By Andrew Doherty
After starting Week Three 2-0 on NFL props from Thursday Night Football, it’s time to keep the profits rolling in. As always, I advise shopping around for the best lines possible. Here are the rest of the plays I’m on for Week Three:
Michael Carter over 2.5 receptions
If it ain’t broke, don’t fix it. After hitting on Michael Carter receiving props the last two weeks, I’m going back to the well on this play and I’ll continue to do so every week until the books adjust or Carter’s role diminishes.
Oddsmakers continue to treat the Jets backfield as if it belongs exclusively to Breece Hall, which it undoubtedly will one day… but that day isn’t today. Carter has amassed 14 targets in two games and is going to continue to be an active pass catcher as long as Joe Flacco is starting at quarterback. He’s a favorite among coaches too, so there is no reason to believe his playing time will suddenly decrease.
They say good things come in threes, and my Michael Carter overs are 2-0 on the year.
Tee Higgins anytime TD +130
How often can you find a true alpha wide receiver with a great matchup at plus money to score a touchdown? At 6’4” Higgins is a massive red zone target who often sees single coverage against an opponent’s number two cornerback due to the added attention given to teammate Ja’Marr Chase.
After leaving their season opener with a concussion, Higgins hit double-digit targets in Week Two and found the endzone. This week Higgins faces a Jets defense that has allowed 54 points through two games this season.
It’s a perfect get-right game for quarterback Joe Burrow and the Bengals passing attack, which will lead to plenty of opportunities for Higgins to hit paydirt.
Kyle Pitts over 3.5 receptions
After posting historic receiving numbers during his rookie campaign, Pitts has had a slow start to his sophomore season. Now, it’s time to take advantage as he gets an enticing matchup in Week Three against a vulnerable Seattle defense. It’s important to understand why Pitts has fallen well short of expectations through two weeks.
He had a tough matchup with plenty of targets in Week One, but saw only 3 targets last week against the Rams. The reason for his lack of targets? Double coverage. The Rams defense made it a point to take Pitts away but in doing so allowed rookie wideout Drake London to have a breakout game. With another legitimate playmaking threat emerging on Atlanta’s offense, teams won’t be able to simply game plan around stopping Pitts.
Atlanta’s head coach is also taking a ton of heat in the media over the lack of production and targets for Pitts, and as the old saying goes, the squeaky wheel gets the grease.
Marquise Brown under 5.5 receptions
To this point in his career, Brown has never been a player that commands high volume. He’s not known for being particularly efficient, either. Despite being a boom or bust player who relies on big, explosive plays he did record 6 receptions last week on 11 targets.
However, I’m banking on that being due to overtime more so than extra targets for Brown being a part of the weekly game plan. It’s also very likely that Brown will draw coverage from Jalen Ramsey more often than not.
Brown won’t be able to hide from Ramsey in the slot, as the Rams have shown they won’t shy away from moving Ramsey inside.
Mark Andrews under 60.5 yards receiving
The Patriots have a treasure trove of versatile safeties that they frequently deploy as tight end stoppers. On top of that, head coach Bill Belichick’s defensive game plan typically begins by making his opponents “play left-handed” by taking away their best player, which in this case is clearly Andrews.
This play will be one to monitor on Sunday morning, however, as versatile safety Kyle Dugger is listed as questionable to suit up for the Patriots.
