By Scott Kacsmar
Unlike last season, the Buffalo Bills are not starting out as the favorite to win the Super Bowl. Despite a storybook season, a crushing 27-10 playoff loss at home to the Bengals in the divisional round was an abrupt, disappointing ending that has many fleeing the Buffalo bandwagon.
The consensus now is that the Chiefs are better. The Bengals are better. The Eagles are better in a weaker conference. Even the New York Jets are getting more of a push right now in the AFC East because of the addition of Aaron Rodgers, a quarterback going on 40 and coming off his worst season.
The Bills are old news and blew their shot to win under Sean McDermott and Josh Allen, because no team in NFL history has ever won their first Super Bowl after starting the same quarterback for the same coach for more than five seasons. The 2022 season was Year 5 for Allen and McDermott, and they did not get it done. If anything, they came up shorter than they did in 2020 (lost in AFC Championship Game) and 2021 (13 seconds away from a home title game).
But maybe this is a good thing. Maybe this is a case of taking a step back to take steps forward. Many teams do not win a Super Bowl with their best team, but they win it with their healthiest team or the team that had everything click at the right time.
The Bills are still an elite team, and the sportsbooks are not burying them as much as the mainstream media. They are favored to win the AFC East, they are slightly ahead of Cincinnati and only behind Kansas City to make it to the Super Bowl in the AFC, and their over/under win total is one of the highest at 10.5 wins.
We look back at Buffalo’s unforgettable 2022 season, the key offseason changes, why failure is sometimes necessary, and what the best Bills bets are for 2023.
2022 Season Recap: The Emotional Rollercoaster
Every year, NFL Films does an America’s Game feature on the Super Bowl winner. Had the 2022 Bills won, that would have been an incredible story to tell, because this team had an emotional rollercoaster of a season:
- Dominating the defending champion Rams on the road on opening night.
- Losing a 21-19 scorcher in Miami despite outgaining the Dolphins by over 275 yards.
- Coming back from a 20-3 deficit to beat the Ravens in Baltimore.
- The longest play of the 2022 season when Gabe Davis caught a 98-yard touchdown against the Steelers.
- Defeating the Chiefs 24-20 in Week 6 showdown with Allen outdueling Patrick Mahomes
- Allen’s elbow injury late in a loss to the Jets that threatened to disrupt Buffalo’s dream season.
- The shocking finish to the Week 10 overtime loss against Minnesota, from the catch Justin Jefferson made on 4th-and-18 to Allen’s fumbled snap being returned for a most improbable touchdown to Allen’s MVP campaign taking a dive after his last interception.
- A snowstorm so bad in Buffalo that the team had to travel to Detroit to face Cleveland despite being scheduled to play the Lions there just 4 days later.
- The Thanksgiving game-winning drive in Detroit after the defense lost Von Miller to a torn ACL, which was not initially ruled as a season-ending injury.
- The shootout in the snow against Miami in Week 15, ending with Allen’s clutch game-winning drive in a 32-29 win.
- The Week 17 game in Cincinnati ultimately being cancelled after Damar Hamlin’s heart stopped on the field halfway through the first quarter, a traumatic moment for the team and a shock to the football world. Hamlin was thankfully revived, recovered, and he is expected to return to the field this season.
- The opening kickoff return touchdown by Nyheim Hines against the Patriots in Week 18 in front of the home crowd.
- A whacky 34-31 wild card win over the Dolphins after it looked like the Bills were going to blow a 17-point lead against a 3rd-string rookie quarterback (Skylar Thompson).
There were certainly bumps along that road, but that is not uncommon for a championship team too. The NFL is a difficult league, but the Bills had a great season where they finished 13-3 and ranked No. 2 in scoring offense and No. 2 in scoring defense. Things obviously could have been even better with the losses by a combined 8 points, and that fumble to blow the Minnesota game was beyond the pale. The worst fumble since the Miracle at the Meadowlands play in 1978.
But all the dramatic swings in this season took their toll on this team, which had to pick itself up after thinking they may have lost a teammate on the field. They had to play the following week, and that was an emotional win against the Patriots. They had to do the same against Miami, and by the time the Bengals rolled into town for that divisional game in the snow, the Bills looked flat right away. Unable to meet the intensity and focus of the Bengals, who have been a strong playoff team the last two years with fantastic gameplans, and with the Week 17 game never rescheduled and these teams not seeing each other since 2019, this was an unfamiliar opponent.
Perhaps the most shocking part about Buffalo’s loss to Cincinnati was just how quickly it happened and how little of a fight the team had to put up. It ended a 26-game streak where Buffalo did not lose by more than 6 points to anyone. The Bengals scored a touchdown on the opening drive and Buffalo responded with a 3-and-out. The Bengals scored another touchdown and just like that it was 14-0 despite the offense running 3 plays.
