By Andrew Doherty
The second NFL Sunday of the season is upon us, and it’s a great week to take advantage of Week One overreactions. We see it happen year after year, talking heads and media members shooting from the hip with hot takes coming into Week 2.
As usual, we’ll pay them no mind and attack the market inefficiencies in betting lines that occur as a result. I checked the player prop market for every game, and these are the most inefficient lines I could find.
Tom Brady (Buccaneers) under 276.5 yards passing
Betting against the GOAT? That typically doesn’t end well but it actually makes sense when he plays against New Orleans. The Saints defense has given Brady fits since he joined the Buccaneers. In fact, Brady has thrown as many interceptions (8) as he has touchdowns (8) against the Saints.
With a depleted offensive line, no Chris Godwin and a banged-up Mike Evans who didn’t practice on Thursday, there’s little reason to believe Brady will suddenly find success against this elite defense. TB12 is 0-4 vs the Saints in the regular season since his arrival in Tampa Bay and has averaged 247 yards passing in those games. His per-game averages are inflated by a single 375-yard performance, while passing for 209, 214, and 239 yards in the other three regular season contests.
I don’t normally advise betting against Brady, but this week’s line leaves me no choice.
Michael Carter (Jets) over 2.5 receptions
In my prop bet article for Week 1, I said that despite being the unquestioned starter at running back for the Jets, Michael Carter wasn’t being treated like it by oddsmakers and the 12.5 receiving yard line being offered would be hit by halftime. After Carter proceeded to record 7 receptions on 9 targets for 40 yards receiving in that game, you’d assume that in Week Two oddsmakers would buy into Carter being the lead back (for now) in New York… and you’d be wrong.
So until the books adjust or Carter loses his role as a starter, we’ll keep coming back to his receiving props. Carter excels as a pass catcher and projects to see plenty of targets with his team as a 6.5/7 point underdog. Joe Flacco is set to get the start against the Browns in Week Two, so we can expect him to continue looking Carter’s way in passing situations like he did last week.
Darrell Henderson Jr. (Rams) over 57.5 yards rushing
Despite the Rams’ poor showing in Week One, they should be in control of this game and looking to bleed the clock with their ground attack in the fourth quarter. While I expect Cam Akers to be more of a factor than last week, Henderson has earned the lead role until further notice.
The Bills front seven was dominant against the Rams in Week One where Henderson managed 47 yards on the ground. Against a soft Atlanta front in Week Two, Henderson should see plenty of running lanes while the Falcons desperately try to stop Cooper Kupp from shredding their secondary.
Mike Gesicki (Dolphins) under 22.5 yards receiving
It was tough sledding for Mike Gesicki in Week One. A 1 catch for 1 yard receiving line in a game where he saw a single target is a poor way to start the season when you’re in a contract year. Unfortunately for Gesicki, his low usage last week is not a fluke.
While a drop-off in targets was to be expected after the team added Tyreek Hill to the mix, there’s a deeper issue for Gesicki. Miami installed a new offense over the summer, and it’s not exactly one that fits Gesicki’s skill set. He’s being asked to block far more than he ever has, and on the plays that he does run routes, he is no longer attacking the seams or acting as a de facto slot receiver.
In Miami’s new passing attack, Gesicki is an afterthought and won’t see high yardage totals outside of garbage time.
