By Andrew Doherty
After three full weeks of NFL football, we have a decent sample size to look through for each team and can feel comfortable going with a larger volume of bets. The Thursday Night game got the ball rolling for Week Four and has us 1-0 on props for the week heading into Sunday. Here are the rest of my plays for the week:
Best NFL Player Props for Week 4
Najee Harris under 67.5 yards rushing
Harris and the Steelers porous offensive line have really struggled to get the run going this season. Harris has only topped 50 yards rushing once this season, and is now seeing undrafted rookie running back Jaylen Warren start to eat into his volume. Led by Quinnen Williams, the Jets run defense is solid and is unlikely to be exploited by a weak Steelers offensive line.
Mark Andrews under 5.5 receptions
Andrews is coming off back-to-back monster games against New England and Miami. However, Miami’s pass defense has been lackluster in 2022 and New England was without safety Kyle Dugger, their tight end stopper. Buffalo’s defense features linebacker/coverage specialist Matt Milano, who projects to be tasked with covering Andrews for most of the day. With the Bills dominant pass rush likely to be harassing Lamar Jackson in the backfield all day long, I don’t see Andrews benefiting from the same high volume he’s seen over the last two weeks.
Rhamondre Stevenson over 13.5 yards receiving
Stevenson has not only taken over most of the passing game work for New England, he’s quietly creeping towards RB1 usage. After seeing 5 targets last week, his role as a pass catcher projects to expand even further with backup quarterback Brian Hoyer running the offense. Backups tend to favor shorter, higher percentage throws to running backs and tight ends. With the Packers likely to dare Hoyer to beat them through the air, Stevenson could be in store for a season-high in targets on Sunday.
Courtland Sutton over 4.5 receptions
Not much is working for Russell Wilson and the Broncos on offense so far this season, but one of the few things that has looked good is the Russ to Sutton connection. Sutton has recorded 15 catches on 21 targets over the past two weeks and now gets an enticing matchup with a suspect Raiders secondary. Sutton should hit this over with ease.
Cooper Kupp over 7.5 receptions
Since teaming up with Matthew Stafford, Kupp has pretty much been a lock for double-digit targets every game. This week against a stout 49ers defense, I don’t expect the Rams complimentary pass catchers to have much success getting open, which should funnel even more targets to Kupp. Head coach Sean McVay likely knows this and will find creative ways to scheme Kupp open early and often.
Treylon Burks over 3.5 receptions
Last week Burks saw a season high in snaps and routes run. Offensive Coordinator Todd Downing said he wants to not only get Burks more involved in the offense, but that he wants to emphasize getting him the ball in space to take advantage of his run-after-catch ability. Translation: They’re scheming up short, high percentage throws for Burks. If Todd Downing is a man of his word, Burks will have no problem hitting this over.
Saquon Barkley over 3.5 receptions
Between losing Sterling Shepard for the season, Kenny Golladay being dust, and Kadarius Toney still not healthy enough to play, Saquon is the whole offense right now for the Giants. Barkley has already recorded 13 receptions on the year and projects to see his target share climb even higher this week. Against a soft Bears defense, I can’t see Saquon not smashing this over.
