By Andrew Doherty
Yuck.
Kicking off Week 6 we have the Commanders visiting the Bears in the prime-time matchup that nobody asked for. This game has the lowest projected scoring total of the week, with the over/under currently sitting at 38. I won’t sugarcoat it: This game may be very painful to watch. Despite featuring two lackluster offenses, there is value to be found on every slate and it’s my job to find it. Here are my best value plays for Thursday night’s slate:
Justin Fields
Maybe this is it. Maybe this is the week that the Bears’ anemic passing game finally shows something resembling a pulse. Against a Commanders defense that ranks 29th in the league in defensive pass DVOA at 20.6%, there’s a high likelihood that Fields has his best game yet in 2022 as a passer. Yes, the fact that the Bears rank dead last in the league in pass play rate at 39.9% is far from ideal. However, Fields has quietly been more efficient over the past 2 games than he was over the first 3, throwing for 382 yards on 43 pass attempts. Against an exploitable Washington secondary, it seems like there will be few opportunities this season as good as this one for Fields and the Bears offense to start clicking in the passing game. Even if this isn’t the week (if it ever comes) that Chicago’s aerial attack shows signs of life, Fields is still a threat to rack up fantasy points with his legs. Fields is 3rd in the league in QB rushing attempts, which at least offers a decent floor on a slate where they are few and far between.
Brian Robinson
What a ride it’s been with Brian Robinson since August. After it looked like his season may be over just a few weeks ago, Robinson made his NFL debut last week against the Titans. While his snap count and pure volume on Sunday were nothing to write home about, there was a noteworthy takeaway from Washington’s backfield. Robinson out-carried Antonio Gibson 9 to 3. Again, 9 carries are nothing to write home about, but it’s clear that he’s the preferred early-down option in Washington. The context of those carries is important too; it’s likely the Commanders had him on a snap count and were easing him back into the fold. Despite a short turnaround, there’s a high probability that Robinson sees his workload increase this week. Against a Bears defense that ranks 31st in the league in rushing yards allowed per game at a pitiful 170 yards, Robinson is in a prime spot to continue to exceed expectations with his miraculous comeback story.
Darnell Mooney
As I said alluded to earlier, if there was ever a week for the Bears passing game to gain some momentum, it would be this week. Despite allowing a respectable 235 passing yards per game, Washington’s secondary has been more vulnerable than you’d think. Through 5 games, they’ve allowed an average of 35.2 fantasy points per game to opposing wide receivers, 4th most in the league. Mooney, who has seen a minimum of 5 targets in each of his last 3 games, leads the team in targets, receptions, and receiving yards. He’s Chicago’s unquestioned top receiver against a porous Commanders secondary that just benched it’s number-one cornerback in Week Five for poor performance. He certainly isn’t the sexiest option (no one on this slate is) but the price is right for Mooney this week.
Bears Defense
The Bears D? Really?
Well, you probably noticed that I didn’t mention either of the Commanders top wideouts, Terry McLaurin and Curtis Samuel, who are without a doubt the most talented players on this slate, as plays for this week. There are a few reasons for that:
- Chicago is a top-10 defense in passing yards allowed at 197.2 per game.
- Chicago is tied for 1st in the league in opponent passing touchdown percentage at 33.3%.
- Carson Wentz, who ranks 21st in completion percentage and has thrown 6 interceptions already this season, is dealing with a biceps tendon strain.
The Bears defense has been excellent at getting after the quarterback as well. They rank 1st in QB hurry rate at 17.9% and their 27.2% pressure rate ranks 6th. They should feast on a banged Carson Wentz who has been sacked 20 times through 5 games, which is the third highest in the league.
To recap: An often sacked, turnover-prone quarterback dealing with an injury to his throwing arm is facing a highly effective pass rush and above-average passing defense on a short week. You know what to do. Start “Da Bears”.
