The NFL calendar continues to bring major events even though we’re in the middle of the offseason. After the 2022 NFL draft wrapped up, the full schedule release was the next big-thing for fans to look forward to. Even if we already knew who would play each other, we now know the logistical details for each team.
The difference in playing two contenders in a row across the country compared to two bottom feeders in a row at home is massive. The league is also as deep as it has ever been, so the margin for error in several divisions is tiny. Losing one or two unexpected games can completely change the playoff picture.
We’re diving into the 2022 NFL schedule release to find the two biggest winners and two biggest losers. The winners must still convert on their opportunity and the losers still have the ability to overcome their first obstacle. A Super Bowl journey isn’t complete without a little luck and beating adversity.
Winner: Indianapolis Colts
Coming off an excellent offseason where the Colts added a stable veteran quarterback in Matt Ryan, star cornerback in Stephon Gilmore, and high-upside pass-rusher in Yannick Ngakoue. This was the time for Chris Ballard to push his chips in on a quality roster and he executed well. Now it’s time to prove each move was the right decision.
The Colts are already off to an advantageous start in 2022 after evaluating their schedule. They have the most manageable schedule according to DraftKings team win projections. Their inherent advantage begins with AFC South bottom-feeders in Houston and Jacksonville.
Indianapolis also plays the NFC East. Both Dallas and Philadelphia are quality teams but neither is clearly better than the Colts. As a division, the NFC East has only one team projected to win more games than lose.
Getting the Los Angeles Chargers and Kansas City Chiefs at home are also notable advantages. Ryan will be relied upon to be the difference in these games. Carson Wentz couldn’t be trusted in the most critical games of the year and was the primary factor in collapsing down the stretch of 2021.
There’s still a rough patch for the Colts to deal with. Going on the road to face Denver, Dallas, New England, and Minnesota is notable. In total they face seven teams with 8.5 or more projected wins.
Alas, this schedule release could have been much worse for the Colts’ playoff hopes. Opening at Houston and Jacksonville should lead to a 2-1 start. They finish the year at the New York Giants and at home against the Texans.
They’ll also have five primetime games.
Loser: Kansas City Chiefs
No team has a more challenging schedule in terms of oddsmakers’ win totals than the Chiefs. The arm’s race in the AFC West certainly played a part into this formula, as each of the team’s six games against the Chargers, Raiders, and Broncos will be a battle. Plus the Chiefs drew a first-place schedule since they won the division last year.
The bad news is the Chiefs also have to deal with the loaded NFC West. Three teams in the NFC West are projected to win 8.5 or more games. The Chiefs will be relying on rookies Trent McDuffie, George Karlaftis, and Skyy Moore quite a bit, so the focus will be on young players to step up right away.
Out of those divisions, the Chiefs also play Cincincinnati, Tampa Bay, Buffalo, Tennessee, and Indianapolis. They’re all projected to win 9.5 games. The only positive is they have home games against Tennessee, Los Angeles, and Buffalo.
The three potential easy games are Houston, Seattle, and Jacksonville. Andy Reid and Patrick Mahomes will have earned it if they can once again win the AFC West.
Winner: Philadelphia Eagles
After improving their roster by adding star receiver A.J. Brown, pass-rusher Haason Reddick, and a draft haul headlined by mammoth nose tackle Jordan Davis, the Eagles have just one question-mark at quarterback. If Jalen Hurts is ready to be a franchise passer, the Eagles are a major sleeper in the NFC race. Their favorable schedule will help Hurt reach his ceiling.
Getting the second-easiest schedule per win totals will take some pressure off Philadelphia from having to go all-out all season long. Away games against Chicago, Detroit, and Houston will be feisty battles but the Eagles have the better overall roster in each matchup. Then factor in divisional games against Washington and New York, and it’s easier to see a pathway to double-digit wins.
The hard games include home games against Green Bay, Minnesota, Pittsburgh, and Tennessee. However, each has a major flaw that Philadelphia can exploit if they’re sharp. Only Green Bay can say they have a better overall roster than Philadelphia right now.
The three-week stretch from November 20 through December 4 includes a trip to Indianapolis and the home games against the Packers and Titans. It’ll be hard for the Eagles to complain when their opponents’ 2021 win percentage was .464, 30th of all teams.
Loser: Green Bay Packers
Teams that are given the dreaded London trip always get a tough draw. Instead of getting a bye week after traveling to London against the New York Giants, the Packers host the New York Jets the following Sunday. Week 7 features a road game at Washington after the Commanders enjoy a home game.
The next five weeks have several difficult battles as well. After Washington, Green Bay travels to Buffalo and then Detroit. Then a mid-afternoon home game against Dallas on November 13 followed by hosting Tennessee on Thursday Night Football four nights later.
Their reward after Tennessee is a Sunday Night Football game at Philadelphia to close out November.
The Packers are traveling a ridiculous amount without much rest. Getting the London game so early, then having to wait until Week 14 for their bye week is unusually cruel. Green Bay is a highly talented team but will go through the gauntlet due to rare circumstances.
