By Robert Sanchez
Welcome back everybody to another edition of my best MLB player props of the day. In the midst of losing my last nine home run prop bets, I’ve decided to take a break from them for the time being. I won’t be abandoning them completely as the feeling I get when one hits is unmatched, but the feeling of losing nine in a row has definitely knocked me down a peg and my confidence is shaken.
Have no fear because as they say in show business, the show must go on. That’s why I’ll be pivoting to some pitcher props for tonight. If you remember, I took a couple of pitcher props earlier this month and they both cashed with ease. I’m hoping the same will be said about today’s picks which will help give me the confidence to tackle home run prop bets once again. And don’t worry, even though these aren’t home run prop bets, I still found a couple of bets that are plus money.
Enough talk, here are the picks:
MIA @ NYM, 7:10 p.m., Pablo Lopez u16.5 outs +100 (DraftKings)
Citi Field has been a house of horrors for Lopez ever since he broke into the league in 2018. In fact, in four career starts in Queens, the right-hander owns a 9.33 ERA in 18.1 innings which is an average of just under 4.2 innings per start. To get over 16.5 outs, Lopez would have to pitch at minimum 5.2 innings which I simply don’t see happening.
For starters, Lopez has gone over this number in just 15 of his 30 starts this season and seven of 14 starts on the road. Since the All-Star break, Lopez has went at least 5.2 innings six of 12 times, with four of those coming at home where he’s historically been a better pitcher.
While Lopez looked like a potential Cy Young Award candidate in the first half, he’s come crashing back down to earth in the second half which has usually been the case with him. In 27 career starts after the All-Star break, Lopez is 4-12 with a 5.23 ERA in 141 innings for an average of just under five innings per start. Lopez appears to really break down in the final month(s) of the season as his 5.72 ERA in September/October is the worst of any month of his.
Another reason I like this play is because of Lopez’s struggles in the first inning and the Mets’ knack for scoring in the first inning, especially at home. In his career, Lopez owns a 4.75 ERA in the first inning as hitters are slashing .283/.344/.504 with an .848 OPS. The Mets’ offense is third in the majors this season at scoring at home, behind offensive juggernauts the Los Angeles Dodgers and the New York Yankees.
But it’s not just that the Mets score in the first inning, it’s the fact that they see the most pitches in the first inning out of every team in the majors. Starting at the top of the order, the Mets’ lineup grinds out at-bats and makes the pitcher work from beginning to end. They foul off tough pitches, work deep counts, take their walks and don’t strike out often either.
If the Mets do what they’ve done all season, which I expect they will against Lopez who has never quite figured them out, Lopez’s pitch count will rise quickly which will force Don Mattingly to pull his starter and go to the bullpen.
And for what it’s worth, I also really like the Mets to score in the first inning (+250, DraftKings).
OAK @ LAA, 9:38 p.m., James Kaprielian o4.5 Ks +110 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Bet365)
On the surface, this play might look like a reach as Kaprielian has gone over this number in just six of his 24 starts this season. However, if we delve a little deeper the numbers do add up.
First of all, he’s facing the Los Angeles Angels who lead the world in strikeouts with 1,473 this season. The next closest team in the American League is the Texas Rangers (1,347).
And while it’s true that Kaprielian isn’t necessarily a strikeout pitcher as he’s only struck out 86 batters in 122 innings pitched this season, he’s pitched very well against the Angels and has struck out 10 in 10.1 innings against them this year.
In his career, the right-hander has 31 strikeouts in 28 innings pitched over five starts against the Halos and is 3-1 against them with a 1.93 ERA. At Angel Stadium, which is where he’ll be pitching tonight, Kaprielian has 18 strikeouts in 17 innings pitched spanning three starts.
Coming off of his best start of the year, one that saw him go a season-high seven innings against the Seattle Mariners, I expect Kaprielian to use that outing as a springboard for his start tonight versus a team with which he has had a ton of success against. I wouldn’t be surprised to see him go at least six innings which gives him more opportunities to strike out more hitters.
In the second half over his career, Kaprielian has shown a propensity to strike out more batters, too. In fact, in the months of September and October, the righty has a 9.1 K/9 which is easily the highest of any other month.
Will it be close? Probably. But at +110, I will happily take the over and see if he can continue his recent hot stretch on the mound against a team who he’s owned.
