By Andrew Doherty
Last week was the debut of the “Play of the Week” and it started in successful fashion with the Patriots blowing out the Browns 38-15 as 3 point underdogs. I pointed out in last weeks article that it was a game that the Patriots should have been favored in and suggested taking them to win outright as well. Overall last weeks early plays went 2-1 (3-1 if you were bold enough to double down and take New England money line with me) with the Bengals covering in ugly fashion (but a win is a win) and the Buccaneers falling apart as 10 point favorites after opening at -8. As I look to keep the good fortune rolling into Week Seven, here are my top early plays for the week:
Play of the Week: Patriots -7 vs Bears
Return of the Mac?
QB Mac Jones is legitimately questionable to play for the first time since suffering an ankle injury back in Week Three, but either way we are going back to the well again this week with the Patriots. This is an excellent matchup for New England regardless of who’s under center and I don’t expect the opening line of -7 to last very long. Simply put, it’s a well coached team against a poorly coached team.
The Patriots running game has been the focal point of their offense since the Mac Jones injury, averaging 147 yards per game since he’s been out. Chicago’s porous run defense ranks 29th in the league in rush yards allowed, averaging 163 per game. De-facto workhorse running back Rhamondre Stevenson is in line for another massive performance against the Bears subpar run defense.
Contrarily, the Bears own ground attack ranks 2nd in league behind only the Browns in yards per game, averaging 170.8 per game. Speaking of the Browns top ranked rushing attack, they were held to just 70 yards on the ground against the Patriots run defense (that seems to be improving weekly) in Week Six. Perhaps even more impressive was the fact that New England was able to limit Nick Chubb to only 56 yards rushing in Week Six after he had run for at least 87 yards in every prior game this year, surpassing 100 yards in 4 of 5 contests before being stifled by the Patriots.
Chicago has largely relied on its running game this year in attempts to hide the massive flaws in their passing game. The Bears rank dead last in the league by a wide margin in passing yards per game with a pathetic 122.8 average though six weeks. With New England’s run defense proving capable of stopping even the most lethal of ground attacks these past two weeks, Chicago will be forced to throw more often than they’d like. Problem is, while the Patriots are league average in passing yards allowed, they rank 6th in the league in opponent completion percentage at 58.5%, which is particularly problematic for a team who’s quarterback is only completing 54.8% of his passes through six weeks. The Bears entire offense, which is ranked 31st in points per game, projects to be completely overmatched against a Patriots defense that is 7th in points allowed per game 18.8 and has only allowed an average of 14.0 points over their last 3 games.
I mentioned earlier that this matchup features a well coached team and a poorly coached team. As it turns out, the head coach for the well coached team is currently tied for second all time in head coaching wins and will move into sole possession of second place with a win on Monday Night. While Bill Belichick frequently dismisses individual accomplishments and statistics, you can bet he’ll have a little extra motivation to win in Week Seven.
Other NFL Week 7 Play:
Titans -2 vs Colts
This is my only other early play for the week before injury reports come out and it’s a classic over-reaction spot, largely due to the Colts being able to win their last two games over the Jaguars and Broncos. Both teams currently sit at 3 wins on the season, but coming off a bye week the Titans have played one less game on the year. Head coach Mike Vrabel has historically done well coming off a bye week, and the extra rest for workhorse Derrick Henry sure helps. When these two teams met three weeks ago in Indianapolis it ended with a 24-17 Titans victory and I just haven’t seen anything from the Colts to suggest they’ll fare any better on the road in a rematch. I’d expect this to move to -3 before close.
