By Robert Sanchez
After splitting my two home run prop bets on Tuesday with Carlos Correa (+450) going yard and Luis Arraez (+1060) not, I’m now 3-2 on home run prop bets with these articles. Hopefully, you’ve found these articles insightful and my reasoning sound and if not, at the very least, I hope I’ve made you laugh once or twice.
Nevertheless, I’m back at it again tonight because the grind never stops. Tonight might be my biggest challenge to date, though, as I’m putting my record and knowledge on the line with a whopping six home run prop bets.
As you’re probably aware, I’m normally very selective when it comes to my home run prop bets. However, while picking six players to go long tonight might sound crazy, greedy or even just down-right stupid, all of these bets fit the criteria that all of my other home run prop bets have met and I don’t need to remind you that those have gone 3-2.
So, even though most of you will probably be watching Thursday Night Football tonight, make sure to place these so you can look at your phone every three minutes during the game to see if they’ve cashed or not. There’s no pressure to take all of them, but if you miss out on some winners I’ll be here to say I told you so.
But enough with the formalities, here’s who I like to go deep:
OAK @ HOU, 7:20 p.m., Yordan Alvarez +300 (FanDuel), Alex Bregman +420 (FanDuel), Trey Mancini +475 (DraftKings, Bet365)
I suppose it’s not that surprising that I’m picking three players on the Houston Astros to hit a home run considering they’ve hit the fifth most home runs in the majors this season and are second in the AL, behind only the New York Yankees. But that’s why I like these even more.
For starters, the Oakland A’s starting pitcher tonight is James Kaprielian which is great news if you’re a home run prop bet aficionado like myself. In his short career which spans 43 starts, Kaprielian has allowed 37 home runs in 232.0 innings pitched and 21 home runs over 126.2 innings pitched on the road.
Kaprielian was scratched from his last start which would’ve come on Friday, Sept. 9 with a cut on his middle finger. That’s important because although he missed the start, had he pitched that day, his turn in the rotation tonight would be coming on five days of rest. Why does that matter? Well, in his career, when Kaprielian has pitched on five days of rest he’s given up 21 home runs in 103.2 innings.
Since his injury was just a cut on his finger and he was a late scratch to pitch last Friday, I imagine he went through his normal routine for this start just like he would for any other start that he had five days of rest for and is, therefore, likely to give up home runs tonight.
Surprisingly, Kaprielian has a better record (a winning record, in fact) against teams equal to or above .500 than he does against teams below .500, but that hasn’t come at the expense of giving up home runs. In 104.1 of those such innings, the right-hander has allowed 17 home runs which is still far too many.
The fact that the game is at night and that Sean Murphy will be catching him are also very good indicators that he’ll give up some more home runs tonight. In 143.2 innings pitched at night, Kaprielian has allowed 27 homers and with Murphy behind the plate, he’s given up 34 dingers in just 183.1 innings.
The 3, 4 and 7 hitters are the ones that Kaprielian is most susceptible to get beat by as evidenced by the 20 homers he’s allowed to them in his career. Which brings me to the picks. Not only have Alvarez, Bregman and Mancini all gone deep at least once in their last seven games, they all have solid to exceptional numbers against the A’s.
I’ll start with Alvarez. I don’t have many hard-and-fast rules in life but one of them is bet Yordan Alvarez to hit a home run when he’s in left field. Normally a DH, in 99 career games in left field, Alvarez has hit an astonishing 33 home runs. If you compare that to the 60 homers he’s hit as a DH in 241 games, his pace as a left-fielder far exceeds his pace as a DH. Whenever Alvarez is in left field, do not walk, run to your nearest sportsbook and bet him to hit a home run.
Now Bregman. It’s actually startling how much better Bregman has been at home than on the road this season. In 31 fewer at-bats, the former No. 2 overall pick has hit double the amount of home runs as he has on the road this year.
After a pedestrian first half of the season, at least for his standards, Bregman has really picked it up in the second half, needing just one more home run to match his first half total in 137 less at-bats. He’s also killed righties this season, prefers hitting at night rather than during the day and has found a nice home in the cleanup spot.
Finally, Mancini. I won’t lie to you guys, Mancini is the hitter I’m least confident will go deep tonight but the thought of him hitting a home run in the seventh spot of the lineup and me not taking him makes me physically ill, so here he is. Still, he does have some good things going for him like the fact that he’s DHing tonight. In 193 career games as the DH, Mancini has hit 35 home runs.
