By Scott Kacsmar
The Cincinnati Bengals are on a short list of top Super Bowl contenders this season. Depending on which sportsbook you look at, you will find the Bengals no worse than the No. 5 contender, and you could find them tied for the third-highest odds at +1000.
Why not the Bengals? They join their rival Chiefs as the only teams in the last two seasons to go to back-to-back title games and a Super Bowl appearance. But a pair of 23-20 playoff losses have kept the trophy case empty as the Bengals hunt for that elusive championship.
The Bengals have come so close to finishing the job, but a new year presents new challenges, including what should be a tougher division race, and the AFC has loaded up with Aaron Rodgers joining the Jets, Sean Payton going to coach Denver, and you never know when a team like Jacksonville or Miami takes a big step forward in Year 2 after making the playoffs with their new coach in 2022.
A calf strain for quarterback Joe Burrow in training camp is already causing some line shifting as you can find the Bengals with an over/under of 10.5 wins now, down from 11.5 at many sportsbooks.
We look at where the Bengals came up short again in 2022, the key offseason changes, the team’s place in this AFC, and what the best Bengals bets are for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: 23-20, The Sequel
The Bengals were no strangers to drama last season. Their Week 1 loss to Pittsburgh was one of the toughest season-opening losses any team could ever have. Joe Burrow was providing a portrait for “Super Bowl Hangover” with 5 turnovers and 7 sacks, but the Bengals still should have won the game if only they could have executed a simple, short kick given two tries.
But when the emergency long snapper comes into the game, things can go awry. The Bengals botched an extra point that was blocked that would have won the game in regulation, then missed a 29-yard field goal that would have won the game in overtime.
To make matters worse, the Bengals lost 20-17 in Dallas, which started Cooper Rush in place of Dak Prescott. The Bengals were 0-2 against Mitch Trubisky and Cooper Rush, and Burrow had already taken 13 sacks despite efforts to improve the offensive line. The season was breaking down quickly.
But the Bengals got back to .500 after beating the Dolphins in a Thursday night game that had a scary incident when Miami quarterback Tua Tagovailoa suffered a concussion and was taken to the local hospital. Tagovailoa had just suffered a similar injury 4 days earlier in a game against Buffalo. The way this was handled (or mishandled) led to the NFL implementing a new concussion protocol for all teams.
The Bengals then lost a matchup to the Ravens with Lamar Jackson leading a game-winning drive, dropping the Bengals to 2-3. This would give Baltimore the AFC North lead, which they would hang onto until Week 15 after Jackson suffered a season-ending injury.
Wide receiver Ja’Marr Chase was injured and missed the Cleveland game, which was another loss for the Bengals to drop them to 4-4. But that is where the team turned things around and did not lose the rest of the regular season. Chase returned in time for the showdown with the Chiefs in Week 13, and the Bengals once again closed out the Chiefs in the fourth quarter for a 3-point win, improving to 3-0 against Kansas City in the last 12 months.
The team was thriving at 11-4 as the close losses early in the season were turning into close wins after the Bengals forced a fumble on 1st-and-goal in New England to avoid blowing a 22-0 lead. This set up a huge game with the Bills in Week 17, the first NFL matchup between Burrow and Josh Allen. The No. 1 seed was still up for grabs, and this was a very anticipated game on Monday night.
The Bengals struck first with a touchdown, then were driving again on their second possession before the football world stopped after safety Damar Hamlin made a routine tackle against wide receiver Tee Higgins. But Hamlin collapsed and needed to be resuscitated on the field. The players looked on in horror as for the second time this season, a player was transported via ambulance to the local hospital. The paramedics saved Hamlin’s life, but the game was canceled, and the logistics made it impossible to reschedule.
The Bengals and Bills were going to finish with 16 games while everyone else had 17. The AFC North was still technically not clinched, but the Bengals took care of that in Week 18 with a 27-16 win over the Ravens, who were starting a third-string rookie quarterback with Jackson injured.
The teams met a week later in the wild-card round, but this time it was Tyler Huntley at quarterback. Still, the game was tied in the fourth quarter with Baltimore driving. But a failed quarterback sneak at the goal line was fumbled, and Sam Hubbard returned it 98 yards for the game-winning touchdown, the longest playoff fumble return touchdown in NFL history.
After surviving that scare, the Bengals went into Buffalo with a chip on their shoulder, knowing they looked like they had a good shot of beating the Bills in that canceled game, which would have helped them to have a home-field advantage over Buffalo in any playoff meeting. But the NFL never made any contingencies to accommodate the Bengals’ record in regards to the Bills and Chiefs.
The Bengals came out on fire, and they never gave Buffalo much of a chance in the snow. It was the best offensive performance in the playoffs in the Burrow era as the Bengals won 27-10.
This set up another AFC Championship Game rematch in Kansas City. While there was a lot of chatter before the game about the Bengals owning the Chiefs in the Burrow era, the fact is every game had been decided by 3 points and could have gone either way, especially since the Bengals trailed by at least 7 points in the second half of each game.
