The Boston Celtics look to defend home court against the Golden State Warriors in Game 3 of the 2022 NBA Finals this Wednesday evening on ABC. The series is tied 1-1 after Boston was dominated in the second half of Game 2.
The Celtics are a 3.5-point home favorite. Several of Boston’s role players are looking to bounce back at home while MVP favorite Steph Curry eyes another big scoring night. But what about the other member of the Splash Brothers?
Klay Thompson Prop Analysis
Klay Thompson lighting it up in a playoff game is an inevitable event, but he has not been at his best in the last couple of rounds. Thompson scored just 11 points, his lowest this postseason, in Game 2’s blowout win despite still shooting deep into the fourth-quarter rout against backups. Thompson shot 4-of-19 from the field, his worst shooting game this postseason.
The man known as “Game 6 Klay” has only gone on a scoring explosion twice in his last 14 playoff games when he made eight threes in close-out games against the Grizzlies and Mavericks. Thompson has failed to score 20 points in 11 of his last 14 playoff games.
The good news is Thompson has had at least one 20-point game in every playoff series in his career that lasted at least five games. This is a great spot for Thompson to show up on the road to help Steph Curry out with the scoring load against this tough Boston defense.
Thompson’s scoring line is 19.5 points, so let’s look for that 20-point game right here.
NBA Pick: Klay Thompson Over 19.5 Points
Marcus Smart Prop Analysis
While Marcus Smart is the NBA’s reigning Defensive Player of the Year, his shot could use some work to say the least. Smart shot 41.8% from the field in the regular season, which is only the second season in his career he hit was above 40%.
But Smart can be a streaky shooter. He made four threes in Game 1 on his way to 18 points in the big comeback win. But in Game 2, Smart was terrible and not aggressive for Boston.
He scored just two points and it was the only playoff game this season where Smart failed to hit a three. The three attempts from downtown also tied a playoff low for him this year.
Smart needs to come out and be more aggressive on the offensive end for Boston. The Celtics are 8-1 this postseason when Smart makes at least two threes. It should not be a tall order for him to make at least two threes in this matchup. You could even tease it up to three made threes at +150 odds at Bovada.
NBA Pick: Marcus Smart Over 1.5 Three-Point Field Goals Made
Steph Curry Prop Analysis
Looking at the big picture, let’s focus on a player performance double involving Steph Curry and the Warriors winning Game 3. This feels like a series where the Warriors have been the better team so far. Boston has only dominated one quarter out of eight, and that was the dramatic fourth quarter in Game 1 with lights-out shooting.
Boston has had to climb back from multiple double-digit deficits in this series, and the Warriors blew out the Celtics in both third quarters.
While the series is shifting to Boston, the Celtics are only 5-4 at home this postseason with plenty of disappointing showings. The game is also not tipping off until 9:00 p.m. ET on the East Coast, and historically teams from the West Coast tend to fare well in such late starts on the east due to their circadian rhythms and body clocks.
The Celtics are making 58.1% of their wide-open shots in this series (according to NBA.com) while the Warriors are at 46.2%. But that gap should close, and the Warriors have the better shooting talent. Curry has been more consistent this postseason than Jayson Tatum, who did not receive much help from his teammates in Game 2.
Curry has made at least three threes in 15 of his 18 playoff games this year, so that mark has been almost automatic for him. That is why the player performance double with Curry making three threes and the Warriors winning should be an enticing wager to make in Game 3.
If we’re taking the over on threes, then taking the over on points also makes sense with Curry. He’s averaging 31.5 points per game against Boston’s vaunted defense through two games.
Golden State was 8-10 SU as a road underdog this season, and only three teams had a higher winning percentage.
NBA Pick: Steph Curry to Have 3+ Three-Point Field Goals Made, Over 28.5 points, and Golden State to Win (+220)
