By Robert Sanchez
After hitting my first MLB player prop bet with Seattle Mariners’ Mitch Haniger to hit a home run on Thursday afternoon at +330, in the first inning I might add, I’m back to uncover another winner.
Today’s MLB slate is a full one with the first game starting at 6:10 p.m so let’s get right to it.
Here’s who I like to hit a home run tonight:
KC @ CWS, 8:10 p.m., Salvador Perez +255 (FanDuel)
I would’ve liked this number to be higher and am a little surprised that we’re getting just over 5/2 odds here, but I suppose when a hitter has owned a pitcher like Salvador Perez has owned Lucas Giolito, the books take notice. Actually, this number is much better than what most other books are offering which is why it’s always a smart idea to shop around.
In any event, the first thing that stood out to me for this pick is Perez’s numbers against Giolito. In 28 career at-bats against the righty, Perez is hitting .357 with three home runs and two doubles which is a great place to start.
Even without those numbers, it’s likely I would’ve picked, if not Perez, somebody on the Royals to hit a home run tonight because of Giolito’s inability to keep the ball in the yard, especially when he pitches at home.
In 391.1 innings that spans 72 games (70 starts), Giolito has given up an insane 68 home runs at Guaranteed Rate Field. In 10 starts this season, he’s given up nine homers. Even better, in 19 starts against the Royals, Giolito has let up 15 dingers despite pitching to a 3.45 ERA. Of those 15 home runs allowed, nine of them have come while pitching at home in just 45 innings.
While pitching at home gives Giolito fits, pitching at night might be even more difficult for him. In 511.2 innings pitched in night games, Giolito has given up an astonishing 83 home runs which is perfect for Perez who has hit 14 of his 18 home runs this season at night in a similar amount of plate appearances as day games.
Because Giolito allows so many home runs, it’s actually difficult to pinpoint exactly one hitter who will take him deep. Normally, a pitcher will have two or three spots in the order who he struggles with but in Giolito’s case, the 1-8 hitters have all hit at least 12 home runs off of him during his career so almost anybody has the ability to go yard against him.
However, this season right-handed hitters have mashed versus Giolito and have hit 14 of the 19 home runs he’s given up. Aside from Perez, there’s really only two other right-handed hitters in the Royals’ lineup that are capable of going deep and they are Hunter Dozier and Bobby Witt Jr.
Dozier has not had much success against Giolito in his career but Witt Jr. has some pop and has already hit one over the fence against Giolito. If you’re worried the White Sox have circled Perez as the one guy they won’t allow to beat them, Witt Jr. at +350 on FanDuel also provides value. Both Perez and Witt Jr. have been hitting the ball well over their last seven games and I don’t see why it doesn’t continue tonight.