Cincinnati was initially a road favorite thanks to Patrick Mahomes suffering a high-ankle sprain in the divisional round, but by kickoff, the Chiefs were a 1.5-point home favorite again. Still, we knew it would be a tight game again with the Bengals seemingly having the right stuff to pull this off again as they were on a 10-game winning streak.
The Chiefs were swinging early with 4 quick sacks of Burrow. But the Bengals clawed their way back and it was tied at 20 in the fourth quarter. But Chris Jones delivered the biggest sack of his career on a third down against Burrow, helping Mahomes get the ball back with 30 seconds left. He scrambled on a play that would have set up a 60-yard field goal for the Chiefs, but the Bengals made the huge mistake of shoving him out of bounds at the end of the play. That 15-yard penalty on Joseph Ossai made it a 45-yard field goal attempt for the Chiefs, and they made it for a 23-20 win to go on to win their second Super Bowl under Mahomes.
But it no doubt solidified Bengals-Chiefs as the premiere rivalry in the NFL right now.
Offseason Review
The Bengals have kept their coordinators and Burrow will again have arguably the best wide receiver trio in the league. But one unit continues to stand out for this team.
The offensive line has been a scapegoat in Cincinnati for a few years now. The team tried to improve it last year by signing tackle La’el Collins, guard Alex Cappa, center Ted Karras, and drafting guard Cordell Volson in the fourth round. While the results varied, the line also lost 60% of its starters late in the season to injury, which is bad news for any team. This was exposed a bit in the Kansas City loss.
But Cincinnati’s offseason plan to improve in 2023 is largely built on one interesting player: Orlando Brown Jr. The left tackle spent the last two years in Kansas City after spending his first three seasons in Baltimore where he played both tackle positions. Brown has been a starter for two MVP seasons from Lamar Jackson and Patrick Mahomes. He will be the best-left tackle Burrow has played with.
Adding an improvement at left tackle while weakening your main rival sounds like a win-win, but why is Brown this frequently available when he is supposedly such a great player at a position that is highly valued and coveted in the NFL? The Ravens and Chiefs are not incompetent franchises either.
Brown’s career is in fact unique. He is the NFL’s only player since the 1970 merger to play for three different teams in his first six seasons while making at least four Pro Bowls.
But make no mistake, Brown is not Anthony Munoz, Jonathan Ogden, or Willie Roaf – three past greats who played the position for the Bengals, Ravens, and Chiefs. Also, we should point out that when Brown joined the Chiefs in 2021, Mahomes easily had the worst season of his career. There is no guarantee this move leads to a career year for Burrow or elevates the offense to a higher level than 2021-22.
When you set aside the offensive line, the rest of the Cincinnati roster is in arguably no better shape than it was in 2022.
There is a shake-up in the secondary. Safeties Vonn Bell and Jessie Bates have moved to other teams. Corner Eli Apple is also gone, though he will not be missed. However, the signings of safety Nick Scott (Rams) and corner Sidney Jones (Raiders) are not encouraging either based on the way those players covered in 2022. Dax Hill is very inexperienced at safety after barely playing last year despite being a first-round pick.
The Bengals drafted defensive end Myles Murphy in this year’s first round, though he is more of a long-term pick and will play behind Sam Hubbard and Trey Hendrickson. One of those pass rushers will likely have to get injured to see Murphy play a significant role this year.
On offense, the tight end remains unfulfilled as Hayden Hurst is being replaced with Irv Smith Jr. from the Vikings. That’s one disappointing player replacing another. The wide receiver trio will have to carry the load again. The Bengals also lost Samaje Perine, who made a lot of timely plays as a third-down back in the last few years.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Where Does Cincinnati Fit in This AFC?
In 2021, the AFC came down to the Chiefs, Bengals, and Bills. In 2022, it was the same trio of teams. The oddsmakers again like this trio in 2023, and these teams will all face each other in pivotal matchups in November and December.
This is great for creating new rivalries and a paradigm for the AFC for years to come. We had something similar 20 years ago with the Patriots being the team to beat, but the Colts with Peyton Manning and some very talented Pittsburgh teams also won a championship or two.
The Bengals and Bills hope to make the Chiefs share the wealth and prevent them from having a dynastic run here. It seems like many are putting the Bengals ahead of Buffalo as Kansas City’s main competitor. Even during the Quarterback series on Netflix, we heard Mahomes say that he thinks his team matches up better with Buffalo, but he wanted to play the Bengals in the title game just to shut them up after losing three straight to them by a combined 9 points. Still, that candid insight suggested Mahomes knows the Bengals are not an ideal matchup for his team.
Without question, the Bengals play Kansas City very well. They also might have a great feel for playing the Bills, but we need to see more matchups first. But are the Bengals going to be like the 2000s Colts or 2000s Steelers, or did they already blow their best chances at championships these last two years?
Any day now, Burrow will get a contract extension that will be the richest in history. There are already questions about how they will keep him and his wide receivers together for the long term. Someone like Tee Higgins could be a classic overpay for a WR2 for a desperate team wanting to make him their WR1. This is Year 4 for Burrow and coach Zac Taylor, and no team has ever won its first championship starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five seasons, so that is something to monitor this year and the next.
