Villarreal v Liverpool (agg: 0-2)
Using Inter, rather than Benfica, as the better comparison given they also play in one of Europe’s ‘big four’ leagues, Villarreal are significantly longer than Simone Inzaghi’s team were (12/5) to win the home leg of their last-16 tie.
Given the Yellow Submarine have to go for it and Liverpool can afford to draw or narrowly lose, for once it’s worth opposing Jurgen Klopp’s side – at least to some degree.
Villarreal are unbeaten in 12 home games stretching back to November, beating Bayern Munich and drawing with Juventus at El Madrigal on their way to the last four.
In that sequence they have also drawn league matches with both Madrid clubs and an Athletic Bilbao team currently a place and a point below them in the La Liga table. The DRAW is what I am advising here at a standout price of 13/4.
Liverpool’s incredible form means it’s difficult to make the case for Unai Emery’s men to turn them over, whatever the circumstances of the match.
The Spaniards can be backed at a best price of 4/1 with the 14/5 about Villarreal draw no bet also tempting. Not tempting enough, though.
Another selection I like is the 8/11 about BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE.
Game state really plays into this bet given that Villarreal must score twice to have any chance of qualification.
Liverpool’s recent record in these knockout ties adds to the notion that their usually watertight defense may be breached when their opponent is throwing the kitchen sink at them.
Klopp refused to criticize his team after the 3-3 draw with Benfica in the last round, instead saying it was “normal” for players to become complacent and lose concentration when qualification was virtually guaranteed.
It’s not difficult to make a case for Liverpool to find the net, but just for the record they have scored in 53 of 56 games in all competitions this season.
Finishing with a longshot, I wouldn’t sleep without including RAUL ALBIOL TO SCORE ANYTIME to small stakes after it leapt out at an eye-watering 40/1.
Albiol may only have one goal to his name this season but after a quiet start in terms of attacking involvement, he has registered an attempt in five of Villarreal’s past nine home league games.
His price is an outlier compared to his team-mates, with both Albiol and Juan Foyth at 2/1 and 11/2 to have a shot and a shot on target respectively, yet Foyth is 28/1 to score for the first since October 2020.
Villarreal v Liverpool best bets and score prediction
- 2pts Both teams to score at 8/11
- 1pt Draw at 13/4
- 0.5pt Raul Albiol to score at 40/1
Score prediction: Villarreal 1-1 Liverpool (+700)
Real Madrid vs. Manchester City (agg: 3-4)
Manchester City’s 4-3 win in the opening leg of this tie was quickly labeled by swathes of the media as one of the greatest matches in Champions League history.
That kind of hyperbole is often rife in the immediate aftermath of a good game. In reality it was hugely one-sided, with Real Madrid needing an incredible amount of fortune to go into the second leg only one goal down.
Karim Benzema, who has been nothing short of phenomenal this season, scored against the run of the play after City swept into an early lead before John Stones – already playing as makeshift right-back – limped off injured.
After Pep Guardiola’s side re-established a two-goal lead, Vinicius Junior exploited the use of emergency right-back Fernandinho to race past him and score. At 4-2 it looked as though City would finally keep, or even extend, the significant advantage they deserved. Instead Aymeric Laporte inexplicably handballed in the box to allow Benzema to panenka home.
In terms of non-penalty expected goals (xG) it was City 3.23-1.09 Real.
Carlo Ancelotti’s Spanish champions deserve credit for grinding their way to this stage, but both PSG and Chelsea should have knocked them out. Over five knockout-stage games their expected goal difference (xGD) is -4.43.
City are far superior to Real Madrid. If they didn’t only need a draw to progress, the best price of 11/10 about an away win would tempt me. In the exact same situation, now the away goals rule no longer exists, City were 3/4 to win at Atletico in the last round. Real are better, but that is a big jump.
However the most comparable price probably comes from City’s opening away game in this season’s competition when they traveled to PSG and were generally priced at 13/10 without the added complication of a draw being all they needed.
The quality gap between the sides should transfer to the corner count, and that is something I’m happy to back.
In 53 matches this season, only once have Manchester City had fewer corners than their opponent. On just three other occasions it’s been a tie, meaning City have had the most corners in 92% of matches in 2021/22.
The 8/11 for MAN CITY MOST CORNERS therefore feels very generous – it’s a bet generally priced at closer to 1/2.
As the team usually in the ascendancy, despite Ancelotti’s preference for a low defensive block Madrid still usually win the corner battle – but on a far less consistent basis than City.
In their La Liga-clinching 4-0 win over Espanyol at the weekend they lost the corner count 9-6, while their previous game at the Santiago Bernabeu saw Chelsea take it 6-1 in their extra-time clash.
Real have gone further than they should have, and their run should end on Wednesday night. A Manchester City win is expected and while that may not be totally comfortable, the corner battle should be
Real Madrid v Man City best bets and score prediction
- 2.5pts Manchester City most corners at 8/11
- 1pt Manchester City (-1) corner handicap at 6/5
Score prediction: Real Madrid 1-2 Man City
