By Scott Kacsmar
For the first time since the 2009 season, all NFL wild card games are rematches from the regular season, including three division matchups happening for a third time this year.
After a regular season that was unpredictable to say the least, we could be in store for some wild upsets during this weekend’s six-game slate. Since 2011, favorites in the wild card round are 31-17 SU (.646), and nine of the last 11 seasons had at least one underdog win outright. Three underdogs won outright in 2013, 2018, and 2019, and there are two extra games now.
The narratives for some of this week’s games read like bait to trick people into expecting an easy win for the favorite.
- Seahawks at 49ers (-10): The team with the rookie quarterback is looking for a three-game sweep of a division rival, the last team to get in.
- Chargers at Jaguars (+1): Was 38-10 just a fluke in Week 3 by Jacksonville, and will the Chargers be affected by playing starters in a losing effort in Denver?
- Dolphins at Bills (+10.5): Which of the three quarterbacks play for Miami with the Bills barely leading 51-50 in the cumulative score between these teams this season?
- Giants at Vikings (-3): These teams with rookie head coaches have won more games when trailing by at least a touchdown in the fourth quarter this season than they have in the previous decade combined.
- Ravens at Bengals (-6.5): Does Lamar Jackson return for the first time since Week 13, and were the Bengals even trying that hard on Sunday knowing this rematch could happen?
- Cowboys at Buccaneers (+3): Turnover-prone Dallas just scored its fewest points in a game since Week 1’s 19-3 loss to a Tampa Bay team that is known for feasting on an opponent’s miscues to steal games.
With the season we just experienced, there is no way favorites are going 6-0 SU this week. We selected the best moneyline upset for each conference on this wild card weekend.
AFC: Jaguars over Chargers (-1)
When these teams met in Week 3, all the concern was over Justin Herbert after he injured rib cartilage in Kansas City in Week 2. He has never missed a game to injury, and he would watch that streak continue in this one, though the spread did get cut in half with his health concern.
But forget the spread – the Jaguars were absolutely dominant on both sides of the ball in a 38-10 win. The offense had arguably its best game of the season with 38 points, 8-of-15 on third down, no turnovers, no sacks allowed, 268 yards and three touchdowns for Trevor Lawrence, and 151 yards on the ground. The defense allowed a season-low 26 rushing yards, forced Herbert into two turnovers, and held him under 13 points for just the third time in his career.
But the Jaguars faded into obscurity after that win by losing five straight to start 2-6 before this rally, aided by Tennessee’s collapse, to take the AFC South and host this game. You could argue that since Week 3, the Jaguars have not looked as good and the Chargers have not looked that bad.
But last Sunday was a bad finish for the Chargers, losing 31-28 in Denver and allowing Russell Wilson to hit three 50-yard pass plays. It was the first time all season Denver scored 30 points, ending the Chargers’ streak of four games allowing no more than 17 points.
The worst part may have been Brandon Staley’s usage of starters in a game where he was locked into a No. 5 seed and knew he very well could travel across the country to play a Jacksonville team that has an extra day of rest. Why is Herbert throwing nearly 40 passes in three quarters? Why is Keenan Allen still catching a touchdown late in the fourth quarter after Mike Williams already left with an injury before halftime? A big part of the regression on offense this year has been bad healthy for the top two wide receivers.
It just did not make much sense, and the Chargers didn’t even get any momentum or a win out of it. Williams is having back spasms but could play on Saturday. He has had a few injury problems this year, which is why it was a bit mad to put him on the field at all on Sunday.
This is Staley’s first playoff game as a head coach. Doug Pederson has already won four of these with Nick Foles in Philadelphia, including a Super Bowl. It is also the first playoff game for both quarterbacks, and while Lawrence may still rank behind Herbert, he’s had a nice breakout year, and he should have home-field advantage and arguably the better team around him in this one.
Lawrence and the Jaguars did not look great on offense last week against the Titans, but Tennessee is a tough defense that makes you one-dimensional by shutting down the run. Jacksonville had a season-low 19 rushing yards. Look for that number to go way up with Travis Etienne taking on a Chargers defense that is 28th in yards and dead last in yards per carry.
The Chargers are 3-7 when they allow over 20 points this season. The Jaguars need to get to that number at a bare minimum. Earlier this year, Jacksonville ended a 41-game losing streak when allowing more than 20 points in a game. But since then, the Jaguars are 3-1 in such games, showing against the likes of the Raiders, Ravens, and Cowboys that they can win high-scoring games that require late game-winning drives.
