By Andrew Doherty
Coming off a successful Thursday Night in Week 4 that saw everyone mentioned in this weekly article find the endzone in the first half, we look to keep the momentum going for this Thursday’s slate. Week 5 kicks off with the Colts heading to Denver to take on the Broncos in what projects to be a low-scoring affair. This game has the third-lowest projected total for Week 5, with the over/under currently sitting at 42.
Do I LOVE anyone on this slate? No, not really. There’s value to be found on every slate, however, and it’s my job to find it. Here are my top three plays for this matchup:
Best Thursday Night Football NFL DFS Plays for Week 5
Courtland Sutton, Denver Broncos
Sutton will be highly played on Thursday’s slate and there’s a good chance he’ll be in more lineups than anyone else in this matchup. Sometimes you just have to roll with the majority and this is one of those times.
It’s a better matchup than it appears on the surface for Russell Wilson’s favorite target. Facing an Indianapolis defense that has only allowed 207.5 passing yards per game, we aren’t counting on Sutton to rack up a ton of yardage, we’re counting on him to find the endzone. While the Colts defense has been successful at limiting passing yardage for opponents, they’ve not fared nearly as well at preventing touchdowns through the air, already allowing 7 passing touchdowns on the season. On the road, they’ve allowed 2 passing touchdowns per game against Davis Mills and Trevor Lawrence. Sutton, a massive 6’4” target monster, should see ample scoring opportunities in what will likely be a low-scoring game.
I mentioned that Sutton is Russell Wilson’s favorite target, right? He’s already commanded 35 targets through 4 games. For context, the number two option in Denver’s passing game Jerry Jeudy has 21 targets on the year. That’s an average of 3.5 less targets per game than Sutton for those of you keeping score at home. After racking up 343 yards on the season with an average of 6 catches per game, Sutton offers a safe floor with a massive ceiling this week and every week going forward.
Broncos defense
I don’t often suggest starting defense as a top play and I’ll admit that it’s certainly not the most exciting move for a Thursday Night slate. However, I’ll take value wherever I can get it and if it also ends up a contrarian play as it often does, all the better. The only other time I’ve done it this season was back in Week Three’s Thursday Night matchup between the Browns and Steelers, and the Browns defense rewarded me with a touchdown off of a recovered fumble.
Denver’s defense has allowed 17.0 points per game so far this season, tied with the Buccaneers for 5th in the league. Here’s where it gets even better: it’s a home matchup for the Broncos and they’ve only allowed 9.5 points per game at Mile High Stadium this year, where they have arguably the best home-field advantage in the league. Denver has 11 sacks on the season already, along with 3 fumble recoveries and a safety. They’ve only recorded 1 interception on the season, but they’re in a prime spot to boost that number given how Matt Ryan has been playing this year.
Matt Ryan has already thrown 5 interceptions on the season, with a 1:1 TD/INT ratio. He’s also been sacked 7 times. The Colts offense is currently dead last in the league in points per game at 14.3 and has been even worse on the road, averaging 10.0 points per game away from Indianapolis. You can start the Broncos D with confidence on Thursday.
Mo Alie-Cox, Indianapolis Colts
Alie-Cox may seem like a flukey play after a breakout performance last week where he went 6/85/2 on 6 targets, but the Indianapolis offense desperately needs another consistent pass catcher to emerge alongside wide receiver Michael Pittman Jr. With star running back Jonathan Taylor ruled out for Thursday’s contest with an ankle injury, the Colts passing attack is going to need to pick up the slack.
Modestly priced, Alie-Cox offers flexibility in your build with slate winning upside. He’s not projected a ton of volume, but he’s going to be Matt Ryan’s second read often in the red zone. With Michael Pittman Jr likely to be mostly matched up against star cornerback Patrick Surtain (who is fresh off an excellent showing against Davante Adams), Matt Ryan will need to look elsewhere often.
