By Scott Kacsmar
The Week 5 NFL slate could have some exciting matchups in Chargers-Browns and Eagles-Cardinals for creating DFS lineups on DraftKings and FanDuel.
A review of last week’s picks:
- Atlanta quarterback Marcus Mariota scored fewer fantasy points than New England third-stringer Bailey Zappe last Sunday, so that tells you how well that “value” pick went.
- Austin Ekeler (RB2 in Week 4) finally delivered his first three touchdowns of the season as the Houston run defense is a gift that keeps on giving.
- Mark Andrews was a colossal bust at tight end in a week where you basically needed to nail the T.J. Hockenson pick in the 48-45 game.
- Matt Ryan threw for 356 yards against Tennessee, and yet No. 1 receiver Michael Pittman somehow had just 31 of those yards.
- Carolina’s D.J. Moore did have his most targets (11), catches (six), and yards (50) in a game this season, but it was still not good enough for what the Panthers and your DFS lineups need.
We’ll aim to do much better on this Sunday. We also have changed up the format a little to provide you with our top choice for QB/RB/TE/WR as well as quick tips on which high-priced players to fade or play, and multiple flex choices.
Quarterback: Tom Brady (Buccaneers) vs. Falcons
Do you really think Tom Brady is going to lose four home games in a row for the first time in his career to an Atlanta team he is 10-0 against? Not to mention an Atlanta team that is missing Cordarrelle Patterson and Kyle Pitts.
That fact makes the blowout more likely, which is troublesome because Brady may not need to throw into the fourth quarter to accumulate more points. But with the way he was throwing it last week with his receivers back, he should be able to do fine work in three quarters here.
In four starts against Atlanta as a member of the Buccaneers, Brady has thrown 15 touchdown passes (at least four in three straight games) and has thrown for passing-yardage totals of 390, 399, 276, and 368 yards.
He is not playing a Kansas City team seeking revenge for Super Bowl LV this week, and if the Falcons were still seeking revenge for Super Bowl LI, then what do they call these last five losses to Brady? The team they’re putting on the field isn’t even recognizable by 2016 standards.
This should be a rout and Brady should have no problem hitting 300 yards and three touchdowns. You could stack him with Mike Evans or Chris Godwin in this matchup.
Premium Quarterback Advice:
- Fade Josh Allen against the Steelers as he has never averaged better than 5.6 yards per attempt against them in three meetings.
- Play Jalen Hurts in Arizona in what could be a high-scoring game if the good Kyler Murray shows up.
Running Back: Damien Harris (Patriots) vs. Lions
While Harris has never had a 1,000-yard rushing season in the NFL, he scored 15 touchdowns last year to go with 929 rushing yards in 15 games. Let him play the 2022 Lions every week and he’d make his first Pro Bowl.
The Detroit defense has been shockingly bad, ranked 32nd in points, yards, first downs, rushing touchdowns, and yards per carry allowed. Detroit games are also laughably high scoring as the 281 combined points are an NFL record for the first four games of a season.
Things won’t be 48-45 this week in New England, and no one is calling this a Matt Patricia Revenge Game, but the Patriots are definitely going to run the ball often with third-string rookie Bailey Zappe getting the start at quarterback. That means Harris will split carries with Rhamondre Stevenson, and that split is currently going Harris’ way 53-43 this year.
But Harris is the touchdown maker as he has 18 in the last two seasons compared to just six for Stevenson. It is very possible that both have decent stat lines in this game as long as Zappe isn’t a nightmare in his first start. But we can trust Bill Belichick to be on top of things, and Harris should be a good value pick at running back this Sunday.
Premium Running Back Advice:
- Fade Christian McCaffrey against that absurdly good San Francisco defense that is allowing 2.9 yards per carry.
- Play Nick Chubb against the Chargers after he had 161 yards and a touchdown against them last year.
Tight End: Zach Ertz (Cardinals) vs. Eagles
The best game this weekend for tight ends may be in Arizona between Zach Ertz and his former teammate Dallas Goedert. Ertz was traded last season, so this will be his first game against the Eagles. He’ll obviously want to do great, and he has been one of the better tight ends this season with two touchdowns and a 75-yard game in between those scoring weeks.
Goedert should be a good pick too, but the Eagles just have more weapons available, and the quarterback (Jalen Hurts) is such a threat to run in touchdowns himself. The same can be said about Kyler Murray in Arizona, but the Cardinals still are lacking receiving options with A.J. Green injured and DeAndre Hopkins serving his six-game suspension.
Premium Tight End Advice:
- If you saw last week’s rant about the tight end position, it is hard to say there are premium players available, especially when Mark Andrews plays on Sunday night and Travis Kelce and Darren Waller play on Monday night.
- Fade George Kittle in Carolina as the 49ers just don’t throw much to him right now with left tackle Trent Williams injured.
- Play T.J. Hockenson in New England even though Amon-Ra St. Brown seems to be ready to return at wide receiver, but Jared Goff is still going to need his tight end to deliver.
Wide Receiver: Terry McLaurin (Commanders) vs. Titans
McLaurin was quiet in Dallas with 15 yards on two catches and six targets. He has not scored a touchdown since Week 1, but Jahan Dotson, the rookie who has four scores for Washington, is out with an injury. This could open the door for Carson Wentz to remember who his best receiver is.
The Tennessee defense is allowing 8.2 yards per pass attempt (ranked 31st) and does not have a lock-down corner on the roster. While McLaurin won’t sniff the greatness of Stefon Diggs’ game with three touchdowns against Tennessee in Week 2, he has the potential to score and gain at least 80 yards in this game.
Premium Wide Receiver Advice:
- Fade Tyreek Hill, who is questionable with a quad injury, against the Jets.
- Play Stefon Diggs against Pittsburgh where he should get at least a dozen targets as the Bills are down so many skill players.
Other Flex Choices:
Bills RB Devin Singletary vs. Steelers: With injuries to the slot receivers and tight end Dawson Knox, Singletary could rack up the receptions again as well as score on the ground against what is a vulnerable run defense.
Jaguars RB James Robinson vs. Texans: Always start the running back against the Houston defense this year until proven otherwise. Plus, Robinson is a good player who should bounce back from a bad game script and weather conditions in Philadelphia last week.
Steelers WR George Pickens vs. Bills: Pickens had his first 100-yard receiving game last week, but he is still searching for that first touchdown in his NFL career. It’s a tough matchup in Buffalo, but what if Kenny Pickett starting is the key to unlocking this talent that was the favorite for Offensive Rookie of the Year before Week 1?
