By Robert Sanchez
Hello everyone and welcome back to another edition of me telling you who I like to hit a home run. If you’ve been keeping track you know that I laid an absolute egg the last time I gave out home run prop bets. I tried going for the kill shot with six players to hit a home run and I went an abysmal 0-6. But don’t worry, I learned my lesson: moderation is key. However, I will say most of the players I chose had great games with most of them likely going over their total base number.
Nevertheless, that’s all in the past and much like baseball players, you need to have a short memory in the home run prop business. So, with that said, let me get into who I like to go yard today.
ARI @ LAD, 3:10 p.m., Trea Turner +370 (FanDuel), Justin Turner +420 (FanDuel)
That’s right, I’m going with the two Turners on the Dodgers to go yard and here’s why. First of all, both of these hitters love hitting against Arizona. In just 50 games against the Diamondbacks, Trea Turner is slashing .358/.420/.632 with 12 home runs. His 1.053 OPS against Arizona is his best against any team he’s faced at least 10 times. As for Justin Turner, in 128 games against the Dbacks, he’s slashing .296/.376/.525 with 21 home runs.
Secondly, both of the Turners have been hitting the ball very well over their last seven games. Trea Turner is slashing .273/.294/.485 with a home run while Justin Turner is slashing an even better .357/.438/.714 with two home runs. In fact, in 14 September games, Justin Turner has slashed .392/.467/.784 with four home runs.
The two of them have also hit better at home this season. While Trea Turner is only slightly better at home than on the road, Justin Turner’s home and road splits are quite severe. In 44 fewer at-bats at home, Justin Turner has hit nine more home runs (11 versus 2) and has an OPS almost .200 points higher (.916 versus .725). He’s also hit much better during the day than at night this season with six of his 13 home runs coming in the afternoon in 170 less at-bats.
While Trea Turner has hit slightly worse during day games, he’s been incredible this season hitting in the leadoff spot with a slash line of .364/.394/.568 and four home runs in 88 at-bats.
Now let’s look at Arizona’s starting pitcher, Zach Davies. It’s been a tough year on the road for Davies as he’s allowed 14 home runs in 65 innings pitched away from Arizona this season. It’s also been a tale of two halves for the right-hander this season in the home run department. In 15 starts in the first half, Davies gave up 10 home runs in 80 innings. While that isn’t great, it’s much better than his 10 homers allowed in nine starts during the second half in 42 innings.
Of the 20 home runs Davies has given up this season, half of them have come against the 1 and 3 hitter in the lineup. And would you look at that? Trea Turner and Justin Turner are batting first and third in the Dodgers’ lineup today. Wonderful.
In four games against Los Angeles this season, Davies has allowed four home runs in 18.2 innings and against teams equal to or above .500 this year, Davies has given up 10 homers in 51.1 innings.
Davies is also a “finesse” pitcher who throws mostly sinkers and changeups which is great for both Trea and Justin Turner who have mashed against “finesse” pitchers in their careers.
