colts) are the latest top draft picks to compete for control of the AFC South.
- Russell Wilson has joined the AFC in Denver, and he will hope to get back on track with Sean Payton as his new head coach after Nathaniel Hackett was a disaster last year.
- Aaron Rodgers is also in the AFC now, hoping to bring legitimacy to the quarterback position that has held the Jets back for decades.
Rookies aside, that is eight quarterbacks (half the AFC) who can easily be better than Watson in Cleveland this year. Only seven teams make the playoffs. Also, it is not impossible for Kenny Pickett to excel in Year 2 for Pittsburgh, or for Jimmy Garoppolo to enjoy playing for Josh McDaniels again and with the talent of Josh Jacobs and Davant Adams in Las Vegas.
But even if we predict Wilson to disappoint again in Denver, this list did not include Lamar Jackson in Baltimore, who was 2-0 against Watson’s Texans in 2019-20, winning those games by a combined score of 74-23. Jackson has been injured in December the last two seasons, but he is looking to get back on MVP track and have a great year in 2023 after finally getting his contract extension and more weapons.
Since blowing a 24-0 lead in Kansas City, Watson has gone from the guy who could rival Mahomes to a bottom-half quarterback in the AFC. If he plays like he did last year, he is in the bottom quarter.
Watson is old news, and when he is making headlines at all these days, it usually is bad news like when he recently blamed the media for the narrative about him. Cleveland better hope Watson has learned from his mistakes on the field last year, because he clearly has not learned anything or shown remorse over his actions off the field.
When Watson returned to face Houston last year, he failed to lead the offense to a single touchdown drive. The Browns only won because they scored three return touchdowns. But after more than a year away from the field, and the nerves of returning to Houston in this hostile, publicized spot, it is understandable why Watson would be rusty and not play well.
But this continued week after week for Watson in 2022. He led the offense to three touchdown drives in his first four starts. Brissett had that many touchdown drives in his last start against Tampa Bay. It took Watson six starts to lead eight touchdown drives. Brissett only needed three games to have nine touchdown drives under his belt at the start of the season.
“The past is a ghost, the future a dream, and all we ever have is now,” said a famous comedian before his life turned into a disgrace.
That is a quote from Bill Cosby. We can forget talking about the past of Watson challenging Mahomes in the AFC, or the dream that he can ever get back to that level. The reality of Watson’s present is we need to see if he can outscore Kenny Pickett or play better in Stefanski’s offense than Brissett did.
Best Bets for the 2023 Browns
If the Browns were in a division like the AFC South, NFC South, or NFC North, then we might be talking about a division title. But in the AFC North, they are already looking up at the Bengals and Ravens. You might as well throw the Steelers in there too, because again, you must go back to the 1989 season to find the last time the Browns finished ahead of the Steelers in the division. Back to the Future Part III wasn’t even released in theaters yet.
It is simply not likely for Cleveland to get a 1-1 split with every AFC North team again this year, unless you expect them to draw each foe at home in games that T.J. Watt, Ja’Marr Chase, and Lamar Jackson will all miss with injuries like in 2022.
Cleveland has a good enough roster to improve on last year’s 7-10 finish, because there will be winnable games against the likes of Arizona, Houston, Indianapolis, Chicago, and the Rams. But as we laid out above, Watson has not been a big-time quarterback for years now. You should trust that the quarterbacks like Burrow, Jackson, Rodgers, and even Wilson will get the job done against the Browns this year.
Cleveland could challenge for a winning record, but there are too many quality quarterbacks and contenders in the AFC to think this is a team with double-digit wins and a playoff berth. Besides, the Browns have gone 15 straight years finishing third or fourth in a division, tied for the second-longest streak since the merger and the longest streak in the 32-team era.
Count on it to continue this year. Our best bets are for the Browns to finish with single-digit wins and to miss the playoffs again.
NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns under 9.5 wins (-134 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Cleveland Browns to miss playoffs (-138 at FanDuel)
