By Andrew Doherty
Here. We. Go.
The Divisional Round is one of the best weekends of the year for football fans. It’s also one of the more profitable weekends in the NFL season for sportsbooks. As the number of games each week declines, the efficiency on each prop/line increases. There are still some market inefficiencies to exploit however, and luckily for you I’ve gone through the props for the entire slate in search of the best value. Here’s what I like for Saturday:
Travis Etienne over 17.5 receiving yards
Etienne is one of the leagues most explosive backs and is facing a Chiefs defense that has surrendered the 2nd most explosive passing plays to running backs, allowing 7 receptions of 20+ yards to opposing backfields. The Kansas City defense allows a league worst 49.2 receiving yards per game to running backs along with 7.8 receptions per game which ranks 2nd highest in the league. While Etienne doesn’t catch a ton of passes (35 on the year) he has been efficient when he does, averaging 9.0 yards per catch and a 10.2 YAC/REC rate. With 2 of the worst coverage linebackers in the league matching up against Etienne on Saturday, he’s in a prime spot to pass this 17.5 yard total on single play.
Daniel Jones under 217.5 passing yards
Jones has passed for over 300 yards in 2 of his last 3 games and that has inflated his passing prop line this week, despite both of those 300 yard performances coming against the abysmal Vikings pass defense. Jones has failed to surpass the 217.5 mark in 12 games this year – and now he’s facing arguably the best secondary in football. The Eagles have stifled opposing quarterbacks this season, with only Dak Prescott and Kyler Murray exceeding 222 yards passing against them. Jones and the Giants have been this years Cinderella story, but that story is coming to an abrupt end on Saturday.
Miles Sanders over 64.5 rushing yards
I’ll start by stating the obvious: the Giants are terrible against the run. When you take into account that the Giants will want to drop as many players into coverage as possible to attempt to slow the Eagles passing attack and rarely (if ever) stack the box, it starts painting a very positive picture for Miles Sanders projected rushing production. Sanders, who had 144 rushing yards on 17 carries when these teams faced off back in Week 14, will also benefit from stud offensive lineman Lane Johnson retuning to action.