Buffalo finished the game only having 8 offensive possessions, and the Bills trailed by double digits on the final 7 drives – an astonishing fact when you consider the Bills had 5 drives all season (17 games) where they trailed by double digits, and they were all in the Baltimore comeback.
Just like that, the season was over. There would be no neutral field AFC Championship Game against Kansas City in Atlanta, which is the unique scenario that would have happened if the Bills beat Cincinnati. Instead, it was just the start of another long offseason without winning a Super Bowl for the Bills.
But it will be a season to remember, and it can either be the motivating factor for 2023, or it will be looked back on as the year Buffalo had greatness in its grasp and could not finish the job.
Offseason Review
The Bills return most of their core on both sides of the ball, which means they still have one of the best rosters in the league. Leslie Frazier is out at defensive coordinator, and head coach Sean McDermott is going to pull double duty and run the show there. This should be fine, because McDermott is a former DC and this is his area of expertise. The offense will again be coordinated by Ken Dorsey, who had his share of highs and lows in 2022 in his first year replacing Brian Daboll.
But for the defense, 2023 is not about which players the defense lost (Tremaine Edmunds) and gained (Leonard Floyd). It is about having the right players available at the most important time of year in the playoffs. The Bills have lost a star player on Thanksgiving to a torn ACL two years in a row now with corner Tre’Davious White (2021) and Hall of Fame pass rusher Von Miller (2022).
White only played in 6 games last season as he was slow to return from that serious injury. Miller may not be ready for Week 1 this year, but what matters is having White and Miller available for the biggest games. The Bills will not see the likes of Cincinnati, Kansas City, and Philadelphia until November and December.
Part of the reason Damar Hamlin was starting at safety last season was injuries at the position. Micah Hyde only played in 2 games before he was lost for the year, and now he is back too along with Jordan Poyer and Taylor Rapp from the Rams. The Bills are so deep at safety that Hamlin may play very little on defense this season.
As for the offense, Devin Singletary is gone at running back, and the slot receivers have left with Cole Beasley and Isaiah McKenzie out. But the Bills should be fine here. They added running back Damien Harris from the Patriots, and James Cook already looked ready to replace Singletary last year. They also added Trent Sherfield from Miami, who is a solid No. 3 option at wide receiver behind Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis.
The Bills used their 1st-round pick on tight end Dalton Kincaid, considered the best receiving tight end in the draft. Name your top tight ends in NFL history and chances are they had minimal impact as a rookie. But Kincaid gives the team a different kind of athlete at the position, and they should definitely experiment with getting Kincaid and Dawson Knox on the field together. Make teams defend something new.
This Year’s Area of Interest: Redemption Story
Winning a Super Bowl is hard work, and more often than not, the team favored to win it at the start of the season is not the team who wins it in the end. The Bills are the latest preseason favorite to not finish the job, but they hopefully learned valuable lessons from their latest failure.
NBA superstar Giannis Antetokounmpo recently had an interesting take on failure in sports after his top-seeded Bucks lost in the first round of the playoffs in an upset by the bottom-seeded Miami Heat:
“There’s no failure in sports. There’s good days, bad days, some days you are able to be successful, some days you are not, some days it is your turn, some days it’s not. That’s what sports is about. You don’t always win.”
Easier to say with a ring in hand, but this is true of team sports. The best team does not always win a championship. Sometimes, it is just not your year. But if you keep putting in the work and are always close enough, some season just might be the one where everything clicks.
It happened for the Colts in 2006, a team that was not as good as the 2005 and 2007 teams. But that was the one Super Bowl winner for the Peyton Manning era. The New York Giants (2007 and 2011) and Pittsburgh Steelers (2005 and 2008) even pulled this off twice as it is hard to say their championship teams were better than the years they had No. 1 seeds or better records. The same can be said of the 2010 Packers, 2012 Ravens, and 2015 Broncos. None of those teams were their best overall, but they had the right stuff in time for the playoff run.
What your opponent does also matters and is not always in your control. Maybe the Bengals are just going to be a bad matchup for the Bills, but in all likelihood, the AFC is going to have that 3-way race again between the Chiefs, Bills, and Bengals for the third season in a row.
Is there anyone you would trust more than Allen and the Bills to go into Kansas City and win a big game? You shouldn’t. The Chiefs are capable of losing to Buffalo and Cincinnati as they did last year in the regular season, dropping both games in the fourth quarter.
