By Robert Sanchez
It’s a new week and if you haven’t scoured the internet for the best available MLB player prop bets for today, have no fear because I’ve done all the dirty work for you.
The last time I gave out player prop bets, they both hit with Minnesota Twins’ Sonny Gray going over 4.5 strikeouts and New York Yankees’ Nestor Cortes going under 5.5 strikeouts. And yet, something was missing. What could it be?
You all must know me well enough by now to gather that I’m talking about a home run prop bet. That’s right, they’re back (and better than ever, I might add). With an amazing 17-game slate of games to choose from, there was a ton of numbers to look at and statistics to parse through. No matter.
I think I’ve found two, yes two, home run prop bets for tonight that I like to cash easily. They’re both big plus-money plays and happen to come from the same game. So, let’s see if I can improve my 2-1 home run prop record to 4-1 with just about 20 games remaining in the regular season.
KC @ MIN, 7:40 p.m., Luis Arraez +1060 (FanDuel)
I know what you must be thinking, but allow me to explain. First of all, as always, let’s look at who Arraez will be facing tonight. The Kansas City Royals will be giving the ball to Kris Bubic who has been dreadful this season.
In 24 games (23 starts), Bubic is 2-11 with a 5.40 ERA, 1.64 WHIP and has given up 16 home runs in 111.2 innings this season. On the road, the left-hander has allowed nine homers in 52.2 innings and if we extrapolate those numbers over a full season (~200 innings), it comes out to around 35 home runs. Not good, yet somehow better than his career road numbers of 28 home runs allowed in 139.1 innings pitched. Yikes.
Having last pitched on Sept. 6, Bubic is pitching on 6 days of rest and that hasn’t exactly worked out for him either. In 19.1 innings pitched on 6+ days of rest, Bubic owns a 7.45 ERA (!) and has allowed three home runs in five starts.
It gets worse. In 14 starts at night this year, the Stanford product has given up 12 home runs in 73.2 innings and he’s pitched particularly bad against teams equal to or above .500 (13 homers in 68.1 innings). And even though the Twins have fallen a game below .500 thanks to a 2-8 record over their last 10 games, they’ve been above .500 for most of the season and I feel confident that this stat still applies to them.
So, now that we know Bubic is likely to give up some home runs tonight, it’s time to choose who’s going to take him deep. For that, we must look at how he’s fared against 1-9 in any given lineup. Thankfully, Bubic makes things very easy for us. This season, Bubic has allowed 11 out of the 16 home runs he’s given up to the top three hitters. These numbers are very consistent with his career numbers as the top three hitters have always given him fits.
So why Arraez? Well, he’s leading off tonight and bats from the left side and for the season, lefties are slashing .363/.464/.626 with six home runs against Bubic in just 91 at-bats. In fact, for whatever reason, lefties have always given the southpaw trouble during his three-year career.
Right now, you may be wondering why Arraez is such a long shot to go deep tonight. While it’s true Arraez is not exactly a home run hitter (14 home runs in 1,348 career at bats), he’s shown a propensity to go yard this season with eight of those home runs coming this year — more than half of his career total. Even better, he’s hit seven of those home runs at home this season and five home runs coming from the leadoff spot, so he’s certainly capable.
As if you needed any more reason to take this pick, priced at an insane +1060, you should know Arraez has been a thorn in the Royals’ side ever since he broke into the majors, slashing .377/.450/.432 against Kansas City. Even though he’s never gone deep against them in his career, with numbers like those and against a pitcher like Bubic, it’s only a matter of time.
If you want to take over 1.5 hits (+195, FanDuel) or even over 1.5 total bases (+125, FanDuel), you have my blessing. But against a pitcher who gives up bombs, I’m going for the big blow here.
KC @ MIN, 7:40 p.m., Carlos Correa +450 (DraftKings)
Staying in Minnesota, I’m very confused as to why Correa to hit a home run is almost 5/1. Not just because of all the reasons mentioned above, but because over his last seven games, Correa has been tearing the cover off the ball, slashing .387/.406/.710 with three home runs.
Unlike Arraez, Correa is a home run hitter and has hit 19 dingers this season. I suppose it’s because, unlike Arraez, Correa bats from the right side and against right-handed hitters, Bubic has been slightly better in his career.
Still, for a player with Correa’s track record and how he’s been hitting lately, +450 is a steal. And it’s not as though Correa struggles against lefties, quite the opposite actually. Against southpaws this season, Correa has an .854 OPS, almost identical to his career .855 OPS against lefties.
In the two-hole, the 6-foot-4, 220-pound shortstop has hit 23 career home runs in 112 games and 16 in 85 games this season. He’s also hit better at home this season than on the road and has hit more than double the amount of home runs in night games than in day games in just 89 more at-bats.
I expect the Twins to jump Bubic early and often and love for them to score in the first inning (+200, DraftKings).
