By Robert Sanchez
With Kansas City Royals’ Salvador Perez to hit a home run at +255 cashing on Tuesday night, I’ve now hit two home run prop bets in a row. While that’s all well and good, I want more. And even though they say it can’t be done, I’m looking to go 3-for-3 with today’s action.
Despite slim pickings in MLB today with just eight games to choose from, I think I’ve found yet another winner.
So, without further ado, here’s who I like to hit a home run today:
OAK @ WSH, 4:05 p.m., Sean Murphy +330 (FanDuel)
Once again, before we even look at Murphy’s numbers let’s first analyze the starting pitcher for the Washington Nationals. Today the Nats will hand the ball over to Paolo Espino which hasn’t worked out well for them this season.
Espino, a swing guy who has been used in the bullpen as well as a starter this year, is 0-6 on the season with a 4.35 ERA. Since making the full-time switch from the bullpen to the starting rotation on June 12, Espino has been a disaster. In 14 starts, the right-hander has surrendered 15 home runs in in 64.1 innings compared to just two home runs in 26.2 innings pitched as a reliever.
Dating back to last year when Washington used Espino in a similar role, in 19 starts he gave up 16 home runs in 86.0 innings. In 23.2 innings pitched out of the bullpen, he allowed three home runs. That’s quite the contrast.
Clearly, Espino is best suited as a relief pitcher but if the Nationals continue to send him out there as a starter they should expect him to continue giving up the long ball which is good for us.
But it gets better.
In eight starts on four days rest this season, Espino has let up eight home runs spanning 37.0 innings. In nine starts under the same circumstance last season, he allowed 11 homers in 40.2 innings. Also, in day games this year, Espino has surrendered five home runs in 25.1 innings and it was even worse in 2021 when he gave up 11 long balls in just 41.0 innings during the afternoon.
Finally, throughout his career Espino has been susceptible to right-handed hitters taking him deep and that’s been especially true this season as righties are slashing .279/.315/.512 against him with 12 home runs.
So, while the first four batters in the lineup have hit 14 of the 17 home runs he’s allowed this season, Murphy and Dermis Garcia are the only right-handed hitters.
And that brings us to Murphy. Not only is Murphy red-hot at the plate over his last seven games and coming off the best month of his season that saw him hit five home runs with a .975 OPS, he also already hit a home run during this series. In the two games he’s played at Nationals Park, he’s hitting .500 with an insane 1.431 OPS. In fact, Murphy prefers to hit away from home and has hit 13 more homers on the road in just seven more games played in his career.
Murphy also matches up very well against Espino, despite having never faced him. Against “finesse” pitchers, Murphy is slashing .273/.336/.501 with 19 home runs — way better than his numbers against “power” pitchers or “average power” pitchers.
Meanwhile, Espino features a four-pitch arsenal: four-seam fastball, slider, curveball, changeup, none of which he throws with any real velocity topping out at 91.3 mph on his fastball. If Espino gives Murphy anything to hit, Murphy should crush it.
Even if Espino gets pulled from the game early, which is entirely possible for the reasons mentioned above, Murphy has a great chance at getting it done against the Nationals’ bullpen who has given up 67 home runs this season which is tied for the second-most in the NL.
Ideally, Murphy would be catching and batting third where he’s had the most success in his career instead of DHing and batting second where he’s had little experience but the numbers are just too good to pass up. However, if you want a Plan B, the aforementioned Garcia who has been tearing it up in limited playing time as a rookie is also a good bet at +360 on FanDuel.