Even better, the right-handed slugger loves, and I mean LOVES, hitting in the seventh hole. In just 40 career games, Mancini is slashing a ridiculous .333/.411/.715 with 13 home runs and a 1.127 OPS which are far and away his best numbers than any other position in the lineup.
PIT @ NYM, 7:20 p.m., Pete Alonso +340 (FanDuel), Daniel Vogelbach +550 (DraftKings, Bet365), Tyler Naquin +550 (DraftKings)
We now turn our attention to The Big Apple and the New York Mets. Fresh off of a sweep at the hands of the Chicago Cubs, the Mets, in particular the Mets’ offense, have been scuffling lately. That should all change with Pittsburgh Pirates’ start JT Brubaker on the mound tonight.
With a heinous 1-16 record on the road, Brubaker is just what the doctor ordered for the Mets. In 157.1 innings pitched away from PNC Park in his career, Brubaker has given up 27 home runs. The third-year starter has also really struggled in the second half of seasons, giving up 17 homers in just 80 innings.
Brubaker has faced the Mets twice before in his career and neither time went well for him as he has a 10.38 ERA while giving up three home runs. And if you’re ever going to take home run prop bets against Brubaker, make sure the team he’s facing is equal to or above .500 because man has he struggled against them in his career, allowing 34 home runs in 184.2 innings. While the Mets haven’t played like it lately, they are indeed above .500 and should have no problem continuing this trend.
Another big problem Brubaker has is pitching well when his team fails to score for him. In 25 starts where the Pirates scored 0-2 runs, Brubaker has given up 30 home runs in just 136.2 innings. With one of the worst offenses in baseball facing one of the better pitching staffs in the NL, I suspect Pittsburgh to struggle to score like they have all season and that doesn’t bode well for Brubaker.
Much like Kaprielian, Brubaker is vulnerable to certain spots in the order. His most notable weak spots are the 4, 5 and 8 hitters. Tonight, Alonso, Vogelbach and Naquin fill those spots which is why I’m riding them to hit home runs.
Alonso is New York’s biggest home run threat and after a recent power drought he has found his home run swing once again, hitting three home runs over his last seven games. He’s put the talk that he only hits home runs on the road to bed this season with 16 of his 35 home runs coming at Citi Field.
He’s also been a much better power hitter at night this season and has hit 27 home runs against righties this year. 20 of Alonso’s 35 home runs have come after the sixth inning so even if he doesn’t get it done against Brubaker he has a good shot at getting it done against the Pirates’ below-average bullpen.
The Mets traded for Vogelbach to be their left-handed DH because he absolutely destroys right-handed pitching. And even though he’s struggled mightily over his last 30 games, he does get an opportunity to face his old team and a pitching staff he should know very well.
I don’t want to call it a revenge game, but given his lack of production lately, Vogelbach must know this series in particular is a big deal for him to stay in good standing with his new team. Hopefully he gets it done early in the game because the second a lefty reliever comes into the game, he’s almost certainly going to get pinch-hit for.
Don’t look now but suddenly Naquin has gotten hot at the plate, slashing .286/.400/.524 with a home run over his last seven games. That home run came in Pittsburgh when the Mets visited the Pirates at home last week and I like him to burn his old NL Central rival once again. That’s because in 29 career games against the Pirates, Naquin has six home runs and an .851 OPS.
Much like Vogelbach, the lefty Naquin is in the starting lineup to face the right-handed pitcher. Over his career, Naquin owns a .279/.331/.475 slashline against righties and he has always been a better hitter at home and in the second half.
Combine all of these things with the fact that he’s in left field tonight where he’s hit 12 home runs in 49 career games — by far his best position hitting-wise — and I see a perfect storm brewing.
PIT @ NYM, 7:20 p.m., Eduardo Escobar o0.5 hits -165 (BetMGM)
I’ll keep this last one short, Escobar owns a .432/.469/.818 slashline against the Pirates with a 1.288 OPS in his career which is his best against any team in his career. He’s also been red-hot at the plate over his last 30 games and should be able to get at least one base knock tonight. His home run odds are +500 (FanDuel) which is definitely worth a stab, but I’m sticking with the much easier task.
