By Scott Kacsmar
The first Sunday of the 2022 NFL season is upon us. That means DFS contests with millionaire-making potential on DraftKings and FanDuel.
But no matter which contests you enter, the key is to find the best-value picks that are going to help you to a winning position. It’s not very helpful to tell you to play Patrick Mahomes, Jonathan Taylor, and Justin Jefferson this week.
With that said, here are five of our favorite players to include in your Week 1 NFL lineups.
Quarterback: Trey Lance (49ers) vs. Bears
Sunday’s shootouts look like they will fall in the late-afternoon window when the Chargers and Raiders meet in Los Angeles, and the Chiefs travel to Arizona. But a player to take a big chance on in the early slot and in general this Week 1 is San Francisco’s Trey Lance, who is priced as the eighth or ninth highest quarterback depending on your chosen DFS site.
Sure, tight end George Kittle is very questionable to play with a groin injury and expectations are he will miss the game. But the good news is when the 49ers played in Chicago last year, Jimmy Garoppolo shredded them with 322 yards on 28 attempts (11.5 YPA). Kittle was inactive for that game too. Deebo Samuel made the monster plays with 171 yards, making a Lance-Samuel stack a very attractive option in this matchup with the potential for rushing touchdowns.
But the reason to play Lance isn’t to expect a 300-yard passing game. You want to see him use his legs and add points from rushing. He started two games as a rookie and had 24 rushing attempts for 120 yards in those games. That is Lamar Jackson territory for a rushing quarterback.
If Kittle is likely out, that should only increase the likelihood of Lance putting up rushing value in this matchup. Chicago’s defense does not look improved enough from last season. Look for Lance to start 2022 with a strong all-around game.
Running Back: Dameon Pierce (Texans) vs. Colts
Houston’s fourth-round rookie back Dameon Pierce is said to be the team’s starter for Week 1 against the Colts. While the Texans may want to use a committee approach, and Rex Burkhead is the better receiving back, Pierce should see the bulk of carries and is a cheap option to try this week. If he has a breakout game, you’ll never see his price this low again this season.
But another reason to like him is that Colts All-Pro linebacker Shaquille Leonard is reportedly out with an injury, a big blow to Indy’s defense. The Colts destroyed Houston in both matchups last year, 31-3 and 31-0. The Texans never had much time to get a run game established, and the quarterback situation wasn’t good with Tyrod Taylor and rookie Davis Mills.
But Mills should be better this year, and he actually had very respectable rookie numbers in home games in 2021. This is a home game, and Frank Reich’s Colts have had some poor efforts in season openers since 2018. It would not be that big of a surprise to see Houston make this a tough game and feeding Pierce could be part of it.
This is a week where the heavy-hitters at running back will be used like Jonathan Taylor on the other side of this game, or the Nick Chubb vs. Christian McCaffrey matchup in Carolina. But for a value pick, I like Pierce.
Tight End: Dallas Goedert (Eagles) vs. Lions
The big names at tight end should eat well this week with Travis Kelce facing the Cardinals and Mark Andrews taking on the Jets. But if you are searching for a cheaper option, I like Philadelphia’s Dallas Goedert in Detroit.
Goedert has scored a touchdown on opening day two years in a row, but this is the first time he opens a season out of the Zach Ertz’s shadow after the Eagles traded him to Arizona during the 2021 season. Goedert responded with the best season of his career with 830 yards on a team that did not throw the ball a ton.
In fact, in a 44-6 win in Detroit last season, Jalen Hurts attempted just 14 passes. Goedert still had six catches for 72 yards that day. Look for the Eagles to throw the ball more this time, and Goedert should play well against a defense that still looks unimpressive.
A lot of attention will go to new wide receiver A.J. Brown, but Goedert is still going to be a critical target in this offense for Hurts. He should be more of the security blanket underneath while Brown and second-year wideout DeVonta Smith are the big-play threats.
Wide Receiver: Hunter Renfrow (Raiders) vs. Chargers
Davante Adams will make his highly-anticipated team debut with the Raiders in a big game against the Chargers, a potential shootout after these teams went to overtime in a 35-32 finish to end the 2021 regular season.
The injury news is already bad for the Chargers with new corner J.C. Jackson expected to miss this game. That sounds great for Adams, the most expensive wideout at FanDuel and DraftKings in Week 1.
But the player I really expect huge things from this year is Hunter Renfrow. He already caught 103 balls last season at a ridiculous 80.5% catch rate. If Josh McDaniels is going to implement a Patriots-style offense in Las Vegas, then Renfrow is a dead ringer to play the Wes Welker/Julian Edelman role that was so prolific for New England all those years.
Renfrow only had four catches for 13 yards against the Chargers in Week 18, but two of those were touchdowns. He also found the end zone against the Chargers on the road earlier in the season. Call him the poor man’s Cooper Kupp if you want, but Renfrow is always open and playing with Adams in a McDaniels-coached offense should only help him to greater things.
Let it start this weekend in what could be another fine shootout in the AFC West.
Flex: Tee Higgins (Bengals) vs. Steelers
The Steelers had the worst run defense in franchise history last season, and they know Cincinnati running back Joe Mixon has been a real problem with 165 rushing yards in the last matchup. The Steelers also know how Ja’Marr Chase was such a huge boost to Joe Burrow last year in helping this team to a surprise Super Bowl appearance.
But are the Steelers going to remember to guard Tee Higgins too? Higgins was on fire in the playoffs, posting at least 96 yards in each of the last three games, including 100 yards and two touchdown catches in the Super Bowl loss against the Rams.
Even better than that, Higgins has played the Steelers twice with Burrow as his quarterback. He’s had a touchdown in each game and 114 or 115 yards, two of the finest games of his career.
Pittsburgh has had its hands full with the Bengals in recent years. While Burrow did not pass for 200 yards in either game last year, he was very efficient and effective. Look for the Bengals to air it out more at home on Sunday and for Higgins to have another big game. I like him more at his price ($6,100) than I like Chase at his ($7,100).
Nice picjsy, thanks