By Robert Sanchez
It’s a day that ends in -y so you already know I have a home run prop bet for you all. I’ve been scuffling lately as I haven’t hit my last eight home run prop bets which just goes to show how difficult it really is to cash these bets. But that streak ends today because I think I’ve found a winner in one of the early afternoon games.
So, without further ado, here’s who I like to go deep today:
MIN @ KC, 2:10 p.m., Nick Gordon +575 (Bet365)
What a perfect time to fade Royals’ pitcher Jonathan Heasley who’s pitching at home today. The second-year pitcher with just 21 career starts has yet to show he can keep the ball in the yard whether it’s at home, on the road, first half, second half, during the day or at night. But since he’s pitching at home, let’s look at his numbers at Kauffman Stadium.
In 11 career starts at home, Heasley owns a 6.66 ERA and has allowed 11 home runs in 51.1 innings which is a pace of around 40 home runs in roughly 200 innings. In day games, Heasley has given up 10 homers in 40 innings over nine starts with a 6.75 ERA which puts him on pace to give up an astounding 50 home runs in 200 innings.
While Heasley hasn’t been good against either lefties or righties in his short career, he’s especially susceptible to giving up dingers to left-handed hitters as 13 of the 20 home runs he’s given up have been against lefties. This is great news considering Gordon bats from the left side.
Another reason I like this bet is because Heasley has really struggled against the No. 3 hitter (among others) in the lineup. Against the No. 3 hitter this season, the 25-year old has allowed a slash line of .467/.500/.933 and six home runs which is practically unheard of. Today, Gordon is batting third.
All of these numbers are even more glaring when you consider MJ Melendez will be catching Heasley today. Heasley has been particularly bad with Melendez behind the dish and in just 9 career starts with that pitcher-catcher tandem, Heasley has allowed nine home runs in 43.1 innings.
I could stop here and that would be reason enough to back Gordon to go long today but let’s take a look at his numbers. First of all, Gordon has been scorching hot at the plate for the better part of two months now. Since the All-Star break, the 26-year old is slashing .301/.350/.506 with five home runs, 17 doubles and a triple in 166 at-bats.
After a slow start to his career both in the average and power department, Gordon has really picked it up as of late. Just in the last seven games, Gordon has hit two home runs while slashing .318/.385/.682. He’s also hit righties much better than lefties in his career with all but one of his 13 career home runs coming off of right-handed pitching.
Lastly, Gordon has completely owned Kansas City pitching in his career slashing .329/.352/.588 with four home runs in 27 games. In 14 games at Kauffman Stadium, the speedster has one career home run while batting .348 and sporting a .919 OPS.
His odds to record a hit are -160 (DraftKings, BetMGM, Bet365) which is definitely a safe bet for all of the reasons mentioned above. However, considering his recent power surge and Heasley’s propensity to give up the long ball, I absolutely love him to go deep today at +575.
Jake Cave at +750 (DraftKings, Bet365) to go deep also offers some pretty good value if you’re feeling extra greedy on this Thursday afternoon. Good luck!
