By Scott Kacsmar
With the NBA’s 2022-23 regular season tipping off on October 18th, one of the top awards for bettors will be the Rookie of the Year (ROTY) winner.
Toronto forward Scottie Barnes won the award last season. He was listed at +1400 odds, tied for the fifth best, going into the opener last October. Barnes won the award by just 15 points over Cleveland’s Evan Mobley (+1000). It was the smallest voting margin in the 19 years that this voting format began in the 2002-03 season.
Could we be in store for another close race this season? The leaderboard has already been shaken up after Thunder rookie Chet Holmgren, the No. 2 pick in the draft, was diagnosed with a Lisfranc foot injury that will sideline him for the season. He was the second-leading favorite at the time, but Orlando’s No. 1 overall pick Paolo Banchero remains the favorite at many sportsbooks.
Here are five of the best bets for NBA Rookie of the Year as we start September.
The Favorite: Paolo Banchero, Orlando Magic Forward (+200)
No one has won ROTY more often than the No. 1 pick in the draft, doing so 21 times. But Ben Simmons was the last winner in 2018, and the No. 2 pick has won it a respectable 16 times. We know that will not happen this year with the injury to Holmgren.
Banchero was the leading scorer (17.2 points per game) and leading rebounder (7.8 rebounds per game) in his only season with Duke. It earned him ACC Rookie of the Year honors.
The main reason to like Banchero in Orlando is that he joins a team that was 30th in Offensive Rating and 29th in points per game. This offense needs a consistent scorer in the worst way as no one averaged 17 points per game last season. The Magic are very young and will have a chance to grow together with Banchero, but it’s not like he has much competition to be the leading scorer. Cole Anthony has yet to shoot 40% from the field in his first two seasons. Franz Wagner had one 30-point game as a rookie last year.
Of the last 11 ROTY winners, only Luka Doncic (21.2) averaged at least 20 points per game. That scoring standard has dropped for rookies, so Banchero could win this if he has in the upper teens in points per game. Scottie Barnes only had 15.3 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 3.5 assists per game – numbers certainly in Banchero’s grasp.
The Best Pick: Jaden Ivey, Detroit Pistons Guard (+500)
If I was betting today, I would pick Jaden Ivey, who is currently tied with Keegan Murray for the second-best odds at +500. The Purdue guard drafted No. 5 overall joins an interesting cast of youth in Detroit as the Pistons hope to be on the right track back to the playoffs.
Some thought Cade Cunningham, the No. 1 pick in 2021, had a shot at ROTY last year, but he came on too late in the season after a rough start. Now when the Pistons can pair him with Ivey, they make for an exciting backcourt.
Ivey improved well in his second season at Purdue, increasing his FG% from .399 to .460 and his 3P% from .258 to .358. He averaged 17.3 points per game and a figure like that in the NBA would give him ROTY consideration.
Guards have also had a bit of a monopoly on ROTY in the new-look NBA. Since Chris Paul won the award in 2006, it has gone to a guard 13 times in 17 seasons. Guards Luka Doncic, Ja Morant, and LaMelo Ball won the award prior to Barnes last season.
We may not want to put Ivey on that pedestal yet, but I like the situation around him in Detroit better than Banchero’s outlook with Orlando this season.
Don’t Forget About: Jabari Smith, Houston Rockets Forward (+600)
Auburn forward Jabari Smith has had quite the year from being the odds-on favorite to go No. 1 in the draft to ultimately winding up in Houston as the No. 3 pick. Maybe that will serve him well with a chip on his shoulder, as could not being the favorite for ROTY.
Smith only played one year at Auburn, but he impressed with 16.9 points per game. At 6’10”, he had no problem hitting 42% from three-point territory. The Rockets were another offensively flawed team, but they did play at the second-fastest pace last season. Jalen Green, the No. 2 pick in 2021, had some ROTY buzz after going on a scoring tear late in the season with six 30-point games in his last seven appearances.
But the Rockets moved leading scorer Christian Wood to the Dallas Mavericks, so Smith has the chance to step right in and fill that void as a rookie with big minutes and production as a scorer and rebounder.
Remember, playing for a winning team is not a factor in ROTY. If anything, it could hurt as a rookie outplaying a team with established starters would be difficult. LaMelo Ball (33-39), Ja Morant (34-39), Luka Doncic (33-49), Karl-Anthony Towns (29-53), Andrew Wiggins (16-66), Michael Carter-Williams (19-63), Damien Lillard (33-49), and Kyrie Irving (21-45) all won ROTY on losing teams since 2012.
Situational Pick: Bennedict Mathurin, Indiana Pacers Guard (+1100)
If you want a dark horse in the race, then look for someone in a situation to get instant minutes and production on a rebuilding team. Bennedict Mathurin in Indiana is one of those situations after the team made the Arizona guard the No. 6 pick in the draft.
The Pacers are in a rebuild after moving on from leading scorer Malcolm Brogdon, a former ROTY himself. The team already moved Domantas Sabonis and Caris Levert last season. That just leaves three-point specialist Buddy Hield and Myles Turner, the latter having never cracked 15.0 points per game in any season of his career.
Production must come somewhere in Indiana, and Mathurin has three-point shooting ability and does not lack in confidence for a rookie. He went viral for comments this summer about LeBron James needing to show that he is better than Mathurin in a future matchup. While a long way from that moment, which LeBron has likely stored in his brain, Mathurin averaged 19.3 points per game in the Summer League.
He won’t hit those numbers in Indiana this year, but something close could be enough to win ROTY.
The Longshot: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder Guard (+4200)
What if the third lottery pick by the Thunder in the 2022 draft turns out to be the most valuable one this season? The Chet Holmgren injury is very disappointing, but it also presents an opportunity for Jalen Williams, the 12th pick in the draft.
Keep in mind that in the modern NBA draft era (1966-present), the ROTY winner has been a top 10 draft pick in all but four seasons:
- 1974-75: Forward/Guard Jamaal Wilkes, 11th overall
- 1987-88: Guard Mark Jackson, 18th overall
- 2013-14: Guard Michael Carter-Williams, 11th overall
- 2016-17: Guard Malcolm Brogdon, 36th overall (only second-round pick to win)
So, it would not be without recent precedent for such a player to win. Williams faces long odds, but he improved each year at Santa Clara. He averaged 18.0 points per game last season while shooting 51.3% from the field and 39.6% from three.
The Thunder were dead last in scoring last year and did not get 60 starts from any player during a 24-win season. That is why Holmgren was so needed, but between Ousmane Dieng and Williams, I think Williams has the better rookie season for the Thunder.