Windows can be tiny in this league, and while we talk up the Chiefs-Bengals-Bills as the trio to beat in the new AFC, you never know when someone like Jacksonville, Miami, or the Jets with Rodgers can be a major contender in the next few years.
The Bengals also have to worry about the Ravens in the AFC North, who have more weapons than ever for Lamar Jackson, arguably a better defense than Cincinnati, and a new offensive coordinator. Remember, the Ravens were leading the AFC North the last two Decembers on the day Jackson was injured and did not play the rest of the season. Only after Jackson’s injuries did the Bengals go on to win their division titles.
While Burrow shredded a downtrodden Baltimore defense in 2021, the Ravens kept him under 220 yards in all three meetings last season. Burrow averaged just 5.9 yards per pass attempt against the 2022 Ravens. Imagine how different things could have been if Huntley scored a touchdown on that quarterback sneak instead of fumbling it for a game-deciding touchdown in the wild-card round.
That was a reason why our 2022 recap for the Bengals was longer than the recaps for most teams, because a lot of their pivotal games that had close finishes could have gone either way.
This is not uncommon for contenders, but the fact that the Bengals have been on the wrong side of a 23-20 loss in a championship game the last two years suggests this team may not be the best choice in this AFC race.
While Burrow has already drawn a lot of comparisons to Tom Brady and Joe Montana for being “Joe Cool” or “Joe Brrr” in the clutch, it really is unfounded and too soon for any of that. Do you know what Brady would have done in Burrow’s shoes in the last two years? He would have set up his kicker for a field goal attempt from 45-plus yards away against the Rams and Chiefs. Burrow could not even get into range either time.
In 7 playoff starts, Burrow has always led the Bengals to 19-to-27 points. That is a solid floor but a limited ceiling. He has not thrown a touchdown pass in the fourth quarter of any playoff game yet.
You can pick up patterns on teams when they lose. Someone like Justin Herbert on the Chargers needs a defense that can stop creating shootouts and not blow as many leads. With the Chiefs, it basically comes down to beating them in the fourth quarter and not giving Mahomes the ball back.
But with the Bengals, this team has lost 13 games since 2021 (playoffs included). Let’s exclude the season finale in 2021 when they rested Burrow and the starters in a loss to Cleveland. That leaves a dozen games.
In those 12 losses, the Bengals failed to score more than 23 points in all but one of them (34-31 loss to Mike White and the 2021 Jets). This team is not losing shootouts. When they lose, the offense is held down to a below-average scoring output.
This is where the sacks on Burrow come into play. In his last 31 games, Burrow is 21-1 when he takes fewer than 5 sacks and 1-8 when he takes 5-plus sacks.
Finally, a whopping 9-of-12 losses have been by no more than 3 points, so losing very close is something this team knows well. Cincinnati’s 8 losses by exactly 3 points since 2021 is easily the most in the NFL in that time. The Chargers (6) are the only other team with more than 4 such losses.
A badly timed sack – let’s say on third down in the final minute of a tied game – can be crippling to a team in a close game against a good opponent. This type of play is something the Bengals have been more susceptible to as Burrow’s sack totals against teams with elite rushers are troubling. Burrow has 11 games since 2021 with 5-plus sacks taken. No other quarterback has more than 6 such games.
Peyton Manning (4) and Tom Brady (10) had 14 combined games in their whole careers where they took at least 5 sacks. Burrow already has 13 such games since 2020.
Unlike a decade ago when the Bengals were making the playoffs and losing immediately with Marvin Lewis and Andy Dalton, this team feels like a more legitimate contender. But with the limitations of the offense’s scoring in big games, and so many of their games coming down to a key turnover or stop, it is probably easier to bet against the Bengals surviving a 3 or 4-game playoff run of 1-score game than it would be for the Chiefs or Bills.
We know the Chiefs have that extra scoring gear with Mahomes able to go on a run, and while Buffalo did not end 2022 well by any means, be careful about assuming the Bengals are going to always have the upper hand in that matchup. Maybe next postseason is the one where Von Miller is available, and the pass rush finds traction to take Burrow down several times.
That is the most proven way to beat these Bengals.
Best Bets for the 2023 Bengals
We basically just laid out that the Bengals are not in a great position to secure a No. 1 seed or easily claim the AFC North this year. Baltimore is going to have a great shot to reclaim a division that has never been won three years in a row by the same team since 2002.
The Burrow calf strain is concerning, but so far, there is no indication he will miss Week 1. But if his mobility is limited, then the Browns and Ravens are a tough combo of opponents to start the year. The Bengals also have trips to the 49ers, Jaguars, and Chiefs this season.
The schedule is not going to be an easy one, but the Bengals have enough talent and a reliable passing game to make the playoffs again. They should also be able to clear the over 10.5 wins, but any sportsbook still offering over 11.5 may be pushing it this year.
NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals over 10.5 wins (-145 at BetMGM)
NFL Pick: Cincinnati Bengals to make playoffs (-250 at BetRivers)