The Jacksonville defense is also thriving right now, allowing 22 points over the last three games, and producing that fumble return touchdown against the Titans to win the division. The competition has been poor with the Jets, Texans, and Titans down the stretch, but Jacksonville has slowed Herbert down once this season. Very similar things can be said about the weak competition the Chargers propped up their defensive stats against in the final weeks, though they didn’t even finish the job against Denver, making Wilson look vintage again.
It would just be Herbert’s luck to start his playoff career against the team he lost to 38-10, and possibly without his second-best receiver and best deep-ball weapon. But I think it’s going to happen, and while the game will be far closer than 38-10, look for the Jaguars to continue this wave for one more week and pull this one out at home.
NFC: Giants over Vikings (-3)
This is a great matchup since these teams likely could not beat any other NFC playoff team but each other. If you doubt me, then consider that these teams are a combined 1-8 against the NFC playoff field this year. The one win was Minnesota escaping with a 27-24 win over the Giants in Week 16 after Greg Joseph hit a 61-yard field goal on the final play.
The Giants are 0-6 against the NFC playoff field, but they nearly snapped Minnesota’s historic close-game winning streak. That game is the only time this year either one of these teams blew a fourth-quarter lead. Otherwise, they are 16-0 at holding onto a one-score lead in the fourth quarter (9-0 for Vikings, 7-0 for Giants). That streak is just dying to get snapped this postseason.
Close-game success is why these teams are in this matchup and not sitting at home after disappointing 7-10 or 8-8-1 seasons like they are used to. Both teams have been outscored by their opponents this season, but the Vikings are the only team in NFL history to have a negative scoring differential while still winning more than 11 games. The fact they are 13-4 with a minus-3 scoring differential is just absurd, but everything about this Minnesota season has been absurd.
The Giants were all the rage early at 6-1 when Daniel Jones became the first quarterback in NFL history to lead five game-winning drives in a team’s first seven games. But the Vikings outdid that by tying the NFL records with eight fourth-quarter comeback wins and game-winning drives. That includes a 33-0 comeback against the Colts, the largest comeback win in NFL history.
The Vikings are 11-0 in close games, defined as games where at least one of the teams had the ball with the game tied or down by 1-to-8 points in the fourth quarter or overtime. Throw in last postseason for head coach Kevin O’Connell when he was offensive coordinator of the Rams, and he has won 14 straight close games with 11 game-winning drives and 10 fourth-quarter comebacks (five from double-digit deficits). He coordinated the only offense to ever win three straight playoff games by three points.
The NFL hasn’t seen a run of close-game success like this since the 2003-04 Patriots won 21 straight games with a 17-0 record in close games. But even that run included just four comebacks and eight game-winning drives.
The Giants have only done better than 27 points in one game this season, but at least it was the last game for Jones and the starters against the Colts in Week 17. Still, they likely do not score enough to make this another blowout loss for the Vikings this year, so it should be another close game like Week 16 was.
But that game showed some very good signs for the Giants despite the loss. The Giants gained a season-high 445 yards of offense as Jones was able to pass for over 300 yards with three of his wide receivers having big games against a Minnesota defense that has been disappointing to say the least.
The Vikings got two takeaways with the Giants in scoring territory, blocked a punt in the fourth quarter, and they still needed a 61-yard field goal to put this team away. The Giants also allowed just one 20-yard play to the Vikings, and it was very early in the game. They blitzed Kirk Cousins often as they are prone to do as the Giants are the top blitzing defense in the league according to Pro Football Reference. They also have one of the best pressure rates, so their blitzing has been effective. The Vikings have lost some linemen late in the season too, so watch out for that.
Justin Jefferson is incredible, and he led the NFL with 128 catches and 1,809 yards this year. He was great again with 133 yards and a touchdown against these Giants, though he has had an issue with repeating his success in two matchups against the same defense this year:
- Jefferson vs. Packers: From 184 yards down to 15 yards
- Jefferson vs. Lions: From 14 yards up to 223 yards
- Jefferson vs. Bears: From 154 yards down to 38 yards
Jefferson only played half the game in Sunday’s win over Chicago, but these are still huge swings from game to game. It is not unrealistic to think the Giants do a better job against him this time.
If any team is suited to stop these Vikings in a close playoff game, it is these Giants. If the Vikings survive this game, they’ll likely get blown out in San Francisco in the divisional round. Let’s bank on Daniel Jones being one of those surprisingly good playoff quarterbacks like Jeff Hostetler or Nick Foles, and let’s watch the Giants get this done against the worst 13-win team in NFL history.
But even if you disrespect these Vikings, you have to admit they have been a fun and historic team to watch this year. This game could be the most dramatic of the six this weekend.