For Buffalo, catching a break would be not having to beat both the Bengals and Chiefs in the playoffs to get to the Super Bowl where they should be able to match up with the latest NFC flash in the pan. Maybe catching a break is seeing the Ravens win the AFC North with a healthy Lamar Jackson, dropping the Bengals to wild card status and making it less likely for the Bills to face them. The Bills have won multiple games over Jackson’s Ravens, including a 2020 divisional round game and last year’s 17-point comeback.
The Bills going a little under the radar instead of outright favorites could be good for them in 2023, but a key goal should still be to win the AFC East again to give themselves the best shot at a deep playoff run. That will be harder with the Dolphins having a talented roster and the Jets adding Aaron Rodgers.
Buffalo has won the division for the last three seasons, and you may be surprised to know that 9-of-13 teams since 2002 have gone on to win their division for a fourth year in a row too. If you can get to three years of division dominance, four years has not been a big issue.
There is also no guarantee that Rodgers is a smashing success in New York given how his 2022 went and what we saw with Matt Ryan (Colts) and Russell Wilson (Broncos) joining new teams. Not everyone is going to do what Tom Brady (2020 Buccaneers) and Matthew Stafford (2021 Rams) did in Year 1 with a new team and winning a Super Bowl right away. As for Miami, Tua Tagovailoa’s concussion problems are a concern, and the team already just lost Jalen Ramsey for some time to a training camp injury on Thursday.
Winning the AFC East is a top priority for Buffalo and getting the road game with the Jets in Week 1 when Rodgers may not be in top form yet is likely a nice schedule advantage. The Bills also get to go to Miami in Week 18 instead of in September when they could melt in 90-degree temperatures again.
Until proven otherwise, Buffalo is still the team to beat in the AFC East.
Best Bets for the 2023 Bills
There is always both skill and luck involved with winning a Super Bowl, and the percentages on that split can vary from team to team. The Bills have the necessary talent, but health was not quite there last year, and it was downright cruel to them if you think about what happened to Hamlin on such a routine-looking play.
Hopefully, this season will not have any games moved to another city after a deadly blizzard, or outright cancelled, and when the Bills return to Cincinnati, the site of Hamlin’s emergency, for a Sunday night game in November, the worst thing that could happen is a loss they can learn from for next time.
Fundamentally, the Bills have what it takes to win it all. For all the talk about turnovers doing them in last season, the Bills were 4-1 when they turned the ball over 3-plus times and 7-2 when they had multiple turnovers. In that 27-10 playoff loss, the only Buffalo turnover came with 1:02 left and the team was down 17 points. It had no impact.
When a team makes the playoffs four years in a row and still has not reached the Super Bowl, it can get tiresome to talk about what their “fatal flaw” is.
We could talk about how putting the ball in Allen’s hands an average of 54.5 times in playoff losses while the running backs average 12 carries for 40 yards makes the Bills too one-dimensional in the playoffs. But we probably are not even having that conversation if the Bills kickoff short in bounds in Kansas City in 2021 (or win the coin toss in overtime).
Sometimes, that “flaw” is as simple as giving up a 50-yard bomb to a rookie wide receiver on a third-and-19, and then dropping a game-winning touchdown in the end zone followed by missing a 33-yard field goal that would have sent the game to overtime.
Those are not hypotheticals. That is what happened to the Baltimore Ravens in 2010 and 2011 in playoff losses to the Steelers and Patriots before they came back to win the Super Bowl in 2012, a run that survived a divisional round exit thanks to a 70-yard touchdown bomb to Jacoby Jones in Denver after safety Rahim Moore failed to track the ball and intercept it.
Like Giannis said, some days it is your turn and some days it is not. Maybe the 2023 Bills are the team that gets a fourth-and-3 sack on Joe Burrow by Von Miller to end a game, and Super Bowl 58 is the one where Allen throws some crazy touchdown catch by Diggs, the Super Bowl MVP.
Buffalo winning over 10.5 games for the fourth year in a row would be the highest unit play to bet this year. Trusting this team to win the AFC East again is also a good idea, and if you wanted to hedge it, you might be better off showing some MVP love for Aaron Rodgers or Tua Tagovailoa instead.
But for those who are all in on this being Buffalo’s redemption story, why not go all the way to a Super Bowl win? Do you think Mahomes and Burrow are just going to start every Super Bowl for the AFC for the next decade? Even when it was Peyton Manning and Tom Brady in the AFC for 15 years (2001-15), Ben Roethlisberger still found his way to three Super Bowls, winning a pair. Allen can be that third guy.
It can be the Bills’ day for a change.
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills Over 10.5 Wins (-134 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills to Win AFC East (+130 at FanDuel)
NFL Pick: Buffalo Bills to Win Super Bowl 58 (+900 at BetRivers)
