Best MLB Player Prop Bets for Today

By Robert Sanchez

Sound the alarms, call the press and somebody wake up the Pope because I finally won a bet! Yes, it’s true, mired in an 0-9 skid, I decided to go back to the drawing board and try something different and on Tuesday, I was rewarded.

I gave out two pitcher props on here (both at plus money) and went 1-1 for some slight profit, but profit is profit baby! So, now that the ball is rolling once again, let’s try and keep it going. Since the MLB slate isn’t huge today (10 games) and nobody jumps off the page as potential home run candidates, I’m going to stick with what’s worked and go with two more pitcher props.

Here you go:

MIA @ MIL, 7:40 p.m., Braxton Garrett u5.5 Ks +105 (DraftKings)

I’m playing with fire a bit here considering the Milwaukee Brewers have struck out the fifth most times (1,397) in the majors this season, but that’s likely why the odds on this number are plus money. Meanwhile, Garrett has struck out 81 hitters in 79.1 innings this season as the Marlins appear to have yet another quality young starter in their rotation.

However, those numbers don’t tell the whole story. While it’s true that the Brewers have struggled against left-handed pitching more so than right-handed pitching this season, it’s the lefty Garrett who I think will struggle to strike hitters out tonight.

First off, take Garrett’s home and road splits. In seven home starts this season, Garrett has an 11.4 K/9 rate. That number drops off considerably to just 7.3 K/9 in eight road starts for the southpaw. In fact, of those eight starts away from home, Garrett has gone over 5.5 strikeouts in only two of them — once against the putrid Pittsburgh Pirates and another against the lowly Cincinnati Reds.

Which brings me to my next point. Against teams below .500 this season, Garrett has looked unhittable with an 11.7 K/9 rate (63 strikeouts in 48.2 innings). On the flip side, when facing teams equal to or above .500, Garrett has a much more pedestrian 5.3 K/9 rate (18 strikeouts in 30.2 innings).

Now, it’s normal for bad teams to strike out more often than good teams — that’s what bad teams do. But when you look at the good teams that Garrett has faced this season, some of them include the Atlanta Braves and San Francisco Giants, both of whom are in the top five in the league in strikeouts.

In both of those games, Garrett failed to strikeout more than five batters. Those games were also at home where Garrett excels at striking hitters out. So, combine the road start with playing a good team and you get a low strikeout total from the second-year starting pitcher.

Considering Garrett has only struck out six or more in a game in six out of his 15 starts this season (two of eight on the road) and I can get this bet at +105, I’m taking that bet ten out of ten times.

COL @ SF, 9:45 p.m., Ryan Feltner u15.5 outs recorded -120 (DraftKings)

Every now and then it’s okay to take a prop bet at minus money. Minus odds are like cookies, they’re good once in a while but you don’t want to take them every day or you’ll go broke (and fat). Well, I haven’t had a cookie in quite some time so here I go putting my hand into the cookie jar.

To get over this number, Feltner would have to go at least 5.1 innings, something he’s only done in seven out of his 17 starts this season. In nine road starts, Feltner has gone at least 5.1 innings just three times so we’re already trending in the right direction.

The reason Feltner doesn’t generally go deep into games is because the more times hitters face him, the easier he becomes to hit.

Against Feltner as a starter, hitters are slashing just .245/.314/.360 in their first plate appearance. However, the second and third time through the lineup has been Feltner’s kryptonite. In their second plate appearance against the right-hander, hitters are slashing .291/.347/.575 and in their third plate appearance, those numbers are .308/.373/.539.

Whether that stark difference is because he gets tired as the game goes on or because his pitches become more familiar to the hitters remains to be seen, but frankly I don’t care what the reason is.

Feltner’s ERA and numbers by inning also tell an interesting story. Even though he’s better the first time through a lineup, Feltner is still susceptible to get scored on early, especially in the first inning with his 5.29 ERA this season. While the Giants aren’t offensive juggernauts, they do rank in the top half of the league in runs scored in the first inning at home this season. If San Francisco can jump on Feltner early and make him throw a lot of pitches, his odds at going more than five innings go down drastically.

I think the most interesting inning to look at, though, is the sixth inning. In just six innings pitched in the sixth inning this season, Feltner owns a 10.50 ERA while hitters are slashing .357/.438/.750. If I know that, the Rockies certainly know it as well which is why I think the most they’ll let their young starter go is five innings — and that’s if he doesn’t get shelled before that which is entirely possible.

Finally, in five starts on five days of rest, Feltner is 0-3 with a 5.79 ERA. With so many possible reasons why Feltner won’t get past five innings tonight, I have to take this number even if the odds are -120.