By Robert Sanchez
With the dust settling from the Wild Card Round this weekend, eight teams remain in the hunt for the World Series trophy. That hunt continues on Tuesday as all eight teams are in action for Game 1 of their respective Division Series.
But for my best prop bets of the day, I’m heading to the Bronx where the New York Yankees host the Cleveland Guardians at 7:37 p.m. I have one pitcher prop and one hitter prop that I like for that game and I’m sure you’re all on the edge of your seats waiting in anticipation.
So, without further ado, here are my best prop bets:
CLE @ NYY, ALDS Game 1, Gerrit Cole o6.5 Ks +120 (Bet365)
I might be going against the grain here as the Guardians struck out the fewest times in the major leagues this season with just 1,122, but with the Yankees ace on the mound, I think this number is a shade too low.
Cole has struck out seven or more in 21 of his 33 starts this season and went over 6.5 strikeouts in 12 of 16 home starts, including once against Cleveland where he struck out nine over 6.2 innings. Overall, the right-hander has struck out 257 batters in 200.2 innings this season, setting a new franchise single-season strikeout record for the Yanks.
The 32-year-old has always been a strikeout pitcher, even dating back to his days on the Pittsburgh Pirates, but really stepped it up when he pitched for the Houston Astros and now the Yankees.
This season, Cole has been especially deadly in the strikeout department at home with a 12.1 K/9 rate. Away from Yankee Stadium, that number drops slightly to 11.0 K/9.
After a great first half, Cole has struggled in the second half as he has a 4-6 record and 4.12 ERA in 14 starts since the All-Star break. However, those struggles haven’t taken away from his ability to strike hitters out as he still has an 11.3 K/9 rate in the second half (down just slightly from his 11.7 K/9 rate in the first half).
In fact, even though September/October were his worst months of the season as far as ERA is concerned, Cole actually had his highest K/9 rate of any month this season at 13.3. A big reason for Cole’s inflated ERA lately has been his inability to keep the ball in the yard — which I’ll get to later — but he continues to be a strikeout-machine otherwise.
The last time Cole pitched was on Oct. 4 which gives him six days of rest before his start on Tuesday. That shouldn’t be a hindrance for him, though, as he has a 12.9 K/9 rate on six days of rest in four such starts this season.
Even though neither team has announced their lineups for tonight, I can almost guarantee Jose Trevino will get the start at catcher over Kyle Higashioka as Trevino has stepped up as the primary catcher for New York this season and earned himself an All-Star appearance. That’s important because with Trevino behind the plate, Cole has pitched much better and has 188 strikeouts in 146.2 innings.
And despite sweeping the Tampa Bay Rays in their Wild Card Series, the Guardians struck out 19 times in their Game 2 win, albeit in 15 innings, so it’s not like they can’t strike out.
Hopefully Cole can put his last postseason start where he went 2.0 innings against the Boston Red Sox in the 2021 AL Wild Card Game — striking out just three hitters — behind him. Prior to that start, Cole had gone over this number in every postseason start with the Yankees.
CLE @ NYY, ALDS Game 1, Jose Ramirez HR +550 (DraftKings, Bet365)
On the flip side, I’m going with Ramirez to go yard in this one because of his numbers against Cole and his numbers at Yankee Stadium.
In 25 games at Yankee Stadium, Ramirez has nine home runs to go along with an insane .437/.505/.839 slashline. With that pace over 162 games, Ramirez would hit around 58 home runs in the Bronx. Just for reference, Aaron Judge, who set the American League record in home runs this season with 62, is +265 (FanDuel) to go yard tonight.
Ramirez is also about the only hitter in Cleveland’s lineup that has hit Cole well in his career. In 16 at-bats, the 30-year-old is 5-for-16 with two home runs and a triple against the right-hander.
Remember when I mentioned before that Cole hasn’t been able to keep the ball in the ballpark this season? Well, a lot of that damage has come from the third spot in the lineup as Cole has allowed eight home runs to the No. 3 hitter. That’s great news because Ramirez has been a stalwart in the Guardians lineup in the three spot, hitting there all season.
Not only has Ramirez loved hitting at Yankee Stadium, he has always enjoyed more success away from Progressive Field and has handled right-handed pitching better than left-handed pitching. He also finished the regular season strong, slashing .321/.367/.500 with one home run over his last seven games and hit a home run in Game 1 against the Rays in the Wild Card Series.
Although Ramirez hasn’t always shown up in the postseason, I’m hoping playing in his favorite stadium to hit in, against a pitcher who he’s hit well against unearths the best version of himself.
Game 1 Prediction: Guardians win 4-3
