By Robert Sanchez
Oh, the NFL kicks off tonight? That’s news to me, I was too busy looking at today’s MLB slate and trying to find a prop bet winner for you guys.
And as it turns out, I think I’ve found one. Two, in fact.
Don’t get me wrong, with only seven games to choose from it was definitely a challenge. But, to quote Cotton McKnight from the movie Dodgeball: A True Underdog Story, September baseball is where we separate the wheat from the chaff, the men from the boys and the awkwardly feminine from the possibly Canadian.
So, without further ado, here are my best player prop bets for tonight:
MIN @ NYY, 7:05 p.m., Nestor Cortes u5.5 Ks -158 (FanDuel)
Making his first start since landing on the IL in the middle of August, Cortes starts off by facing the Minnesota Twins who rank in the bottom third of the league in strikeouts (1,114).
The last time Cortes faced the Twins came on June 8 when the All-Star pitched just 4.1 innings and gave up four runs on seven hits, including two home runs and only struck out three.
It should also be especially difficult for Cortes to go over this number given that his manager Aaron Boone said pregame that the left-hander won’t go that deep into the game and that he’ll be conservative with how he uses him.
In 23 starts this season, Cortes has struck out less than six hitters in 13 of them (57 percent). In 11 home starts, he has gone below this number six times (55 percent) and those were all when he was fully healthy and not on a shortened leash.
After Gerrit Cole pitched 6.2 innings on Wednesday night and the Yankees only needing to use one reliever, I suspect Cortes to pitch at most five innings before Boone goes to his bullpen — and that’s if he isn’t shelled or suffers any kind of setback.
MIN @ NYY, 7:05 p.m., Sonny Gray o4.5 Ks -132 (FanDuel)
Staying in the Bronx, the former Yankee Sonny Gray takes the bump for the Twins to take on his old squad. And although Gray didn’t find much success in New York, facing them tonight should be a much different story.
First of all, this lineup isn’t your grandpa’s Yankees’ lineup. With the Bronx Bombers getting gutted with injuries lately — DJ LeMahieu being the latest to end up on the IL — this once formidable roster is now a shell of itself.
Aside from Aaron Judge, who continues to have an MVP-caliber season, you couldn’t tell the difference between Thursday’s Yankees lineup from their Triple-A team in Scranton/Wilkes-Barre.
Just as a reference, Isiah Kiner-Falefa — off of his grand slam from last night — and all of his three home runs this season is batting cleanup.
Even when the Yankees were healthy, lately they’ve looked terrible at the plate (except for Judge) and have seen their once double-digit lead in the division shrink to just five games thanks to the struggling offense.
So, even though Gray doesn’t strike out the world, let’s pretend he’s on a rehab assignment and facing a bunch of Triple-A hitters because that’s not that far off from the truth.
But if numbers are your thing, here you go: Gray has gone over this number in 11 of 21 starts this season and has really stepped it up since the All-Star break, going from 8.1 K/9 in the first half to 9.5 K/9 in the second half.
On five days of rest this season, his K/9 jumps to 9.7 which is higher than both four days of rest and 6+ days of rest.
If Gray can go six or even seven innings, which Minnesota likely needs him to do after using almost all of their relievers in Wednesday’s doubleheader, this bet should cash easily.
