By Robert Sanchez
Welcome back! Can you believe it’s already the penultimate day of the regular season? What a fun and crazy ride it’s been. This regular season has seen twists and turns including managers getting fired, playoff droughts being broken, players chasing history, surprising debuts and final farewells, but it all comes down to these last two days.
Even though the 12-team playoff is officially set, with the Philadelphia Phillies the final team to clinch a postseason berth last night, the seeding — in both leagues — remains up in the air which is why these last couple of games are still so important for a few teams.
For other teams, the last week before the playoffs begin is a time to rest key players which, in the gambling world, can either cause some sketchiness or be used as an advantage. With that being said, I’m going with two pitcher props for tonight. Don’t worry, there will be plenty of opportunities to bet home run prop bets during the playoffs, I promise.
So, for one final time in the 2022 regular season, here are my best player props:
ATL @ MIA, 6:40 p.m., Braxton Garrett o4.5 Ks +100 (FanDuel)
It’s funny, last week I took Garrett to go under 5.5 strikeouts at +105 against the Milwaukee Brewers and it cashed easily after he struck out two in four innings. This week, I’m taking Garrett to go over 4.5 strikeouts, again at plus money, because I think the books are overreacting.
If you remember, I took Garrett to go under his strikeout total last week mostly because he was pitching on the road. Prior to his start against the Brewers, Garrett had a 7.3 K/9 rate in eight road starts and that number went down after striking out just two over four innings his last time out.
However, in seven home starts the lefty has an 11.4 K/9 rate and has gone over 4.5 strikeouts in five of those starts. On Tuesday, he’ll be facing the Atlanta Braves who are second in the National League in strikeouts with 1,478, behind only the Pittsburgh Pirates (1,486).
It’s true that last week when I faded Garrett, I pointed to the statistic that he has struggled to strike out teams that are equal to or above .500 (11.7 K/9 against <.500 vs. 5.3 K/9 against =>.500). And while the Braves certainly are a quality team, their fatal flaw is striking out a ton.
Garrett faced Atlanta on Aug. 14 and went six innings scoreless innings, giving up five hits, three walks and striking out two. I think Tuesday should be a different story, especially after fellow lefty Jesus Luzardo struck out 12 Braves hitters on Monday night in six scoreless innings.
PHI @ HOU, 8:10 p.m., Ranger Suarez o3.5 Ks -122 (FanDuel)
In his first season as a full-time starter, Suarez has answered the bell for the Philadelphia Phillies, going 10-6 with a 3.37 ERA and 127 strikeouts in 152.1 innings. What’s even more impressive is that Suarez has actually been better on the road than he’s been at home this season.
In 15 road starts, the right-hander is 6-2 with a 2.69 ERA and 75 strikeouts in 87.0 innings. On Tuesday, Suarez will get another chance to shove on the road when he faces the Houston Astros at MinuteMaid Park.
Now, even though the Astros are the second toughest team in the majors to strike out this season, Suarez has gone over this number in 23 of his 28 starts, including 14 straight.
Earlier this week, Houston’s manager Dusty Baker told the media that even though his team has the No. 1 seed locked up, he doesn’t plan on resting his starters during the final week of the season for the “integrity of the game”. While I think that decision is incredibly misguided, I also think — now that the Phillies have officially clinched their postseason berth — that Baker might go back on that plan.
If he does, players like Jose Altuve, Alex Bregman and Yordan Alvarez will not be in the lineup and we’ll instead see some of the Astros’ bench players in the lineup. Without their best hitters in the lineup, I think the chances of Suarez striking out four or more go way up.
But even if Baker makes good on that promise to not rest his key players, I still think Suarez can get over this incredibly low number. Not only will he be pitching on the road where he’s shined all season, but during the second half of the season Suarez has also been lights out, going 3-1 with a 2.50 ERA over 12 starts where he’s struck out 59.
Another interesting thing to note is Suarez will be facing off against Justin Verlander. Why is that interesting? Well, if Verlander pitches like the ace that he’s been his entire career and doesn’t give up many runs, that bodes well for Suarez who has a 2.25 ERA when the Phillies score 0-2 runs.
At the end of the day, I just think this number is too low and even though I got burned last week betting on a player prop at minus odds, I think Suarez gets the job done here.
