The NBA conference finals are supposed to be the highest level of basketball. We’ve whittled down the competition down to just four teams. And yet, Game 1 of both the Eastern Conference Finals and Western Conference Finals were blowouts.
Let’s dive into Game 1 of the Boston Celtics and Miami Heat, and preview Game 2 of the series.
Boston Celtics vs. Miami Heat (1-0)
The Celtics (52-40-2 ATS) will be looking for a bounce-back performance after falling in defeat to the Heat (54-39-1 ATS) in the series-opener of the Eastern Conference Finals. Miami opened a lot of eyes by making Jayson Tatum look human and fending off a Celtics team that just toppled the defending champion Milwaukee Bucks.
One issue for the Celtics in Game 1 was missing both Al Horford and Marcus Smart on the floor Tuesday night.
Tatum was outplayed by Jimmy Butler, and the Heat outscored the Celtics 39-14 in the third quarter. Coach Ime Udoka was livid while watching his team come apart in the second-half of the game after leading by as many as 13 points. It was a collapse of epic proportions for a Celtics team that could be in for a tougher fight than most expected.
The good news for Boston is the fact that Smart is now listed as probable to return on Thursday. However, Horford, who in many ways has been a star throughout these playoffs, is still doubtful to play in Game 2.
That means Tatum is going to need to be Superman in more than just the first two quarters. Smart is a defensive savant, and he should be a nice boost for the team’s offense if he returns for this matchup. But you have to wonder if he’ll be limited in any way by his ankle injury.
You also have to wonder if they’ll get the sort of effort they got off the bench from Payton Pritchard, who scored 18 points in the last outing.
The Heat are the No. 3-ranked defensive team in the league, and Butler is averaging near 30 points per game in the postseason. There was more that factored into Boston’s loss than them simply having a bad night. This Miami team is a problem.
There’s something about the playoffs that brings Jimmy “Buckets” out of Jimmy Butler. The Heat’s star forward was at it again with a 41-point performance to knock off the Celtics in Game 1 of the Western Conference Finals.
Some would love to make the argument that Butler scoring 40-plus points isn’t sustainable, but that argument doesn’t work when you consider how he was able to get those points. None of those buckets came from 3, and he camped out at the charity stripe like a scalper waiting in line for a Playstation 5.
He knocked down 17-of-18 free throws, while going 12-of-18 from the floor. If Butler stays aggressive and continues to get to the free throw line consistently, he can make the Celtics pay with easy buckets.
But the Heat will need guys like Max Strus and Gabe Vincent to come up big offensively like they did in Game 1. This Miami team is tough to beat when they have their offense going along with their elite defense. Speaking of defense, Butler put the “return to sender” label on Jayson Tatum’s 3-point attempt on Tuesday night.
Prediction
If the Heat win another game on Thursday, it will be by the skin of their teeth.
The Celtics haven’t lost back-to-back games throughout these playoffs, and they’ll be coming out in Game 2 with a sense of urgency. They have responded to every challenge that has come their way so far, whether it was against the Brooklyn Nets or defending champion Milwaukee Bucks. This matchup with the Heat will be no different.
Smart possibly being back on the floor will be a huge lift for the Celtics. The star guard is listed as probable to play in this game, which means Boston will be tougher on both ends of the floor. The reigning Defensive Player of the Year being added to the mix can only help a Celtics team holding opponents to an average 43.2 percent shooting on the road.
Butler will come back down to Earth a bit offensively in this matchup, and Jayson Tatum won’t suffer another second-half collapse. It’s hard to envision the Celtics’ star forward going silent in back-to-back games.
Pick: Celtics +3.5
Key Trends
- Boston is 12-4 ATS in their last 16 games.
- Miami is 14-5 ATS in their last 19 games.
- Miami has won 10 straight home games.
- The under has hit in 9 of Miami’s last 12 games
